June 25, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Our live coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine has moved here.

Russia is exporting as much oil now as it did before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It's just selling to different buyers.

After the pandemic and war in Ukraine, and the inflation shock that followed, the global economy is in a precarious state. The last thing it needs right now is another nasty surprise.

That’s what it nearly got this weekend as disaffected Russian mercenaries marched toward Moscow, drawing a stark warning from President Vladimir Putin that the country was on the brink of a 1917-style “civil war.”

The armed insurrection has been defused — for now — but the most serious challenge to Putin’s authority in 23 years could still usher in a period of turmoil and change.

Russia has dropped out of the ranks of the top 10 economies in the world, with a gross domestic product roughly the size of Australia’s, but it remains one of the biggest suppliers of energy to global markets — including China and India — despite Western sanctions imposed in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

On Saturday, a fellow global energy power, Qatar, expressed “great concern” about the situation in Russia.

“The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine will have negative repercussions on international security and peace, as well as on food and energy supplies,” Qatar’s foreign ministry said in response to news of the rebellion.

Any meaningful loss of Russian energy would force China and India to compete with Western nations for supplies from other producers. If political chaos restricts exports of other commodities, such as grains or fertilizer, that could also send supply and demand out of whack. And that could push up prices for everyone.

Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics and co-founder at Energy Aspects, said markets would now need to figure out the extent to which prices should rise to reflect the greater risk to Russian supply, a view shared by other analysts.

Read the full analysis here.

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin pose for a photo during their meeting at the Kremlin on March 20.

China has voiced support for Russia after a short-lived insurrection posed the gravest challenge to the 23-year rule of Vladimir Putin, a close partner of Chinese leader Xi Jinping in his push for a new world order and strategic alignment against the US.

A day after Wagner mercenary fighters turned back from their march toward Moscow, ending a brief and chaotic uprising by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, Beijing released its first comment on what Putin had called an “armed rebellion.”

Beijing’s carefully crafted public comment came well after the brief mutiny had dissipated, with Prigozhin agreeing on Saturday to pull back his fighters in a deal with the Kremlin that would reportedly see him enter into exile in Belarus.

It also came after Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko flew to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials on Sunday, where the two sides reaffirmed their close partnership and political trust.

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Rudenko exchanged views on “Sino-Russian relations and international and regional issues of common concern,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a one-line statement posted on its website, with a photo showing the pair walking side by side while smiling.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Rudenko also held “scheduled consultations” with China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Editor’s Note: A version of this post appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here and read the full story here.

Joe Biden during an event in Washington, DC, on June 22.

As President Joe Biden was walking from the White House residence to a briefing on the unfolding crisis in Russia, not much was certain.

It wasn’t obvious, for example, how a column of Wagner group mercenaries rapidly advancing toward Moscow might affect the war in Ukraine. Nor was it clear whether Russian troops under the command of President Vladimir Putin had the will to fight them.

One thing, however, did seem apparent: whatever was happening on the M-4 highway in southern Russia had the potential to change the course of what has become a presidency-defining conflict.

Never in the 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine has Putin’s grip on power appeared as unsteady as it did this weekend. For Biden, the moment was a reminder of how unpredictable the crisis remains, even as American officials pore over intelligence for signs that Putin’s power is slipping.

A primary objective has been denying Putin a pretext for accusing the West of wanting him dead.

In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Biden emphasized the imperative in not lending any credibility to expected claims from Putin of Western interference.

The message, according to people familiar with the call, was to keep the temperature low and allow whatever was happening on the ground in Russia to play out. As Biden has told his team for months, his goal is to prevent “World War III.”

A message was also sent to the Russian government from the administration reinforcing that the US would not get involved, according to people familiar with the matter.

Now, Biden and his team are working to make sense of the past days’ events and determine what is next. The abrupt agreement brokered by Belarus to end the crisis has hardly given American officials confidence that the situation is entirely defused. If anything, it could reinforce existing doubts inside Russia about Putin’s leadership, according to US officials.

Read more here.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the brief and chaotic insurrection in Russia led by the Wagner paramilitary group shows “cracks” in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s role as a leader of the country.

The comments from the nation’s top diplomat underscore the short-lived intensity of a crisis that started when Yevegeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, marched his fighters toward Moscow, taking control of Russian military facilities along the way.

Prigozhin on Friday openly accused Russia’s military of attacking a Wagner camp and killing a “huge amount” of his men. For months, he had railed against Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the country’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, whom he blames for Moscow’s faltering invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin responded to the show of force from the Wagner Group by deploying heavily armed troops to the streets of Moscow and warning residents to stay indoors.

By Saturday afternoon, the Kremlin said a deal had been reached to end the insurrection, with Prigozhin heading to neighboring Belarus and Wagner fighters turning back from their march.

US intelligence had painted a grim picture, with the expectation that Prigozhin’s march toward Moscow would encounter much more resistance and be “a lot more bloody than it was,” according to one US official.

Read more here.

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.

The Russian State Duma, or lower house of parliament, is working on a law to regulate the Wagner Group, according to Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Defense Committee.

There’s been considerable speculation about Wagner’s future since its chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a rebellion this weekend.

Prigozhin was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday in a black SUV after the Kremlin said a deal had been brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in which Prigozhin had agreed to go to Belarus and end his rebellion.

Prigozhin himself has not confirmed the deal.

Meanwhile, the official Belarus news agency said Sunday that Lukashenko spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin again on Sunday morning.

Belarusian officials tell CNN they have no details on what Prigozhin’s status will be in Belarus and could not confirm whether Prigozhin had already arrived in the country.

Here are the latest developments:

US President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke Sunday following the short-lived insurrection by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters from the Wagner private military company, the White House announced.

 Earlier on Sunday, Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about developments in Russia.

Biden is currently at Camp David and is expected to return to the White House on Sunday evening.

Desperately projecting that everything is as it was, the Kremlin is only emphasizing how much has changed.

These were 36 hours that provided a glimpse of the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Almost every action was improbable, at best a week ago – much was inconceivable, 17 months ago.

A loyal henchman, Yevgeny Prigozhin, slams the premise of the invasion of Ukraine, then claims an airstrike targeted his troops, before taking a major military town without clashes, and then marching to within a few hundred miles of Moscow. But suddenly he executes a baffling reversal, turning back to avoid bloodshed, as the Kremlin claims Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus whom Putin seems to treat with contempt, brokered a dramatic reprieve, in which the insurrectionist who has his armor bound for Moscow, now opts for exile in Minsk.

Even as the dust settles, it still makes little sense. It is important to remember we have yet to hear from Prigozhin that he has accepted exile in Belarus and see evidence his units have genuinely all stood down. He is an open proliferator of misinformation. We should be equally suspicious of the apparent bow with which Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tried to tie this startling episode up with on Saturday night. Two hours earlier, Wagner’s forces were at the gates of the capital (almost), and then suddenly everything is forgiven.

There are large parts of this story missing. We may never learn what they are. Many emotions could have altered Prigozhin’s course. Was the advance north too easy? Did he accept entering the capital would leave his men vulnerable, even to a weak Russian military response? Was the regular military not joining him in large enough numbers? Did he believe a climbdown would only grow his support? While on the surface, Prigozhin’s climbdown makes him appear weak, even finished, he has been the decision-maker over the past 36 hours.

Putin has been left reacting. Silent initially, and then bombastically angry and confident, promising “inevitable punishment” for the “scum.” But hours later, this was all forgotten. Putin’s emotional state – were it known – is arguably less revealing than his actions. By letting Prigozhin go, and apparently sweeping the entire insurrection under the carpet, he’s appeared the weakest yet in 23 years.

Read more

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at a news conference at the European Political Community Summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he has discussed the weekend’s events in Russia with several world leaders, including US President Joe Biden.

Zelensky said he also spoke Sunday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Polish President Andrzej Duda. 

Zelensky, who in an earlier Telegram post described his conversation with Biden as “positive and inspiring,” said his discussions also included the frontline situation and further strengthening of Ukrainian forces. 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he has spoken with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about events in Russia as well as Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

The wreckage of a Russian air force Ilyushin-22 in a rural area of southern Russia.

Social media video and images have emerged showing the wreckage of a military aircraft reportedly brought down by the Wagner Group in a rural area of southern Russia.

The plane’s markings showed that it was a Russian Air Force Ilyushin-22, an aircraft sometimes used as an airborne command and communications center.

The Russian Defense Ministry has not commented on the loss of any Il-22 planes.

The cause of the crash is not clear, but footage that captured its plunge to Earth indicated it had been struck by a missile or rocket.

A Russian military blogger said Saturday that the Wagner forces had shot down an Il-22 aircraft carrying 10 people.

Irina Kuksenkova, a correspondent of Russian state Channel One, said the plane came down near Voronezh, and that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had offered to compensate the dead crew’s relatives.

Prigozhin has not commented on the crash but claimed Saturday that a Russian combat helicopter was brought down. Video also emerged Sunday of the wreckage of a Ka-52 helicopter in the Talovsky district of the Voronezh region.

 A Russian military blogger claimed that the helicopter had been shot down by Wagner and said the crew had been killed.

A Ukrainian soldier rides a Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicle near Bakhmut on June 25.

Frontlines across Ukraine have seen heavy combat over the past two days, with more than 20 engagements occurring in areas in the Donetsk region – chiefly Lyman, Marinka and Bakhmut, according to the Ukrainian military.

In its operational update, the General Staff said the Russians also carried out 25 air strikes over the past day.

There had been heavy Russian artillery and mortar fire in the Kupyansk area of Kharkiv, where the Russians have been trying to break through for over a month, the Ukrainians said.

The General Staff insisted all Russian efforts to take territory had been foiled. Across the Donetsk frontlines, the fighting was characterized by exchanges of indirect fire, but with little movement.

However, the Ukrainians say they are on the front foot around Bakhmut.

Nearly 200 Russian soldiers had been killed in the last day, and a variety of Russian equipment had been destroyed, according to Cherevatyi.

CNN cannot verify Ukrainian claims of battlefield gains, or casualties.

In the south, where Ukrainian forces have attempted to break through Russian lines, the General Staff said a Russian effort to regain lost positions in the area of Novodarivka had also failed.

Russian artillery continued to strike about 30 settlements along the frontlines in the Zaporizhzhia region, it said.

In Kherson, Nataliya Humenyuk, a spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in the south, said the Russians struggled to regain positions on the east bank of the river Dnipro, which was flooded by the recent damage to the dam at Nova Kakhovka. 

US President Joe Biden walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv on February 20.

US President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Sunday, a White House official said.

They discussed Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive, and President Biden reaffirmed unwavering US support, including through continued security, economic and humanitarian aid. The leaders also discussed recent events in Russia. 

Zelensky also tweeted about the call earlier, saying the two leaders “discussed the course of hostilities and the processes taking place in Russia.”

“The world must put pressure on Russia until international order is restored,” Zelensky wrote.

See the full tweet:

UN Secretary-General António Guterres speaks during a news conference at the United Nation's offices in Nairobi on May 3.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Sunday urged all parties involved “to act responsibly and with a view to avoid further tensions” in a statement released In response to recent events in Russia.

The Russian State Duma, or lower house of parliament, is working on a law to regulate the Wagner Group, according to Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Defense Committee.

There’s been considerable speculation about Wagner’s future since its chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a rebellion this weekend.

Kartapolov’s remarks echo those of Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who said Saturday that an agreement had been reached on “the return of PMC Wagner to their locations. Part of them, those who will wish to do so, will subsequently sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense — this concerns those who did not take part in the march” ordered by Prigozhin.

Members of Wagner group sit atop a tank in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.

As the picture became more clear to US intelligence analysts that Yevgeny Prigozhin was about to mobilize his Wagner troops inside Russia, the expectation was that his march toward Moscow would encounter much more resistance and be “a lot more bloody than it was.” 

There was surprise, a US official said, that Russia’s professional military didn’t do a better job of confronting Wagner troops as they moved into Rostov and up toward Moscow.

Compounding that surprise, a US official said, was the swiftness of the deal that was struck on Saturday, which the Kremlin said was brokered by Belarus.

In the end there was no fight for Moscow, where fierce resistance would have been expected. Prigozhin’s stated reason for ending Wagner’s march was a desire to avoid bloodshed, he said. 

What Prigozhin’s ultimate aim was in his short-lived campaign remains uncertain.

In the days leading up to Wagner’s march, US intelligence assessed that he was going to challenge Russian leadership, multiple sources said, but whether that was to Putin himself or the military leadership he had long railed against is unclear.

People stand near the closed Red Square in Moscow, Russia, on June 25.

A CNN team observed Moscow’s Red Square blocked off on Sunday, a day after Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his short-lived insurrection. 

Metal partitions were seen blocking access to the city center and a few security officers were present. Pedestrians were walking on the streets next to the square. 

Red Square was also closed off on Saturday.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.

The press service of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Concord management company has responded to an email inquiry from CNN about the Wagner chief’s whereabouts.

CNN asked: “There have been no messages from Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin since yesterday evening. Could you clarify where he is now and whether he indeed accepted the conditions proposed by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko?”

The response read: “All your questions have been forwarded to Yevgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin]. He sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he has proper communication.”

Prigozhin was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday in a black SUV after the Kremlin said a deal had been brokered by Lukashenko in which Prigozhin had agreed to go to Belarus and end his rebellion.

Prigozhin himself has not confirmed the deal.

The official Belarus news agency said Sunday that Lukashenko spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin again on Sunday morning.

Belarusian officials tell CNN they have no details on what Prigozhin’s status will be in Belarus and could not confirm whether Prigozhin had already arrived in the country.

A local official in Russia’s Voronezh region said 19 houses were damaged during clashes with the private military, Wagner Group, on Saturday.  

The group successfully took over military facilities in the southwestern Russian city on Saturday as part of an attempted armed rebellion. 

Yantsov committed to helping homeowners to repair the damage to their house and receive compensation, saying: “We will definitely help them.” 

He thanked residents of the region for their “resilience” in bearing with the restrictions put in place in the region following Saturday’s events.

US President Joe Biden attends a meeting in San Francisco, California, on June 20.

As US President Joe Biden was walking from the White House residence to a briefing on the unfolding crisis in Russia, not much was certain.

It wasn’t obvious, for example, how a column of Wagner group mercenaries rapidly advancing toward Moscow might affect the war in Ukraine. Nor was it clear whether Russian troops under the command of President Vladimir Putin had the will to fight them.

One thing, however, did seem apparent: whatever was happening on the M-4 highway in southern Russia had the potential to change the course of what has become a presidency-defining conflict.

Never in the 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine has Putin’s grip on power appeared as unsteady as it did this weekend. For Biden, the moment was a reminder of how unpredictable the crisis remains, even as American officials pore over intelligence for signs that Putin’s power is slipping.

A primary objective has been denying Putin a pretext for accusing the West of wanting him dead.

In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Biden emphasized the imperative in not lending any credibility to expected claims from Putin of Western interference.

The message, according to people familiar with the call, was to keep the temperature low and allow whatever was happening on the ground in Russia to play out. As Biden has told his team for months, his goal is to prevent “World War III.”

A similar message went out from Washington to American embassies, who were told, if asked by their host governments, to convey “the United States has no intention of involving itself in this matter.”

Otherwise, the diplomatic outposts were instructed to “not pro-actively engage host government officials” on the matter, according to a person familiar with the message.

A message was also sent to the Russian government from the administration reinforcing that the US would not get involved, according to people familiar with the matter.

Now, Biden and his team are working to make sense of the past days’ events and determine what is next. The abrupt agreement brokered by Belarus to end the crisis has hardly given American officials confidence that the situation is entirely defused. If anything, it could reinforce existing doubts inside Russia about Putin’s leadership, according to US officials.

Read more.

Ukraine claimed Sunday it has improved its “tactical position” in its defense against Russia in the south and has achieved “partial success” in its counteroffensive in the Tavria area.  

In the past 24 hours, Russian troops shelled nine regions of Ukraine, with “various types of weapons — grenade launchers, mortars, tanks, artillery, MLRS, SAMs, and tactical aircraft — attacking 40 villages and hitting infrastructure, according to military leaders.” 

“In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy continues to focus its main efforts on preventing the advance of our troops. They carried out air strikes in the areas of Orikhiv, Novodanylivka, Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region. They shelled the settlements of Novodarivka, Levadne, Poltavka, Zaliznychne, Huliaipole, Huliaipilske, Charivne, Bilohirya, Orikhiv, Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia region with artillery.”  

There is ongoing fighting in the Mariinka area of Donetsk on Sunday.