Where things stand
• Iran’s diplomatic push: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Russia ahead of a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, following meetings with key mediators in Pakistan and Oman over the weekend.
• Red lines: Araghchi gave Pakistani officials a list of Tehran’s “red lines” to be conveyed to the US. The red lines included “nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz.”
• Peace talks stalled: US President Donald Trump on Sunday defended his decision to cancel his envoys’ trip to Pakistan, saying Iranian authorities “can call” if they want, while reiterating the war could “come to an end very soon.”
• Oil at a three-week high: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is up 2.5% to nearly $108 a barrel – its highest level in three weeks.
• Lebanon: Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed 14 people Sunday, marking the deadliest day since the April 17 truce.
Goldman Sachs sees sharply higher oil prices by the end of the year
Goldman Sachs has raised its crude oil price forecasts for the rest of this year because of lower supply from the Middle East, highlighting the risk of longer-lasting energy market disruption from the Iran war.
The bank now estimates that Brent crude prices will average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, from $80 previously. It sees WTI, the US benchmark, at $83 a barrel, versus $75 previously. Crude oil prices have risen around 40% since the war started, with the price of Brent trading at a three-week high Monday.
In a note Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned of “larger” economic risks because of “upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”
Goldman’s base forecast assumes that Gulf oil exports will normalize by the end of June, later than its previous estimate of mid-May. Gulf oil production is also expected to take longer to recover.
In an “adverse scenario” in which Gulf exports normalize only by the end of July, Goldman sees Brent averaging just over $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
Oil traders also think higher prices will be with us for some time yet. Futures contracts show Brent hovering between $86 and $90 a barrel in the final quarter of the year — up significantly from $73 a barrel, where it was trading just before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Investment bank Citi has also raised its Brent oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, with its base case forecast at $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter, Reuters reported.
US gas prices rise to $4.11 a gallon
US gas prices edged up another penny to $4.11 for a gallon of regular, according to the latest reading from AAA.
The rise marked the fifth straight day of price increases, following a two-week stretch of falling prices earlier this month that had taken prices down to $4.02. But prices are still below the recent peak of $4.17 that had been reached on April 9.
That peak came two days after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the war in Iran. But the Strait of Hormuz has sinced remained essentially closed to tanker traffic.
Global oil futures were higher in trading Monday after Iran said over the weekend that “under no circumstances” will the strait be open to traffic as it was before the war.
US-Iran talks stalled over the weekend. Catch up on where that leaves the conflict now
Talks between the US and Iran stalled once again over the weekend, a stalemate confirmed when President Donald Trump canceled his negotiating team’s tentatively planned trip to Islamabad, about an hour after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital.
Araghchi was visiting Islamabad for meetings with Pakistan’s top leadership and there was, briefly, a window when it seemed as if the US negotiating team – the familiar duo of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – might be in the same city.
Why was the trip canceled? Trump cited “infighting and confusion” within the Iranian leadership for calling off Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Islamabad. His envoys would have “too much time wasted on traveling,” he added, with little chance of a breakthrough to show for it.
Were Iran and the US even scheduled to talk? While the White House claimed the Iranians had requested an in-person meeting, semi-official Iranian state media denied any reports that Araghchi would speak with his American counterparts. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly said it will not negotiate while a blockade on its ports remains in place. A further complication is that Witkoff is perceived as untrustworthy by Iranian negotiations, according to sources familiar with the talks. So it isn’t exactly clear if any talks were ever scheduled in the first place.
What comes next? Trump has said that canceling this trip does not signal a return to fighting. Instead, it seems a standoff of sorts will persist for now as the US continues blockading Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. As for any future talks, Trump said the Iranians “can come to us, or they can call us.” Araghchi, meanwhile, has embarked on an intensive diplomatic push, traveling to Oman, returning to Islamabad, holding phone calls with several regional counterparts and meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
CNN’s Kit Maher, Nic Robertson, Sophia Saifi, Sana Noor Haq, Ibrahim Dahman, Dalia Abdelwahab, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Riane Lumer, Jonny Hallam and Mounira Elsamra contributed reporting.
Iranian cargo still transiting Hormuz despite US blockade
Most ships that have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days have taken a route designated by Iranian authorities, and about half of them loaded at Iranian ports, according to the latest shipping data.
That’s in defiance of a US blockade designed to prevent ships from using Iranian ports. US interceptions of Iranian shipping have occurred beyond the strait. It remains unclear whether any of the ships leaving Iran have been intercepted.
Seventeen ships were identified as crossing through the strait between Friday and Sunday, according to marine intelligence firm Kpler – among them four large loaded tankers. Two of those tankers had left Iranian ports and two had departed from the United Arab Emirates.
The largest, according to Kpler, was the Greek-owned Jiaolong, which left the UAE Friday and arrived Monday at the Indian port of Sikka.
Traffic through Hormuz over the past two months has run at about 5% of the pre-war daily average, causing shortages of refined products, especially in Asia.
Iran has said it will maintain control over the Strait, while the US announced a blockade of shipping to and from Iranian ports on April 13.
Since then, the US military has boarded at least two ships and says it has intercepted 38.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that Iran would soon have to stop producing crude for lack of storage and export routes.
Iranian state media has denied the country lacks storage for its oil.
As the paralysis of the Strait continues, analyst Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year to $90 a barrel for Brent crude.
German consumer confidence at three-year low as Iran war takes toll
Consumer confidence in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, has fallen to a three-year low, as households brace for price increases because of a rise in energy costs.
The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, dropped further in May from the previous month. A similar survey of British consumer morale last week also showed confidence at its lowest since 2023.
“Income expectations are literally collapsing because of rising inflation. And in this context, people also currently believe that the timing for major purchases is less favorable,” the NIM’s Rolf Bürkl, who oversees the survey, said in a statement.
Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.7% in March due to rising energy prices because of the Iran war, “leading the majority of consumers to once again expect price increases,” the survey noted. “The war in Iran continues to dampen economic prospects,” it added.
A survey from the European Central Bank earlier on Monday showed companies in the bloc expect to raise prices significantly over the coming year as a result of higher input costs.
The German Chemical Industry Association told CNN last week that the Iran war had dealt a “significant blow” to hopes for an improvement this year in Germany’s economic fortunes.
The European Union has spent an additional an additional €24 billion ($28 billion) on energy imports since the start of the war – or more than $587 million a day – “without receiving a single extra molecule of energy,” the European Commission said last week.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill 14 people, marking deadliest day since truce
Israeli strikes killed 14 people – including two children – in southern Lebanon on Sunday, according to Lebanese health officials. It marks the deadliest day since Washington announced a ten-day ceasefire between Israel and the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah on April 16, which has been extended by three weeks.
Seven people were killed on Saturday, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
In total, 47 people have been killed by Israeli fire since the truce came into effect midnight local time on April 17, according to a CNN tally of daily figures released by Lebanon’s health ministry.
Hezbollah said it launched five attacks on the Israeli military in Lebanon Sunday, including one that killed an Israeli soldier in the southern town of Taybeh. Earlier Sunday, the Israeli military said it intercepted three drones before they crossed the border.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told CNN in a Sunday statement that forces “conducted artillery and aerial strikes targeting terrorists and military infrastructure sites” belonging to Hezbollah.
Rights groups say Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon is mirroring tactics used in Gaza – from heavy strikes on critical infrastructure and healthcare facilities, to the targeting of journalists and psychological warfare.
The Israeli military raided the northern town of Zawtar al-Sharqiya on Sunday, attacking and destroying a mosque, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported. Along a belt of neighborhoods below the Litani River, the military targeted homes and infrastructure up to the town of Yaroun, about 23 kilometers (14 miles) south, near the border with Israel, NNA added.
CNN’s Eugenia Yosef contributed reporting.
Oil at a three-week high after US-Iran peace talks stall
Oil prices are climbing today, after US officials cancelled a planned trip to Pakistan over the weekend for peace talks, dimming hopes for a swift end to a conflict that has choked off much of the Middle East’s vast oil and natural gas supplies from global markets.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is up 2.5% to nearly $108 a barrel — it’s highest level in three weeks, when the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran started. WTI, the US benchmark, is up 2.2% to $96.4 a barrel.
As the conflict nears the two-month mark, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of this year to $90 a barrel for Brent, from $80 previously. The bank sees WTI at $83 a barrel, versus $75 previously.
In a note Sunday, the bank’s analysts warned of “larger” economic risks because of “upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”
Iran warned Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz, ordinarily a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, will not return to its pre-war state. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated that the war could “come to an end very soon.”
Equity investors appear to be betting on that outcome, buoyed too by optimism over artificial intelligence, with a raft of major tech companies reporting earnings this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs Friday, although US futures are flat this morning.
In Asia, most major stock indexes closed strongly higher today, although Hong Kong’s Hang Seng finished slightly lower. Stock markets in Europe are modestly higher in morning trade.
“The lack of progress on talks has failed to dent investor optimism,” said Neil Wilson, an investor strategist at Saxo Bank.
Maritime authorities warn of increased piracy threat in further disruption to global shipping
Maritime authorities have warned of an increased threat of piracy after a second cargo vessel was hijacked off Somalia this week, marking further disruptions to global commercial shipping.
“It has been reported that unauthorized persons have taken control of a cargo vessel which has been re-directed to within territorial waters,” the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Sunday.
The incident occurred six nautical miles off the coast of Garacad, Somalia, the UKMTO added.
The advisory came after a separate tanker was seized off Somali waters on Tuesday, according to the UKMTO. The vessel was boarded by “unauthorized persons” about 45 nautical miles northeast of Somalia’s Mareeyo and maneuvered into the country’s territorial waters, the UKMTO said in a statement Saturday.
The UKMTO has reported an “increased threat” of pirate activity off Somalia and warned vessels to “transit with caution.”
The Joint Maritime Information Center has also updated its piracy threat level to “substantial” around the Somali Coast and Somali Basin and warned vessels to “maintain heightened vigilance.”
“An oil-products tanker is reported to be held by pirates on the northeastern Somali coast. No injuries have been reported. Separately, a Pirate Action Group is reported to be active in the Somali Basin,” the JMIC said in a statement Sunday.
How China can benefit from the energy crisis
With oil-starved countries scrambling for fuel, one country is reaping the benefits from the global supply shock: China. CNN’s Stephanie Yang explains:
With oil-starved countries scrambling for fuel, one country is reaping the benefits from the global supply shock: China. CNN’s Stephanie Yang explains how China’s status as the renewables king of the planet is granting the country more influence with increasing exports of solar technology, batteries, and EVs.
The lawless floating gas station where Iranian oil changes hands
In the year leading up to its dramatic seizure by US forces in the Indian Ocean, the oil tanker known as the MT Tifani made several trips between Iran and a stretch of water off the coast of Malaysia, around 60 miles from the glitzy skyscrapers of Singapore.
During these trips, it often loitered in a small area before dropping anchor and switching off its mandatory automatic identification system (AIS), according to MarineTraffic data reviewed by CNN.
A while later — sometimes hours, sometimes days — the ship would reappear on AIS.
The seizure of the MT Tifani on Tuesday — and the 1.9 million barrels of Iranian oil US authorities say it was carrying — has pushed the war with Iran into the waters of the Indo-Pacific, thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf.
It’s also put a spotlight on this patch of water off Malaysia, roughly half the size of Rhode Island, which expert and CNN analysis shows acts as a floating gas station for Iran, used by its shadow fleet to trade and store oil, funneling desperately needed cash to the regime as the war grinds on.
Iran FM gave Pakistan list of "red lines" to be conveyed to the US, Iran media says
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gave a list of Iran’s “red lines” to be conveyed to the US during his recent trip to Pakistan, Iran state media Fars reported.
The news agency said the red lines included “nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz.”
But it added that the “exchange of messages is not related to Iran-US negotiations” and that it was to “clarify” the regional situation and Iran’s red lines.
No other details were provided.
Araghchi is currently in St. Petersburg where he is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He met key mediators in Pakistan and Oman over the weekend. Shortly after arriving in Russia, he told Iranian state media IRNA that in Pakistan they discussed the conditions under which Iran-US talks can resume.
President Donald Trump on Sunday defended his decision to cancel his envoys’ planned trip to Pakistan, saying Iranian authorities “can call” if they want to talk, while reiterating the war could “come to an end very soon.”
Iran's top diplomat says Russia trip "good opportunity" to discuss war developments
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his trip to St. Petersburg, where he is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, “is a good opportunity for us to consult with our Russian colleagues regarding the developments related to the war.”
Before arriving in Russia Monday, Araghchi met key mediators in Pakistan and Oman over the weekend. He said that in Pakistan they discussed the conditions under which Iran-US talks can resume. “We reviewed what has taken place in the negotiations so far and the conditions under which they can continue,” he said.
While in Oman, Araghchi said he discussed their shared interests in the Strait of Hormuz. “Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is now an important global issue, and naturally we must engage in dialogue with the coastal states of this strait so that our shared interests can be secured and we remain coordinated in any actions taken,” he said.
Besides talks with Putin, Araghchi said on his Telegram account that he will also meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.
Russia and Iran are longstanding partners and Moscow has been a critical diplomatic ally for Tehran throughout the war with the US. Russia is the latest stop on an overseas tour for Araghchi, which has also included Pakistan and Oman, while Washington-Tehran peace talks have stalled.
Video appears to show solar panels being damaged in Lebanon
Video geolocated by CNN appears to show solar panels being intentionally damaged in the southern Lebanese village Debel, where the Israeli military said it was investigating the incident.
The military said Saturday that it was investigating a video that appeared to show earth-moving equipment damaging solar panels and a vehicle.
“The actions seen in the video are not aligned with the values of the IDF and the behavior expected from its soldiers,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement to CNN. “The incident is under review. Steps will be taken in accordance with the findings.”
Debel is the same village where an Israeli soldier was photographed vandalizing a statue of Jesus Christ this month, causing international outrage. The town is currently occupied by Israeli troops, who residents say restrict most travel in and out of the community.
The IDF and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later apologized for the statue’s desecration, jailing two of the soldiers involved for 30 days and removing them from combat duty.
On Sunday, the IDF said that it would “examine” allegations of looting by troops in southern Lebanon, after a report in the newspaper Haaretz quoted anonymous soldiers who said that theft from Lebanese civilian homes and businesses is widespread.
The statement added that when provided sufficient evidence, “disciplinary and criminal measures are taken, including prosecution,” and that the Military Police Corps “conducts inspections at the northern border crossing during exit from the combat zone.”
Why Iran's top diplomat is in Russia
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in St. Petersburg, Russia on Monday ahead of planned talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian state media reported.
During their meeting, Araghchi and Putin will focus on “coordinating interactions and advancing joint programs at the regional and international levels,” Tehran’s ambassador to Mocow, Kazem Jalali, said in a post on X Sunday.
Russia and Iran are longstanding partners and Moscow has been a critical diplomatic ally for Tehran throughout the war with the US. The Kremlin has offered to take custody of Iran’s enriched uranium — proposing to store or reprocess it on Russian soil — though Trump reportedly rejected the offer.
Beyond uranium, Iran and Russia signed a 20-year treaty in January 2025 strengthening their economic, military and political partnership. Russia views US strikes on Iran as “unprovoked aggression,” but crucially, the agreement signed by Tehran and Moscow stopped short of a mutual-defense pact.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he “highly appreciated” Islamabad’s mediation efforts between Iran and the US in a recent call with his Pakistani counterpart Mohammad Ishaq Dar, while voicing Moscow’s “readiness to contribute.”
In March, CNN reported that Russia was providing Iran with intelligence about the locations and movements of American troops, ships and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue – the first indication that Moscow sought to get involved in the war.
Russia is the latest stop on Araghchi’s overseas tour, which also included meetings with key mediators in Pakistan and Oman on Sunday.
Iran's foreign minister is courting key allies as talks with the US stall. Catch up here
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has touched down in St. Petersburg, Russia ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, Iranian state media reported. With Washington-Tehran talks now stalled, the visit highlights Russia’s role as a critical diplomatic ally for Iran.
During their meeting, Araghchi and Putin will focus on “coordinating interactions and advancing joint programs at the regional and international levels,” Tehran’s ambassador to Moscow said.
Over in the US, President Donald Trump on Sunday defended his decision to cancel his envoys’ planned trip to Pakistan, saying Iranian authorities “can call” if they want to talk, while reiterating the war could “come to an end very soon.”
Here’s what else you need to know:
- Araghchi’s overseas tour: Before traveling to Russia, Araghchi met with key mediators in Pakistan and Oman on Sunday. He also made phone calls to counterparts in Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
- US blockade in action: The two-week-old US blockade has prevented 38 ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports, US Central Command said. Vessel traffic is still severely reduced compared to pre-war levels, according to MarineTraffic data, with only a handful of crossings reported Sunday.
- Tehran doubles down on naval pressure: Iran’s Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad warned the Strait of Hormuz will “under no circumstances” return to its previous state, Mehr reported, citing an order from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Nikzad said the war showed that choking Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could affect “25% of the world’s economy.” Vessel traffic is still severely reduced compared to pre-war levels, according to MarineTraffic data.
- Trump’s blockade claim disputed by experts: Trump’s claim that Iran’s oil lines could “explode” within three days because exports are blocked was disputed by experts, who said this is overstated. Producers typically cut output as storage fills rather than face inevitable explosions.
- Israel’s secret gift to the UAE: Israel secretly deployed an Iron Dome air defense system and dozens of soldiers to the United Arab Emirates during the war with Iran, an Israeli source told CNN on Sunday. The move marks a new level of cooperation between the former foes, who signed a normalization agreement under the Abraham Accords in 2020.
- Israel-Lebanon latest: The Israeli military ordered evacuations for seven villages in southern Lebanon on Sunday, saying Hezbollah ceasefire violations require action against “terror infrastructure.” The fragile ceasefire in Lebanon is under growing pressure as Israel and Hezbollah have increased attacks on each other. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said at least 2,509 people have been killed and 7,755 wounded since March 2.
What it was like in Pakistan's capital this weekend as US-Iran peace talks stalled
The trappings of imminent talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, have given way to almost normal life.
The road closures and checkpoints to help secure possible locations — which frustrated locals — are gone. The “red zone,” as it is known, is a government and diplomatic hub, and it has been the base for some of the United States’ security and logistics teams, who routinely protect US leaders overseas. They are also beginning a drawdown.
Ever since US President Donald Trump announced Vice President JD Vance could be coming for face-to-face talks with Iranian officials more than a week ago, the city has been snarled by traffic diverted to smaller roads, while local traders complain they have taken a hit to business.
The city is doubly invested in the talks, not just to enjoy the vibe of a city feeling it might just help world peace, but also hoping a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz could also end energy saving measures, which have thrust swathes of the capital into darkness and forced factories and restaurants to shut early.
No one is ruling out another lockdown, and US advance teams could get back here in a hurry — it all depends on what progress may happen in later talks and phone calls.
