January 12 - 2024 campaign updates

The first test of the 2024 presidential election hits January 15, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.

The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.

Weather is expected to be a factor in Monday’s contest. Iowa will have their coldest caucuses ever this year.

Here’s what you need to know about the Iowa caucuses:

What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, held throughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.

Caucuses are something else. They are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.

How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.

Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans.

Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of “uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.

Some notable losses include when the Republican Ronald Reagan placed second in 1980 to George H.W. Bush, who ultimately became his running mate. Reagan, interestingly, had won the Iowa caucuses in 1976, although then-President Gerald Ford won the GOP nomination and subsequently lost the White House.

The elder Bush, despite winning the caucuses in 1980, lost them in 1988 to then-Sen. Bob Dole even though Bush was running as the sitting vice president. Bush went on to secure the GOP nomination.

And Trump, although he’s the favorite in pre-caucus polling this year, lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Cruz.

Read more about the Iowa caucuses here.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a campaign event at Jethro's BBQ on January 11, in Ames, Iowa.

As blizzard warnings are issued in Iowa, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held a campaign event in Ankeny on Friday, where about 50 people, Gov. Kim Reynolds, and several reporters attended. 

DeSantis acknowledged the dangerous conditions, in front of a banner reading, “No excuses. Just results.”

“I’m going full speed ahead with whatever we have, but we want people to be safe,” he said.

Never Back Down, the super PAC backing DeSantis, postponed events today in Clear Lake and Marshalltown, Iowa due to unsafe weather conditions in the area. It’s unclear if the two remaining events in Pella and Coralville will go on as scheduled. 

“Our five-year-old son is with us. A month ago, he had never even seen snow,” DeSantis said, telling the crowd that he promised him a snowball fight later.

As snow flurried outside, DeSantis said he was “impressed” that people showed up to his Friday morning event. 

Taking questions, DeSantis was asked by a younger person how he’d approach LGBTQ issues and how it differs from other candidates.

“The approach I take is simple, you know. I treat people as individuals not as members of groups. I think we need to get away from this idea of trying to put people in different groups. I don’t think it’s healthy for society,” DeSantis said.

Without addressing LGBTQ issues, DeSantis went on to rail against Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) at universities, which he likened to “ideology that’s trying to aggressively divvy people up in different categories in different groups.”

“We will end the DEI cartel,” DeSantis said. 

When President Joe Biden visits Pennsylvania on Friday — his first official event of the year, and the 33rd time he’s been to the commonwealth since taking office — the topic will be a familiar one: Bidenomics.

His use of the phrase has been a source of contention among some Democrats since last summer, when the president and his aides devised a strategy of taking more credit for economic gains made under his watch.

But as the economy continues to show signs of improvement – and his most likely Republican rival inches closer to the nomination — there are few signs Biden is retiring the label, even if others in his party avoid it.

On Friday, Biden will fly the Bidenomics banner in Allentown, Pennsylvania, the onetime steel and manufacturing hub that suffered the fallout of deindustrialization, but has seen a revival in recent years, with an unemployment rate the White House says is now at a 30-year low.

Not a popular slogan: Among some of Biden’s fellow Democrats, there have been longstanding concerns about the Bidenomics approach. Despite widespread praise for Biden’s accomplishments, some say Biden’s focus is better spent laying out the threats posed by a potential second Trump presidency — stakes the president has now begun dramatically laying out in political speeches, including two over the past week.

Other Democratic allies say Biden is better off tailoring his message more narrowly around prices, which White House aides acknowledge is a top issue for Americans.

Blueprint, a public research firm that tests which policies and messages are breaking through in the hopes of helping Democrats get elected, recently published data encouraging Biden to adopt a tighter message on inflation and lowering prices, saying those are areas most important for voters.

Read more about the Biden campaign’s fight to change the economic narrative.

Sen. Rand Paul boards an elevator following a Senate Republican caucus meeting at the US Capitol in June 2023 in Washington, DC.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul said he doesn’t have a first choice in the GOP primary but is firmly against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. 

Paul on X said he liked Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy — and even shared some nice words about Robert F Kennedy Jr., but he wrote that after reviewing Haley’s record, “I don’t see how any thoughtful or informed libertarian or conservative should vote for @NikkiHaley.”

Paul also shared a link to a website, nevernikki.net, which it appears he launched to promote his objections to her.  

Paul ran for president in 2016 and finished sixth in the Iowa caucuses, pulling in significantly less support than his father Ron Paul garnered in 2012. 

Paul teased an announcement on Thursday that led some to believe — particularly DeSantis’ online supporters — that he would endorse a candidate Friday. In that post, Paul said, “I’ve stayed out of the Republican Presidential Primary so far - but I’ve seen enough. That’s why tomorrow morning I will have something important to say.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley participate in a CNN Republican Presidential Debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 10.

For five months, Betsy Sarcone has been adamant: Iowa Republicans who don’t want Donald Trump as the GOP nominee better be willing to compromise and consolidate around one alternative candidate. She came to the CNN debate Wednesday night pushing Nikki Haley as the best option, but she left not so sure.

“Before, I said I’d for sure go Haley,” the suburban Des Moines real estate agent said Thursday of the former South Carolina governor. “Maybe I am back on the fence. It honestly might be a game-time decision for me.”

What changed?

“They are pretty even to me,” Sarcone said of Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. “I think DeSantis has softened his language around some things, including abortion, to be more compassionate and I appreciated that. The border, which is such a massive trickle-down issue, I walked away feeling more confidence DeSantis would fix that and fix it fast.”

Sarcone is among a group of Iowa Republicans CNN has tracked since August to follow the campaign through the eyes and experiences of voters. She was leaning toward DeSantis at the beginning, then warmed to Haley. All along, she has said she hoped to persuade friends and family to consolidate around one strong Trump challenger. But her own back-and-forth is evidence of a divide that Sarcone concedes in the end likely benefits the former president.

“For the first time, I thought Haley came off not as well as she could have,” Sarcone said.

Other members of the group we’ve been following who attended the debate stayed firm in their choices.

Read more about what voters are saying about the debate.

A pedestrian navigates a snow-covered street on January 9, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa.

The 2024 Republican presidential contenders are growing increasingly concerned about the dangerously frigid weather that Iowans will be confronted with when they head to the polls on caucus day, acknowledging that temperatures could negatively impact anticipated turnout.

Iowa will have their coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

The GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy, and the expectations for what success will look like in Iowa, can withstand the bitter weather, according to a series of conversations with the candidates and their top advisers.

Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February of 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.

Add winds to this bitter cold and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.

These extreme conditions could be dangerous for Iowans waiting to caucus and could also present accessibility issues — with some campaigns fearing caucusgoers’ cars will fail to start or break down on their way to their locations.

Read more about what the campaigns are saying about Monday.

SFA Fund, the pro Nikki Haley Super PAC, is out with a new ad in Iowa hitting Ron DeSantis for idolizing former President Donald Trump like a father figure. 

The ad comes just three days before the Iowa caucuses. 

SFA Fund has spent more money advertising in Iowa during this Republican primary than any other group.

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde addresses a press conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on December 14, 2023.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the possible reelection of Donald Trump as a US president poses “a clear threat” to Europe.

“If we are to draw lessons from history, as in the way he managed the four years of his mandate, it is clearly a threat,” she said in an interview on French TV channel France 2 on Thursday.  

However, Lagarde said she believed Europe would not be abandoned by the US in their support of Ukraine if Trump returns to the White House as “there are a number of American Congress members who are deeply hostile to the atrocious war that Russia has waged against Ukraine and who will continue to finance and support Ukraine.” 

On inflation, Lagarde, who was former French economy minister and then head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before heading the ECB, mentioned that “the worst was behind,” unless the world “is confronted to an additional major shock.”

“The ECB is on its way to winning the battle against inflation,” she added. 

An employee of the Horizon Family Restaurant works to clear snow outside the venue where Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley was scheduled to hold a campaign event on January 8, in Sioux City, Iowa. 

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has canceled all in-person campaign events scheduled for Friday in Iowa due to a blizzard warning in the region.

Haley had three campaign events scheduled in Fort Dodge, Le Mars, and Council Bluffs, as she tries to sell her final pitch to voters ahead of the caucuses on January 15. The events will now be telephone town halls, according to a campaign media advisory. More details on the tele-town halls will be provided by the campaign.

“Stormy weather won’t stop us from ensuring Iowans hear Nikki’s vision for a strong and proud America. With only three days until the caucuses, we’re going to keep telling voters why they should Pick Nikki,” Team Haley Iowa spokesperson Pat Garrett said in a statement.

Inclement weather is expected in the Hawkeye State through the caucus. During her campaign stops on Thursday, Haley encouraged voters to not let freezing temperatures deter them from caucusing.

“I know it’s going to be -15 [degrees] on Monday. I don’t even know what that is. I literally can’t comprehend it. It’s going to be -15, but I’m going to be out there, and I want you to go out there,” Haley said to a crowd in Cedar Rapids.

As former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley earns praise from some corners of the GOP for her willingness to tackle the financial health of Social Security, former President Donald Trump is trying to punish her for it.

It’s the latest example of how the GOP’s seesawing approach to the program’s looming solvency crisis is surfacing in this primary – with the former president, who previously used the issue to attack Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, now trying to blunt Haley’s momentum in the final days before voting begins.

Trump’s campaign released a new ad on Thursday targeting his rival Republican over her plans to reform government retirement benefits. Haley’s team shot back that the former president’s record undermines his claims that he is a champion of the popular entitlement program.

And the back-and-forth over Social Security isn’t reserved to the two leading candidates in New Hampshire. One of the most heated exchanges of Wednesday night’s CNN debate between DeSantis and Haley in Iowa, where Trump has dominated polling, occurred when the discussion veered to Social Security.

Social Security has long been a thorny issue for presidential candidates, especially in general elections, when the two nominees are in a heated race to win over reliable senior voters. But for Republicans, Trump’s arrival altered the dynamics of how the GOP talks about the program.

For decades, conservative budget hawks have attempted to tinker with it to keep it solvent. That changed in 2016, when Trump vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare, forcing Republicans to retreat from a bedrock position.

Conservatives have often expressed wariness of the program since it began in the 1930s. But as Americans have embraced Social Security – 79% opposed reducing the size of benefits in an AP-NORC poll conducted in March – opponents have changed tactics from trying to eliminate the benefit to cutting it or making drastic changes. An effort by then-President George W. Bush to privatize the program during his second term was met with strong resistance and ultimately failed.

Today more than 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, many of whom depend on it for basic living costs. In October, the Social Security Administration announced that recipients would receive an annual cost-of-living adjustment of 3.2% in the next year – smaller than recent adjustments.

As of now, the main fund for Social Security is projected to be depleted by 2033, according to a Social Security Administration report. Once that happens, the fund’s reserves will only be able to cover about 75% of the “scheduled benefits,” the report warned.