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Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in recent weeks, according to US estimates, raising fears from Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials that an invasion could be imminent.
As frantic diplomatic efforts are made to avert war, analysts are warning that Russia’s military poses an immediate threat to Ukraine.
But if an invasion were to occur, it is not clear where it would begin. Russia has created pressure points on three sides of Ukraine — in Crimea to the south, on the Russian side of the two countries’ border and in Belarus to the north.
Here are the three fronts Ukraine and the West are watching, and the recent Russian movements detected in each.
Read the full story here.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the security concerns in eastern Europe, according to a statement. Canada also announced a temporary move of its embassy in Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv, according to a news release.
Trudeau shared his concerns on Saturday with Zelensky “about the continuing buildup of Russian military forces in and around Ukraine, as well as Russia’s ongoing aggression and destabilization activities,” according to a statement.
Trudeau told Zelensky that “any further military incursion” into Ukraine would have consequences for Russia, such as sanctions.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced that the country is moving its embassy in Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv due to “the continued deterioration of the security situation caused by the build up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border,” a news release said.
“We will resume operations at the embassy in Kyiv as soon as the security situation in Ukraine allows us to ensure the adequate delivery of services and guarantee the security of our staff,” Joly added.
Israel has informed its citizens to leave Ukraine as fears mount of a possible Russian invasion.
The announcement comes one day after Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced it was withdrawing the families of its diplomats serving in Ukraine because it assessed the Russian army had assembled sufficient forces along the border to invade.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with senior ministers and officials Saturday to discuss potential evacuation preparations.
An estimated 10,000-15,000 Israelis are living in Ukraine, most either connected to the tech sector or studying at universities.
The ministry said its embassy in Kyiv would continue to operate at full strength, with extra staff coming in to support the expected increase in demand for consular services.
Israeli ministers have also been discussing the possibility of helping Ukraine’s wider Jewish community, which is estimated at between 150,000-200,000 in size.
Nachman Shai, the minister responsible for diaspora affairs, urged government colleagues to be ready to act.
“If Ukraine’s Jewish community is put in danger by the Russian conflict, we must offer immediate immigration, as well as support the communities on the ground,” he tweeted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his government understands the risks from Russia and is working with international partners to resolve the conflict through diplomacy.
The Ukrainian government “is aware of the risks of escalation of the situation on the part of the Russian Federation, is preparing for any developments and is in constant consultation with international partners in order to resolve the conflict through political and diplomatic means,” he said while speaking to media in the southern region of Kherson near Crimea, where he had attended military drills.
Zelensky said his government “understand all the risks, as they receive information from various sources, including their own intelligence and intelligence agencies of partner countries.”
He added that negotiations are underway at the international level to prevent escalation.
“We work separately at the diplomatic level, we communicate daily with the leadership of different countries, leaders of different levels, because we believe that the diplomatic path is the only way to de-escalation and de-occupation,” Zelensky said.
Slovakia and Slovenia on Saturday advised their citizens not to travel to Ukraine.
The Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs told citizens not to travel to Ukraine “under any circumstance,” the ministry said Saturday on its website.
The Slovak ministry recommends to those currently in Ukraine to find an accommodation not located within or proximal to the self-governed regions — including parts of Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, Crimea and Sevastopol — it said.
The Slovenian government also advised its citizens against traveling to Ukraine.
“We advise those Slovenian citizens who are temporarily in Ukraine to ensure a safe return,” the foreign ministry said Saturday on its website.
“All trips to the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as certain areas of the Donetsk region and the Luhansk region, are also discouraged,” it said.
The Slovenian Embassy in Kyiv “cannot provide consular assistance to Slovenian citizens who would find themselves in trouble in these regions,” it added.
Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov described a phone call Saturday between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin as “balanced and businesslike,” but he said the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization had failed to address Russia’s main security concerns.
Ushakov said the conversation, which ran just over an hour, “took place in an atmosphere of hysteria about the supposedly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine by American officials, everyone knows this.”
Ushakov added: “The pressure around the topic of the invasion was carried out in a coordinated manner and the hysteria has reached its climax.”
According to Ushakov, Biden told Putin he was “committed to the diplomatic path and had laid out a range of considerations that he sees as addressing many of Russia’s concerns.”
But, Ushakov added, Putin said the West had ignored main Russia’s security concerns, saying the US and its allies had been “pumping up” Ukraine with new weaponry and encouraging provocations by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region and in Crimea.
“The Russian side, of course, will carefully analyze the considerations expressed by Biden and will undoubtedly take them into account, but unfortunately these considerations do not affect the central, key elements of Russian initiatives about NATO expansion, about not deploying strike forces on Ukrainian territory, about the return of the [NATO] alliance to the state of 1997,” Ushakov said.
France has advised its citizens “against all travel” to Ukraine, the country’s foreign ministry said Saturday in a statement, joining a growing list of other nations that have updated their travel advice.
“In the context of the tensions created by the concentration of Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine, it is recommended to be extra vigilant,” the ministry said on its website. “Travel to the northern and eastern border areas of the country is strongly discouraged.”
“It is advised to postpone all travels to Ukraine,” the ministry said, adding that these recommendations will continue to be updated according to the information available.
French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday for more than an hour and a half.
Serbia’s authorities have ordered large quantities of food in light of the Ukraine-Russia crisis, President Aleksandar Vučić said on Friday, CNN’s affiliate N1 reported.
Speaking during a live debate on the pro-government TV Prva on Friday, Vučić said that authorities ordered 30 million kilograms of salt and a million kilograms each of peas and beans as well as 30 million kilograms of flour and powdered milk, N1 reported.
Vučić also added that fuel supplies have not been secured yet.
Sweden on Saturday urged its citizens to leave Ukraine and advised against “all travel” to the country, joining a host of other countries updating their travel advice.
“Due to the serious and unpredictable security situation in Ukraine and its immediate area, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has today decided to advise against all travel to Ukraine and urges all Swedes who are in Ukraine to leave the country,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in a tweet.
On Friday, Denmark advised Danish nationals to leave Ukraine, in light of the “serious security situation” in and around the country, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
The ministry “is now raising the level of security in the travel guidance for Ukraine to red. Therefore, all travel to Ukraine is advised against, and all Danes in Ukraine are advised to leave the country,” it said.
The Danish embassy in Kyiv remains open and operational for now.
“It is still possible to leave Ukraine by regular air routes and by road and rail. It is not possible to say whether or when those opportunities may be curtailed, and Danes in Ukraine are therefore encouraged to leave the country,” the ministry said, adding that Danish authorities cannot guarantee assistance to Danes who choose to stay in Ukraine at a later date.
Biden administration officials on Saturday reiterated their calls for US companies to remain vigilant in the face of potential Russian hacking threats amid concern over Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine’s border.
“While there are no specific credible threats to the US homeland at this time, we are mindful of the potential for Russia to consider escalating its destabilizing actions in ways that may affect our critical infrastructure,” US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly tweeted Saturday.
Agencies across the US government have for months warned of the possibility that Russian cyber threats to Ukraine could have ripple effects around the world. US officials have also been wary of retaliatory Russian hacking operations in the event that Washington and its allies slap punishing sanctions on Moscow.
The US preparations have included classified briefings for the financial sector and an overview of Russian cyber capabilities for energy companies, CNN has previously reported.
A hacking group with ties to a Russian government institute probed the networks of US electric utilities in December, but no known compromises have occurred, private sector analysts previously told CNN.
President Biden’s hourlong call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday morning was “professional and substantive,” a senior administration official said, but “there was no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks.”
The call came one day after US national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Russia could be preparing to attack Ukraine before the end of the Beijing Olympics on Feb. 20 and told Americans in Ukraine that they should leave the country within 48 hours. The US has continued to reduce its diplomatic presence in Kyiv, the official said, echoing a State Department announcement this morning that more US diplomats will be moving out of the capital city.
“We remain committed to keeping the prospect of de-escalation through diplomacy alive,” the official said. “But we’re also clear-eyed about the prospects of that, given the readily apparent steps Russia is taking on the ground in plain sight, right before our eyes. The stakes of this are too high not to give Russia every chance to avoid an action that we believe would be catastrophic. So as always, we continue along two paths.”
The official said that Biden reiterated the US’s ideas for steps to both enhance European security and address some of Russia’s security concerns but noted that it “remains unclear whether Russia is interested in pursuing its goals diplomatically.”
Asked whether Russia has made a decision to invade, the official said, “I think the honest answer to that question is we don’t have full visibility into President Putin’s decision making.”
The official said that US will continue and even increase its support for Ukraine to help it defend itself should Russia continue to escalate its aggression.
“As to our plans going forward, I think President Biden and other officials have been clear, that should Russia continue down the path to escalation, the United States will continue to increase our support to Ukraine, to enable it to defend itself, and you know, that approach has not changed,” the official said.
CNN’s DJ Judd and Sam Fossum contributed reporting to this post.
During US President Biden’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the White House says Biden “was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.”
Biden’s call with Putin started at 11:04 a.m. ET and lasted just over an hour, concluding at 12:06 p.m. ET.
UK Minister for the Armed Forces James Heappey said that all British military trainers will leave Ukraine “over the course of the weekend,” in an interview with BBC Radio 4 earlier.
A British diplomat told CNN Saturday, “This proves NATO isn’t a threat to Russia — we are only defensive. As we have always said, we are not sending our troops to fight.”
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss “about acute and shared concerns that Russia may be considering launching further military aggression against Ukraine in the coming days,” according to a US State Department statement.
Truss tweeted she and Blinken agreed that “Russia will face massive consequences for any invasion, including severe sanctions.”
President Biden’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin was completed at 12:06 p.m. ET, according to a White House official.
The call clocked in at one hour and two minutes.
The discussion between the two leaders came hours after the US moved some of its forces out of Ukraine and ordered the evacuation of most of its embassy staff on Saturday as fears mount that a Russian invasion of the country could take place in the next few days.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Saturday that Russia — which he described as “the aggressor” — would not capture any Ukrainian cities if it attempts to invade the country.
In a statement, Reznikov said the “armed forces of Ukraine are absolutely ready to fight back and will not give up Ukrainian lands,” as fears of a Russian invasion grow among the country’s international allies.
Back in 2014, Reznikov said Ukrainians “were not psychologically ready to resist someone with whom they sat at the same table yesterday,” but “the situation is completely different” now. That was the year in which Russia annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimea peninsula and conflict broke out between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.
The defense minister added that Ukraine has its most powerful army in 15 years.
Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in the statement that an active phase of command and staff exercises was underway at training grounds throughout the country. Ukraine is “constantly increasing our defense capabilities, coherence of units and military skills,” he said.
Having strengthened its defenses for the capital of Kyiv, and “gone through war and proper training,” Ukraine is now “ready to meet enemies… not with flowers, but with stingers, Javelins and NLAW,” Zaluzhny said, referring to weaponry systems.
Reznikov added that the country was also bolstered by the “unprecedented support” it has received from international partners, describing that support as “the largest ever since independence.”
He urged Ukrainians to “remain calm” in the face of mounting warnings, calling calmness “the main weapon that can provide us with a solid foundation for defense.”
During his call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the “growing concern” of the United States about Russia’s ability to launch an invasion of Ukraine in coming days, a senior State Department official told reporters traveling with Blinken. The secretary of state also pressed for details about when Russia will submit its formal response to the US.
The official said Lavrov did not give details of what would be in the Russian response.
Asked by CNN whether Blinken told Lavrov that diplomacy would end if Russia invades Ukraine, the official said they “would not say that the Secretary said if Russia invades the path diplomacy is dead,” but with any Russian invasion, “we would, at that point, you know, immediately switch to the path of imposing the cost that we’ve developed for the past two months with our allies and partners, and that would be our main focus.”
During the call, Blinken “emphasized the priority that we place on safety of American citizens, diplomatic personnel and our embassy facility,” the official said.
The State Department on Saturday ordered the departure of most US direct hire employees from the US Embassy in Kyiv.
The official told reporters that Lavrov again “denied that Russia has any intention to invade Ukraine.”
Blinken also “certainly noted that… in response to the foreign minister citing that the current military posturing and exercises are being done on Russian soil, that Belarus is not Russian soil, and so there was a discussion of that,” the official said.
Dutch airline KLM will “immediately” stop flying to Ukraine, CNN’s affiliates RTL News and NOS reported on Saturday.
The KLM flight scheduled to land in the capital Kyiv on Saturday evening has been canceled, RTL News reported, adding that KLM aircraft will no longer fly through Ukraine’s airspace until further notice.
Normally, KLM flies to Kyiv twice a day, NOS reported.
Earlier on Saturday, the Dutch Ministry for Foreign Affairs urged all Dutch people to leave Ukraine in light of the worsening security situation in the country.
Crowds of people gathered in the Ukrainian capital Saturday afternoon for what was billed as a “March of Unity for Ukraine.” CNN’s team in Kyiv reported that many of the people marching carried Ukrainian flags and signs with pro-Ukrainian slogans.
About 2,000 to 3,000 people marched from Shevchenko Park to Maidan Square, also known as Independence Square, in Kyiv with the goal of demonstrating “unity in the face of a common threat,” according to organizers.
Several demonstrators taking part in the peaceful march spoke to CNN to voice their support for a democratic Ukraine, free from the influence of Russia.
Another demonstrator, Vyacheslav Stelmah, told CNN that “Ukrainians will resist the possible Russian aggression. We are not going to just stay calm and stay silent while Russia poses a significant risk to our country.”
Among the many signs in the crowd was a large red one that read #PutinWarCriminal and #PutinMassMurderer.
The Ukrainian government has continued to urge its citizens to remain calm in the face of the threat of a Russian invasion. Earlier on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cast some doubt on suggestions that Russia might take military action as soon as next week, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was critical for citizens to remain calm, stay united, and “refrain from actions that undermine stability and sow panic.”
President Joe Biden’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin began at 11:04 a.m. ET, according to the White House pool.
The call comes following a week of diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict in Ukraine as Russia continues its buildup of troops near the Ukrainian border.
The United States has moved some US forces out of Ukraine and ordered the evacuation of most of its embassy staff on Saturday as fears mount that a Russian invasion of the country could potentially take place in the next few days.
The Kremlin described a call Saturday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron as involving an “in-depth exchange of views” on issues relating to Russian security and “overcoming the impasse in resolving the intra-Ukrainian conflict.”
According to a Kremlin readout, “Vladimir Putin once again drew attention to the lack of a substantive response from the United States and NATO to well-known Russian initiatives. The unwillingness of the leading Western countries to push the Kyiv authorities to implement the Minsk agreements was also emphasized.”
Following months of fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Kyiv and Moscow signed a peace deal in Minsk in 2015. The deal, brokered by France and Germany, has never been fully implemented.
The two sides agreed to maintain dialogue on these issues “at the highest level,” the Kremlin readout added.
