What we're covering
• The third winter storm in a week is dumping snow on parts of the central US and is poised to deliver the first widespread snow of the season to the Northeast and New England.
• The storm will strengthen rapidly into a bomb cyclone as it moves up the East Coast Tuesday, with winds intensifying in coastal New England Tuesday night.
• Cities such as Philadelphia, New York and Boston along the Northeast’s highly populous I-95 corridor are likely to miss out on big snow, but could see flakes fly in the morning.
• It’s already cold, but even colder, record-breaking temperatures are possible in the wake of the storm east of the Rockies.
Here's what today's storm looks like from space
This satellite image captures the huge shield of clouds from the winter storm that stretches from the Gulf to Canada.
Stormy weather is spreading over a significant portion of the central US this afternoon. Snow is falling from Missouri north into parts of the Great Lakes while rain soaks portions of the Gulf Coast.
What’s left of the storm that blew through the eastern half of the country this weekend can be spotted too. It’s the line of clouds that stretches from out near Canada’s Newfoundland Province all the way back to the Southeast.
One-third of the US is covered by snow
There’s more snow on the ground across the Lower 48 than there has been in the last six years to kick off meteorological winter.
Meteorological winter begins on December 1 and a cold and stormy finish to November pushed snow cover for the date to 33.4% as of Monday morning, according to a NOAA analysis.
The last time there was this much snow on the ground on December 1 was 2019 when 41% of the Lower 48 was covered – that’s also the most in just over two decades of NOAA records.
Snow cover could grow even more expansive by Tuesday or Wednesday morning depending on how much snow melts and how much new snow falls in the Plains, Midwest and Northeast from the ongoing winter storm.
Maine braces for the first significant snow of the season
Officials in Maine are urging preparedness as an approaching winter storm threatens to bring the season’s first big snow.
“When people wake up Tuesday morning, conditions may appear calm — but by the afternoon and evening, travel is expected to become hazardous,” Vanessa Sperrey, Public Information Officer for the Maine Emergency Management Agency (MEMA).
A winter storm warning is in effect from Tuesday morning into early Wednesday morning that includes Portland and Bangor. A half-foot or more of snow is possible in most areas of eastern Maine. Strong winds could gust up to 35 mph, especially near the coast.
Widespread power outages are not expected, according to Sperrey, but travel conditions could be difficult.
“MEMA is encouraging residents to be prepared: ensure your emergency car kit is stocked and avoid travel when road conditions deteriorate, have weather alerts enabled on smartphones, and pay attention to any instructions from local authorities,” said Sperrey.
Chicago's snow will hit the afternoon commute
This storm won’t be a blockbuster for the Windy City, but it will be ill-timed.
Snow is forecast to reach Chicagoland around 3 to 4 p.m. CT, or right around the start of the afternoon commute. Steady snowfall will then continue well into the evening hours, with a storm total between 2 to 4 inches expected.
Those with travel plans into the evening hours should pencil in some extra time and plan on hazardous conditions, especially on secondary roads.
Snow will end well before the Tuesday morning commute, but untreated surfaces could remain slippery or snow covered.
Heavy snow is falling in St. Louis
Flakes are flying in St. Louis for the second time in three days as the winter storm moves in.
Snow started in the area a little over an hour ago but is starting to pick up steam. Weather observations at St. Louis Lambert International Airport reported a period of heavy snow a few minutes ago.
Up to 3 inches of snow are forecast from the storm. The city recorded 6.4 inches of snow on Saturday.
Where the storm will pile on to record November snow
Chicago, Madison, Wisconsin, and Springfield, Illinois, are set for another burst of snow just two days after all three locations had their record-snowiest November day.
Of those cities, Chicago and Springfield, Illinois, will see the most snow, picking up another 2 to 4 inches in the afternoon and evening hours. More than 8 inches fell in both locations on Saturday.
Madison, Wisconsin, will only get a glancing blow of up to an inch of new snow. That should give shovelers a needed break after a November daily record of 9.3 inches of snow fell on Saturday, pushing its two-day total close to a foot.
Where the storm is now
Now: Wintry weather is underway in the central US. It’s snowing in parts of Iowa, Kansas and Missouri with an icy mix in Arkansas. Some snow is also starting to reach into Illinois. Rain is falling in parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.
This storm will become more organized through the rest of the day and spread snow, rain and an icy mix farther east.
What’s next: Snow will move over the Midwest Monday night and reach the Northeast by early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue in the Northeast for much of the day, mainly west of the region’s major metros. Some icy conditions are possible in parts of the Appalachians Tuesday morning, especially in West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland. Rain will soak much of the Southeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic.
This storm could eventually "bomb out." Here's what that means
The same storm currently taking shape in the center of the country is expected to strengthen significantly once it moves off the East Coast on Tuesday afternoon and become a bomb cyclone not long after.
A bomb cyclone is a rapidly strengthening storm that undergoes a significant drop in pressure – one measure of a storm’s strength – in a short time.
A storm’s pressure must drop at least 24 millibars (a unit of pressure) in 24 hours or less to undergo bombogenesis or “bomb out” and meet the bomb cyclone criteria. Technically, the exact millibar drop needed varies slightly based on the storm’s exact latitude, but 24 millibars in 24 hours is the accepted threshold.
Several weather forecast models are currently projecting the storm’s pressure drop to be between 27 and 29 millibars in 24 hours from Tuesday to Wednesday.
The latest forecast
Now: Wintry weather is underway in the central US. The storm will become more organized through the rest of the day and spread snow, rain and an icy mix farther east.
What’s next: Snow will move over the Midwest Monday night and reach the Northeast by early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue in the Northeast for much of the day, mainly west of the region’s major cities. Some icy conditions are possible in parts of the Appalachians Tuesday morning.
We have high confidence in a widespread stripe of snow and a few areas receiving an icy mix, but exactly where the dividing line between rain and snow sets up is still coming into focus. Therefore, overall confidence with this storm’s forecast is medium.
Here's what to expect in your area
This will be a disruptive winter storm for millions of people in the eastern half of the country. These levels represent what to expect in your area.
Snow will be the most widespread impact and could make for tricky travel, especially since this will be the first storm of the year. Some travelers may not be acclimated to winter weather driving challenges yet.
If any ice is possible in your area, travel with extreme caution.
