Israeli election exit polls project Netanyahu in lead

With less than an hour to go until polls close, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has kicked off a “Gewald” [a desperate cry for help, in Yiddish] campaign, claiming voter turnout is low in Likud strongholds.

Netanyahu ran the same campaign during the last two elections.

The difference this time is that he only employed it at the end of voting, claiming all day that he was only one seat away from victory.

Sixteen of Israel’s 10,840 polling stations were designated specifically for voters under self-quarantine, due to potential exposure to coronavirus.

There are a total of 5,630 people under self-quarantine across the country, the Health Ministry said in a statement Sunday, and seven confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in total.

The polling stations are manned by workers from Magen David Adom, Israel’s emergency response service.

Turnout in Israel’s general election stood at 56.3% at 6 p.m. local time (11 a.m. ET) on Monday, after 11 hours of voting, according to Israel’s Central Elections Commission. That compares with a figure at the same point in the September 2019 election of 53.5%.

It’s the highest figure after 11 hours of voting for any general election in Israel since 1999.

Ultra-orthodox Jews peek from a window as their rabbi votes during elections at a polling station in Bnei Brak, Israel.

By law, the first exit polls released on election day come out at 10 p.m. local time. This will give us the first indication of where the parties stand. But these exit polls come with a disclaimer: sometimes, they are remarkably prescient; other times, they are woefully wide of the mark.

Final results can take a few days, as ballot boxes are checked, and votes come in from Israelis overseas.

But the results should be obvious long before that, and it is usually fairly clear by sunrise the following day what shape possible coalition negotiations could take.

Officially, it’s up to Israel’s president to decide who is tasked with forming the next government. He announces his decision after consulting with the heads of the political parties that have secured enough votes to enter the Knesset. These consultations take a few days, and the President is likely to announce his decision about a week after the elections. 

From that point, the party leader appointed to the task has six weeks to form a government.

For much of the three-month campaign, opinion polls showed Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party with a slight lead – two or three seats – over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. But even in the clearest of polls, Gantz was never predicted to have a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a government. By the final week of campaigning, the three major election polls showed Likud narrowly in front, with a one-seat lead. But the bigger picture was unchanged. Like Gantz, Netanyahu did not appear on track to have the necessary seats to form a government.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal trial is set to begin March 17, just two weeks after Israel’s elections.

The trial will begin one day after the country’s newly elected parliament is sworn in and in the middle of coalition negotiations, as Israel tries to break a year-long political deadlock.

Netanyahu faces one charge of bribery and three charges of fraud and breach of trust in three separate corruption investigations. The Prime Minister is required to be present at Jerusalem District Court on the first day of trial, which will be presided over by three judges.

The 70-year-old Israeli leader has denied wrongdoing, calling the cases an “attempted coup” and a media-fueled witch hunt. Under Israeli law, Netanyahu is not required to step down unless he is convicted and that conviction is upheld throughout the appeals process.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to cast his ballot during the Israeli legislative elections at a polling station in Jerusalem.

In this election, 29 political parties are vying for a spot in the Knesset. Two parties are certain to finish comfortably ahead of the rest: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White.

Likud is on the right of Israeli politics, while Blue and White has positioned itself as centrist.

Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz and his wife Revital vote in Rosh Haayin, Israel.

Both leaders know they will need to rely on the support of smaller parties to form a coalition – and about six (possibly seven) other parties are expected to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold necessary to secure representation in parliament. Two parties representing the ultra-Orthodox communities can expect to win seats.

There is also a party that positions itself to the right of Likud, called Yamina, and another to the left of Blue and White, known as Labor-Gesher-Meretz, that can both expect to secure representation. There is also an alliance of parties representing Israel’s Arab communities, the Joint List, which is confident it will finish third. Lastly, there is Yisrael Beiteinu, the party led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman. He could be a kingmaker if the result is as close as polls predict.

An ultra-orthodox man votes during elections in Bnei Brak, Israel.

7 a.m. local (12 a.m. ET): Polls open.

10 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET):  Polls close. 

10 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET):  Exit polls expected (though these are bound to shift) 

Overnight: Final results come in, exit poll projections are continuously refined and improved. 

March 3: Election results announced. Political parties begin consultations with President and recommend a leader to form a coalitiongovernment.

March 30 – April 13: Government won’t be announced until up to 6 weeks after vote. The candidate has 28 days to put together acoalition of at least 61 members of Knesset, but the President can grant a 14-day extension.

After April 13: If the leader is unable to put together a coalition majority after the extension period, the President could task someone else.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews vote in the Tel Aviv suburb of Bnei Brak.

Israelis are heading back to the polls for the third time in a year, in an unprecedented attempt to break the country’s political deadlock. The country’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, twice failed to form a government in 2019. His main challenger, retired army chief Benny Gantz, was also given one attempt; he failed, as well.

Netanyahu has been formally indicted on corruption charges since the last vote in September – accusations he denies. But it does not seem to have had much effect on the polls. Another issue that seems to have underperformed electorally is the Trump peace plan. With the promise of a US greenlight for annexation of large chunks of the West Bank, Netanyahu might have hoped it would lift his vote. But, per the preliminary polling, it does not seem to have had much of an impact. Neither Gantz nor Netanyahu are predicted to have a clear path after the election to building a 61-seat coalition.