January 19 - 2024 campaign updates

A new poll of three potential presidential matchups in New Hampshire suggests that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is currently running near-even against President Joe Biden among voters in the state, while former president Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis each lag behind the Democratic president.

A new Marist College poll of New Hampshire finds Biden leading Trump among the state’s registered voters in a hypothetical November matchup, 52% to 45%, with 3% undecided.

Biden also leads against DeSantis, 51% to 42%, according to the survey, with 7% undecided. The poll finds no clear leader in a hypothetical contest between Biden and Haley, with Haley taking 47% and Biden 44%, and another 9% undecided.

Republican and Republican-leaning independents in the state are more likely to say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the GOP nominee than they are to express similar sentiments about his rivals for the nomination. More than three-quarters (77%) say they’d be satisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee, compared with 60% who say they’d be satisfied with DeSantis leading the ticket, and 55% who’d be satisfied with Haley.

The Marist Poll was conducted January 15-17, and surveyed 1,157 registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. For the subgroup of 486 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the margin of sampling error is +/- 5.8 percentage points.

Former President Donald Trump’s inner circle had originally hoped that South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott would endorse before the South Carolina primary, sources familiar with the internal discussion told CNN. The timeline was accelerated, however, as former Gov. Nikki Haley saw a spike in the polls in New Hampshire. 

Part of the goal of the timing ahead of the New Hampshire primary is for Trump’s team to be able to paint Haley as disliked by the people who would theoretically know her best in her home state. 

South Carolina congressmen Russell Fry and William Timmons are also expected to campaign with Trump in New Hampshire this weekend, Fry told CNN, as Trump’s team launches a full-court press against the former South Carolina governor. 

While Trump’s team has projected confidence that they believe Trump will win the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, his advisers have admitted that they believe the margins are closer in New Hampshire than any other early-voting state.

Former President Donald Trump speaks to guests during a rally in Clinton, Iowa, on January 6.

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is running a new radio ad attacking GOP presidential rival Nikki Haley over her proposal to raise the retirement age for Americans currently in their 20s. 

“Year after year you paid into Social Security, now Nikki Haley wants to keep you from collecting what’s yours,” the narrator in the ad says. 

The ad plays twice a clip of Haley saying, “We say the rules have changed, 65 is way too low and we need to increase that.”

“Remember that on Election Day,” the narrator says. 

Haley has called for changing the retirement age for Americans currently in their 20s, arguing the retirement age should match life expectancy. Haley also wants to limit Social Security and Medicare benefits for wealthier Americans, as she argues for these programs are headed for bankruptcy. But Haley has said older Americans should not see any cuts to their benefits.

Sen. Tim Scott speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on January 11.

South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott is expected to endorse Donald Trump tonight in New Hampshire, a source familiar tells CNN. 

The two have been in talks since Scott dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, multiple sources told CNN. 

CNN’s Manu Raju previously reported behind the scenes that Trump has been in talks with Scott about winning his endorsement, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the talks. One GOP source told CNN that Scott was leaning toward endorsing Trump before next month’s South Carolina primary. Republicans are set to hold the primary in the state on February 24.

Scott’s expected endorsement is a blow of sorts to his fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley, who appointed him to his Senate seat in 2012, and another sign of Trump’s commanding presence on top of the party.

“Interesting that Trump’s lining up with all the Washington insiders when he claimed he wanted to drain the swamp. But the fellas are gonna do what the fellas are gonna do,” Haley said in a statement on Friday reacting to the reports of Scott’s endorsement.

The New York Times was first to report the expected Scott endorsement.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood and Ebony Davis contributed reporting to this post.

President Joe Biden speaks to the press after ordering food at a Cook Out in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Thursday.

A black and white milkshake in Raleigh. A mango smoothie outside Allentown. Soul food in Charleston.

Back on the campaign trail, President Joe Biden is sidling up to take-out counters, introducing himself to restaurant workers and slipping into booths as he searches for votes, a return to retail politics his aides hope can help break through stubborn disapproval figures, questions about his record and persistent concerns about his age.

The theory: The more people who see and connect with Biden up close and in person, the more who will be convinced he deserves another four years in office.

It’s not exactly a revolutionary tactic – politicians have been “dropping in” to diners, pizzerias and all manner of local eateries for decades (the “drop-ins” are almost always carefully planned, even for candidates who aren’t sitting presidents).

Still, some Biden allies say they have been pushing for the president to make a quick return to retail politics, believing pressing-the-flesh is where he can demonstrate some of his best attributes — like finding connections and understanding people’s problems — while diminishing some of his worst, like a propensity for long-windedness.

As the new year begins, the shift in style has been apparent as Biden’s team explores new ways of putting the president among people. Until Friday, the president had yet to hold a single public event at the White House in 2024, choosing to spend less time in the East Room speaking from behind a podium and more time in battleground states ordering milkshakes.

Read more on Biden’s return to retail politics.

Winning individual primaries and caucuses is just one step in the long path to winning a party’s presidential nomination.

How does the Republican Party pick a presidential candidate, in a nutshell? Both parties hold conventions in the summer where delegates technically select the nominee. The process and rules are different for each party, but the primaries are about winning enough delegates to secure the nomination. There are different kinds of nominating contests and different kinds of delegates in a calendar that stretches from January to June, so keeping track of the delegate math can get complicated.

What is a delegate? Performing well in primaries and caucuses equals delegates, and the larger goal is amassing the magic number of delegates to secure a nomination before delegate voting at the party convention.

How many delegates are there? Whoever wins the GOP nomination needs to win at least 1,215 out of 2,429 delegates awarded as part of the primary process. In years without an incumbent, like Republicans are experiencing in 2024, the winner frequently does not hit the magic number until May or even June. In 2016, in his first of three White House runs, Donald Trump hit the magic number on May 26.

But if Trump’s lead in polls holds up during early primaries, he could wrap things up much earlier.

How does a candidate win delegates? During most of the early primaries and caucuses, states award delegates proportionally. That means that each candidate gets a number of delegates roughly equivalent to the percentage of the vote he or she has won. Delegates can be awarded based on results either statewide or in individual congressional districts.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows attends an event in Augusta, Maine, on January 4.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on Friday asked the state’s highest court to weigh in on whether former President Donald Trump is disqualified from office because of the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban.” 

Bellows filed the appeal to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court two days after a lower-court judge paused the proceedings and said the case should stay frozen until the US Supreme Court decides a similar anti-Trump candidacy challenge that originated in Colorado. 

Instead of waiting, Bellows wants Maine’s top court to decide the matter now, before the US Supreme Court rules on the Colorado case. The Maine justices are required by law to rule on Bellows’ appeal by January 31. The US Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments in the Colorado case for February 8.

She continued: “This appeal ensures that Maine’s highest court has the opportunity to weigh in now, before ballots are counted, promoting trust in our free, safe and secure elections.”

For now, because of the pause, Trump’s name is on the ballot for the Maine GOP primary on March 5, which is Super Tuesday.

Nikki Haley visits Newfields Country Store with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, left, in Newfields, New Hampshire, on Friday.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley on Friday spent her morning campaigning with Gov. Chris Sununu, making retail stops in the Granite State.

Haley emphasized that small businesses are the “heartbeat” of the economy as she visited the Newfields Country Store. She was greeted by customers who sang Happy Birthday to her on her way in ahead of her birthday on Saturday.

Haley then headed to Kay’s Cafe + Bakery in Hampton. She walked around and spoke with customers, some who asked her to take selfies.

She also participated in a brief roundtable at the Polaris Charter School, speaking to students, parents and teachers about transparency in the classroom.

“The second we start giving students power, that we start giving parents power, we start giving teachers power, and we put transparency back in the classroom and the ability for parents to say ‘this is what I want for my child’ – that’s when America will thrive like never before,” the former South Carolina governor said. 

While the primary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire can be critical for giving candidates early momentum — those two states represent a small number of delegates.

It’s not until Super Tuesday on March 5, seven weeks after the first Americans pick a candidate in Iowa, that a consequentially large number of Republican delegates is at stake.

In 13 primaries and three caucuses, 874 delegates, 36% of the Republican total, will be up for grabs, including in California, the state with the most Republican delegates. But we still aren’t even halfway through the primaries.

Below, explore how many delegates are at stake in every contest.

Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Hollis, New Hampshire on Thursday.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley hit back on Donald Trump’s escalating attacks on her, while continually linking her criticism to the news media and President Joe Biden during a Fox News interview.

After being played a clip on Fox of Trump falsely saying Democrats could vote in New Hampshire’s Republican primary for Haley, she responded, “it’s irresponsible for the press to say this because Democrats can’t vote in this primary.” 

“Just because the media says it, because Donald Trump says it, it’s wrong. We’ve got to start telling the truth. And the problem with Donald Trump and Joe Biden is they think if they tell Americans something, that it’s the truth,” she said, accusing the front-runners in both parties of “lying” to the American people.

She said Trump’s “lying” is “another reason why he won’t debate me because he knows I’ll call him out on it.”

Asked if Haley’s comment that she would pardon Trump if he was convicted is a sign she still supports him, she answered, “it’s not personal,” before again linking the former president to his successor, saying, “the problem with Joe Biden and Donald Trump as we’ve seen, they take all politics personal.”