The latest on the Ukraine-Russia border crisis

Satellite images show a new helicopter unit and battle group has been deployed to Millerovo Airfield in Russia, some 16 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border.

New satellite imagery from Maxar shows a substantial increase in the deployment of Russian helicopter forces close to the Ukrainian border.

Maxar assessed that a new helicopter unit and battle group deployment consisting of tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment have deployed to Millerovo airfield, situated 16 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. 

Millerovo is close to the part of Ukraine’s border that is controlled by pro-Russian separatists of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic.

Slightly further north, Maxar said that a new helicopter unit (more than 20 helicopters) has deployed near Valuyki, approximately 27 kilometers east of the border with Ukraine.

As seen in a previous imagery package, nearly 20 helicopters remain deployed near Belgorod, approximately 35 kilometers east of the border with Ukraine.

Videos uploaded to social media, and vetted by CNN, show that attack helicopters are present at both airfields near Valuyski and Belgorod, Russia.

In Crimea, there are now 70 helicopters, more than 60 were first observed earlier this week, at a disused airbase at Lake Donuzlav on the Black Sea coast remain in place.

The increase comes despite a statement earlier this week from the Russian Ministry of Defense saying that some military units would be moved away from Ukraine and return to their home bases. Russia even published videos of trains moving a number of tanks as evidence that it was following through on its statement.

In the past week a combination of satellite imagery and social media videos have shown advanced Russian tanks, howitzers and ballistic missiles moving towards the Ukrainian border, especially to the north and north-east.

And satellite imagery earlier this week showed troops, military vehicles and helicopters at the Zyabrovka airfield near the city of Gomel in Belarus, around 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podoliak has told CNN “it is impossible to say with certainty what exactly is going on in the thoughts of the Russian leader.”

Podoliak’s comments come on the heels of President Biden saying he’s convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine.

Podoliak went on to note that Biden’s stance is undoubtedly based on information from the intelligence community, saying that it’s “not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing with the statements.”

However, said Podoliak, “one should pay attention to the more important meaning in the words of President Biden: he confirmed that there is still a chance for diplomacy. And we will use this chance.”

Another senior Ukrainian official told CNN that Ukrainian President Zelensky is still planning to travel to Munich and return on the same day. But he did note that the “security situation will be reassessed in morning.”

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, attends the 58th Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, Friday, February 18.

While at the Munich Security Conference, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she met with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, who “conveyed the urgent concerns of the innocent people of Kyiv under threat of a Russian invasion.”

The House Speaker said her Congressional delegation “reiterated America’s support for the people of Ukraine and opposition to Putin’s aggression.”

Pelosi said in a statement that the delegation, “has made and will continue to make clear: America remains unwavering in our commitment to swift, severe consequences if Russia chooses to invade Ukraine.”

“Under President Biden, the transatlantic alliance is stronger and more united — and we will continue to be together in our response,” the statement said.

You can read the House Speaker’s statement in its entirety here.

Nearly half of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine are in attack position, according to a US defense official familiar with the latest assessment. 

The number of battalion tactical groups has swelled to approximately 120-125. A battalion tactical group usually comprises 1,000 troops.

The official said the Russian military has continued to move forces toward the border, and within the last 48 hours, the number of forces in attack position has reached 40-50%.

At the same time, the Russian destabilization campaign has begun, the official said, with Russia accusing Ukraine of genocide in Donbas, conducting false flag operations, and more.

On Friday, a military vehicle exploded in the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine near the Government House building, the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic. 

An advisor to Ukraine’s Interior Minister, Anton Gerashchenko, called it a “staging and a provocation.”

Earlier Friday: The Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, two self-governed regions in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists, organized the evacuation of civilians to Russia. 

Russia promised each refugee would receive 10,000 rubles (around $130) upon arrival in the Rostov region of the country.

US President Joe Biden on Friday said it is up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky whether he will attend this weekend’s security conference in Germany.

“That’s a judgment for him to make,” Biden said when asked by reporters following remarks he gave on the current state of tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Biden added, “I’ve spoken with Zelensky a dozen times, maybe more, I don’t know. In the pursuit of a diplomatic solution it may — maybe be the wise choice. But it’s his decision.”

CNN has previously reported that Biden administration officials have privately urged Zelensky that they do not believe it is a good idea for him to leave Ukraine and visit Munich on Saturday.

US President Joe Biden said there has been an uptick in Russian disinformation that could be used as a pretext for an invasion into Ukraine.

Speaking at the White House, Biden said reports pushed to the Russian public that Ukraine is planning to launch an attack in separatist-controlled Donbas lacked evidence. He said those claims defied logic.

“This is also in line with the pretext scenario that the United States and our allies and partners have been warning about for weeks,” Biden went on.

He said the US had seen an uptick in violations of the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine. 

Biden previously stated he did not believe the Russian leader had made up his mind, but acknowledged his insights into Putin’s thinking were limited.

In previous appearances over the past month, Biden has suggested that Putin’s thinking was a mystery to almost everyone, indicating even top Russian advisers were in the dark as to his intentions.

Friday’s comments marked a significant shift in the President’s view, and a far more definitive stance on his counterpart’s plans.

After his initial answer, Biden was pressed again whether he was convinced Putin had determined to go ahead with an invasion. 

“Yes,” Biden said.

Asked if that precluded diplomacy to defuse the crisis, Biden said it did not.

“Diplomacy is always a possibility,” he said. 

And questioned as he was preparing to depart the Roosevelt Room why he believed “he is considering that option at all,” Biden said only, “We have a significant intelligence capability.”

US President Joe Biden once again warned Russia of possible consequences if an invasion of Ukraine occurred, but said “it is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table.”

“Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” Biden said.

Biden noted that Russia agreed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov should meet on February 24 in Europe.

“But if Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy,” Biden warned.

“They will have chosen war and they will pay a steep price for doing so. Not only from the sanctions that we and our allies will impose on Russia, but the more outrage the rest of the world will visit upon them,” he continued.

President Biden said the US believes that Russian troops intend to attack Ukraine “in the coming week, the coming days.”

Biden went on to condemn such an attack, in the process pledging to continue supporting Ukraine.

“We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly … we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving. Make no mistake: if Russia pursues its plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice,” Biden said.

“The United States and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security as well. We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people,” the President added.

US President Joe Biden addressed the flurry of misinformation Russia has been releasing as the threat of invasion hangs over Ukraine.

In remarks from the White House Friday afternoon, Biden said he’s “seen reports of a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine in the Donbas.”

Biden’s remarks follow reports from Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine of shelling in the Donbas region on Thursday.

Video and images confirmed by CNN show that a kindergarten was hit by a shell.

President Joe Biden speaks about Ukraine in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, on Friday, Feb. 18, in Washington.

US President Joe Biden is speaking now from the White House on the latest developments in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, as his White House is now blaming Russian intelligence for a massive cyberattack on Ukraine.

The President last spoke about the crisis on Thursday as he departed the White House for a trip to Ohio, when he said there is “every indication” a Russian invasion of Ukraine “will happen in the next several days,” and the threat of an attack is “very high.”

Biden’s remarks come amid escalating tensions as US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Michael Carpenter warned earlier Friday that the US has assessed a significant Russian military buildup near Ukraine just in the last two weeks.

Before his remarks, Biden spoke with allies in North America and Europe. He will hold a phone call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO to discuss the ongoing crisis.

Multiple US and western government officials tell CNN that the US has intelligence that Russia has drawn up lists of current political figures that it would target for removal in the event it invades Ukraine and topples the current government in Kyiv.

Sources familiar with the intelligence say the target lists are part of Russian planning to replace the current administration in Kyiv with a more Russia-friendly government, bolstering a previous disclosure by the British government identifying pro-Moscow figures it said Russia planned to install. 

The most likely outcome for those politicians and public figures whom Moscow has targeted to be ousted in the event Kyiv falls, these sources say, is jail or assassination. 

“If it’s in public” — in front of cameras — “that’ll be different very different from somebody who they corner in the middle of nowhere,” this person added. 

CNN has not seen the underlying intelligence intercepts or the documents that name the targets or the purported collaborators and their supposed positions in a pro-Russia administration.

And for now, the threat remains contingent on invasion, even as Russia has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and around Ukraine, including Russian-led forces in breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. 

American officials have continued to escalate warnings that Russia is prepared to launch an invasion in Ukraine in the coming days — including a full-scale march on Kyiv — but they caution that they don’t believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued the order yet. Putin’s exact plans remain stubbornly difficult to determine. Western intelligence officials have closely watched for signs that Russia has prepared a friendly government-in-waiting as a key indicator of its intentions. 

“As we’ve seen in the past, we expect Russia will try to force cooperation through intimidation and repression,” said a separate US official. “These acts, which in past Russian operations have included targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, detentions, and the use of torture, would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

CNN has reached out to the Ukrainian government for comment. 

Foreign Policy first reported on the details of US intelligence on the Russian planning.  

Vice President Kamala Harris attends a meeting with Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Latvian President Egils Levits, and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, during the Munich Security Conference, Friday, February 18, in Munich.

US Vice President Kamala Harris met “several times” Friday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to coordinate strategy, according to a senior administration official.

The official previewed Harris’ speech Saturday to the Munich Security Conference, telling pool reporters that, “you’ll see her speech fit into the message we’ve been sending from the start of this crisis, that we are prepared for either contingency.”

The official also laid out the core themes the VP will emphasize:

The official said Harris still plans to meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following the speech, and will also conduct some “pull asides” with other leaders.

Zelensky is scheduled to attend the conference on Saturday for meetings, but the US has told Zelensky it is up to him whether to leave Ukraine this weekend to attend.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says there is now the biggest concentration of military force in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

He said Russia has capabilities with forces and support elements in place and that it “can launch an attack with no warning time.” 

“We don’t know the intention, the plans of Russia,” he said.

Stoltenberg said there has been no sign of de-escalation from Russia and that “on the contrary, we have seen the buildup continues.”

Deputy National Security Advisor for international economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Daleep Singh, left, speaks as Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber & Emerging Tech Anne Neuberger listens during a White House daily briefing on Friday, February 18.

A White House official warned of the sanctions Russia could face for an invasion of Ukraine, telling reporters Friday that the administration is in the process of “converging on the final package,” which contains “the most severe measures we’ve ever contemplated against Russia.”

Outlining what steps will be taken in the event of an invasion, Singh said that “the cost to Russia would be immense, both to its economy and his strategic position in the world.”

“Our financial sanctions have been designed to impose overwhelming and immediate costs to the largest financial institutions and state-owned enterprises in Russia. They’ve been calibrated to maximize alignment with our allies and partners. They’re flexible to allow for further escalation or de-escalation, depending on how Putin responds,” Singh said, adding that they’ll avoid targeting the Russian people or spill over into the US and global economy. “We’re also prepared to impose powerful export controls as part of our response package. Both financial sanctions and export controls deny something to Russia that it needs and can’t get from anywhere other than the United States or our allies and partners.” 

Russia would become “a pariah to the international community” if Ukraine is invaded, Singh said.

“It will become isolated from global financial markets, and it will be deprived of the most sophisticated technological inputs. Russia would face the prospect of intense capital outflows, mounting pressure on its currency, surging inflation, higher borrowing costs, economic contraction and the erosion of its productive capacity. Taken together, Russia will become more dependent on countries that cannot compensate for its losses. This would be a strategic defeat for Russia pure and simple,” he continued.

Singh told CNN that the measures being considered “are not designed to reduce or impair Russia’s ability to supply energy to the world.”

He added that the administration believes “it would be a strategic mistake for Putin to weaponize his energy supply.

Singh also warned that if China makes accommodations to Russia in the event of Western sanction, it would send “a very bad signal for its vision of the world” and would have a “profound” impact on its reputation with Europe.

The US has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky it is up to him whether to leave Ukraine this weekend to attend a security conference in Germany.

Zelensky is scheduled to attend the Munich Security Conference on Saturday for meetings, including with US Vice President Kamala Harris. US officials have said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could occur at any moment.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether any US officials had conveyed concern to Zelensky about leaving his country amid the current crisis. She declined to delve into details of “private diplomatic conversations.”

“It’s a decision that’s up to him to make,” she said. “That is what we convey privately as well. But regardless of what decision he makes, he will have the support of the United States.”

The US government said Friday that the Russian government is responsible for recent cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks this week as tensions in the region continue to escalate. 

This attribution was unusually fast for the US government, and Neuberger noted that Russia has previously benefitted from US delays in attributing Russian hacking operations. 

“Russia likes to move in the shadows and counts on a long process of attribution so it can continue its malicious behavior against Ukraine in cyberspace, including pre-positioning for its potential invasion,” Neuberger told reporters in the White House briefing room. 

Neuberger added that the US has shared the “underlying intelligence” with Ukraine and other European allies. She warned that these attacks could lay the groundwork for more aggressive attacks ahead of a ground invasion. 

“While of limited impact, this recent spate of cyberattacks in Ukraine are consistent with what a Russian effort could look like in laying the groundwork for more disruptive cyberattacks accompanying a potential further invasion of Ukraine sovereign territory,” Neuberger said. 

She added that the US has been preparing for this possibility since November and that the US government has “intensified” its support of the Ukrainian government. 

Neuberger added that they do not believe there are no specific or “credible” cyber threats to the US homeland, but that the government remains prepared and has been communicating with the private sector. 

Service members of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces partake in tactical drills at a training ground in an unknown location in Ukraine, on February 18.

Ahead of his remarks this afternoon, US President Biden will speak with allies in North America and Europe, according to the White House.

He will hold a phone call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO to discuss the ongoing crisis. The call is closed to press.

Then, at 4 p.m. ET, Biden will give “an update on our continued efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy, and Russia’s buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine,” the White House said.

The President on Friday also called in to a meeting US Vice President Kamala Harris was holding with members of Congress who are attending the Munich Security Conference in Germany, according to a person in the room, and reiterated the work the US and allies have been doing to try to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He also updated the members on the situation at Ukraine’s borders.

Ukrainian officials say they expect Russia to be involved in “false flag” operations in the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine in an effort to create a pretext to launch an invasion.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had alleged Ukrainian forces would launch an offensive against them.

Danilov did not provide evidence but added, “We can’t say what exactly they are going to do.”

Some context: Danilov was speaking soon after an explosion in Donetsk wrecked a vehicle close to the headquarters of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The cause of the blast was unclear.

“To date, we do not see a full-scale invasion of our country. Today we can say that targeted provocations by the Russian Federation are possible,” Danilov said.

At the same news conference, Iryna Vereshchuk, minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, appealed to civilians in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to cross into Ukrainian controlled territory.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Friday that any potential sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union should not include energy imports, adding however that “mechanisms were being studied by which Italy can continue to be supplied with gas from other sources,” should that of Russia fall.

Draghi said that in the course of the discussions with its European allies, Italy had “pointed out that sanctions must be concentrated on sectors that must be as narrow as possible, without including energy.” 

“Germany uses coal, gas and still has some old nuclear power plants in operation that are gradually being shut down but are still active. France has nuclear power and some gas. Italy has only gas and has no nuclear power and no coal. Therefore, it is clear that it is more exposed,” Draghi told journalists. 

Asked about his future visit to Moscow, Draghi said: “There is no date yet, but it should be shortly.”

Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio announced Thursday that Draghi would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon, adding that he was working with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to arrange a date for the meeting.

Draghi told journalists that Putin “hinted at the possibility of continuing to guarantee gas supplies to Italy and possibly increasing them, if necessary,” in a phone conversation between the two leaders.

“This must of course also be considered in the light of the commitments and relations with other allies and what the effects of the sanctions will be. So it is a commitment that I greatly appreciate, but which today remains a commitment that needs to be evaluated according to how the situation develops,” he concluded.