Hurricane Lane has been a tough storm to predict. There has never really been a hurricane in this region moving in this direction — so there are no previous storms for forecasters to point to.
Why forecasters are watching the winds: As of Friday morning, Hurricane Lane was getting battered by “wind shear,” which is upper level winds blowing in different directions. That disrupts the hurricane’s ability to sustain itself and results in the storm weakening. Part of that wind shear comes from the “trade winds” — the almost constant winds that blow from east to west through Hawaii.
But Lane could be entering an area west of the Big Island where the island itself blocks those trade winds and — could allow Lane to maintain its intensity longer than it otherwise would, which isn’t good.
And then there’s the matter of the big turn. The hurricane is due to turn left eventually, but the timing is dependent upon those trade winds pushing the storm to the west.
Since we haven’t seen a storm like this in this region, just how the storm will react is all theory. But one scientist simulated this exact scenario years ago — and his results paint a potentially scary scene.
Christopher Chambers, a research scientist at Hokkaido University in Japan, has spent 10 years analyzing the effect the Big Island imparts on hurricanes around Hawaii. In his computer simulations, he took Hurricane Iniki from 1992, which struck the island of Kauai head on, and moved the storm a couple hundred miles further east so that it headed up into Oahu (pretty much the same track that Lane has taken so far).
Chambers calls this “the nightmare scenario.”
What he found was that the Big Island and its mountains blocked the trade winds and turned the storm towards the right (into Oahu and Maui).
So what happens now? Hurricane Lane is just now entering this downwind region of the Big Island, so that is why the next 12 to 18 hours will mean everything for what will happen to the storm — and consequently what the impacts will be on the populated islands of Maui and Oahu.
For Chambers, he is getting to watch his theorized scenario play out in real time.