When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign, he did it in the most complicated way.
Kennedy will take himself off the ballot in certain key states, but says he is encouraging supporters to vote for him in safe red and blue states so that he can feature in a “contingent election” if former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tie. In the battleground states, Kennedy said he’s supporting Trump.
Here’s what you should know:
What’s a contingent election? If there’s a 269-269 tie in the contest for 538 Electoral College votes, or if a third-party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and keeps both candidates from reaching an Electoral College majority of 270, the next step is called a “contingent election.”
According to the 12th Amendment, the new House of Representatives, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
Could Kennedy actually feature in such an election? Short answer: No. He could not take part unless he won electoral votes, something that does not seem to be mathematically possible. Perhaps he’s envisioning an elector going rogue and supporting him in defiance of voters, but Kennedy did not share details of his thinking.
Could a tie actually happen this year? Yes. While a tie is not a likely outcome, it is something to be ready for.
Here is one plausible scenario for the 2024 election: If Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there’s a tie, 269-269.
The website 270 to Win also has more tied-election scenarios.
How would the process work? The nation would clearly be divided. Lawmakers could be torn between supporting their preferred candidate and the one their state’s voters preferred.
House members can only choose from among the top three finishers in the Electoral College for president, and senators can choose from among the top two finishers for vice president. Kennedy would presumably need to win electoral votes — either a state, or a congressional district in Nebraska or Maine — in order to be an option in a contingent election. There’s no chance of that happening at the moment.
Read more about a contingent election here.