Our new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers shows that Buttigieg has climbed to 25%. He was at 9% in September.
Buttigieg is 9 points ahead of Warren. She’s at 16%, down from 22% in September. Biden’s at 15%, down from 20% in September. Sanders is also at 15%, up from 11% in September.
Klobuchar rounds out the top 5 at 6%, her highest level of support in any of CNN’s Iowa polls.
Everyone else is below 5%.
Here are a few other takeaways from the poll:
If there is one lesson you should take from the dramatic shifts in our Iowa polls over the last two months, it’s that things are volatile.
Although a higher percentage of caucusgoers say their mind is made up (30%) now than in September (20%), 69% say they either don’t have a first choice or could be persuaded to vote a different way.
There are seven candidates with favorable ratings over 50%.
When you look to history, leaders in Buttigieg’s position have lost many times. In caucuses without an incumbent running, the leader in the Iowa polls at this point have only gone on to win the caucuses three of the last nine times since 2000. That means they have lost more often than they have won.
This is especially the case when the leader was polling below 49% like Buttigieg is currently. In each of these six cases, the Iowa polling leader at this point since 2000 went on to lose the caucuses – and they went on to lose the nomination as well.
Now, that doesn’t mean Buttigieg is destined to lose or anything like that. Rather, it’s an indication that a lead at this point doesn’t necessarily mean a whole lot when there are a slew of well-liked candidates not too far behind.
Klobuchar was one of the candidates that analysts such as myself thought might catch fire with the Iowa electorate. She’s from next door Minnesota, is a woman (a cycle after Democrats nominated them in record numbers) and has electability bonafides that no other Democrat in the race has.
In this poll, her horserace standing (6%) is her best in any Iowa poll done by us this cycle. Her very favorable rating of 20% is also her highest to date.
The continuing decline for Biden and rise of Buttigieg does seem indicate that there is a lane for a more moderate alternative. With Buttigieg sure to be attacked over the months to come, Klobuchar might just be able to squeeze in there as that candidate.
Yet Klobuchar’s path is much more complex than Buttigieg’s was in September when he was at 9%. Buttigieg’s very favorable rating was 33% in September compared to Klobuchar’s 20% now. A majority (55%) said they were at least actively considering caucusing for Buttigieg in September. Only 39% say the same of Klobuchar now.
But those numbers are at least malleable. Buttigieg’s very favorable ratings rose by nine points over the last two months, for example.
Klobuchar can now say she is a top five candidate in Iowa (though she still falls 9% below the two candidates above her, Biden and Sanders). With over two months to go, there are a number of historical examples of candidates gaining the ground Klobuchar needs in order to become a top tier candidate.
