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Stocks rise after Fed hikes rates

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What we covered here

  • The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point at the conclusion of its two-day Open Markets Committee meeting. That marks the smallest rate hike since March 2022. Since then, the Fed has raised by a half-point twice and a historically high three-quarters of a point four times to combat inflation.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference that the Fed will continue to hike rates for the foreseeable future. Although the Fed was expected to slow its pace of rate hikes, Powell has repeatedly said the central bank won’t consider rate cuts until the committee is “confident” that inflation is moving toward its 2% target.
  • Stocks closed higher as investors were cheered by Powell’s optimistic comments about the economy.
29 Posts

After the Fed's latest move, how come you're still not getting a higher rate on your bank savings?

Interest rates are higher (again), courtesy of the Federal Reserve, which just hiked its benchmark interest rate for the eighth time in a row since last March.

So how come you’re not getting a higher rate on your bank savings? If your hard-earned money is just sitting in an account at a big-name bank earning bunk (still), you can do much better by moving it to an online bank’s high-yield savings account. 

And there are plenty of other ways you can benefit from rising rates, while also protecting yourself from their additional costs. Read here for more.

Stocks finish higher as market takes rate hike in stride

US stocks rallied after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday. The move was widely expected, and the Fed signaled that “ongoing increases” to short-term rates “will be appropriate.”

But Wall Street seemed to take solace from the fact that inflation pressures are easing, which should allow the Fed to raise rates far more gradually than it did last year.  

Investors are also waiting for earnings after the closing bell from Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms. The stock was up nearly 3% Wednesday and has rallied more than 25% so far this year.

The Dow was up nearly 10 points, essentially unchanged.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1%.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 2%.

As stocks settle after the trading day, levels might still change slightly.

Stocks pick up steam despite latest Fed rate hike

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a screen shows Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell during a news conference following a Fed rate announcement today.

Don’t fight the Fed? More like don’t fight the Wall Street bulls.

The Federal Reserve raised rates. Again. Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to stress that the Fed has more to do to get inflation in check. Nothing new there. Add that up and it seems clear that more rate hikes are on the way. No Fed pause just yet. And forget about rate cuts by the end of the year.

But investors mostly cheered the latest moves from the Fed. The Dow was flat but the other two major market indexes were near their highest levels of the day in the last hour of trading, rebounding from losses earlier in the trading session. It looks like this is a market that just wants to keep climbing. Investor sentiment has improved dramatically in recent weeks. Stocks enjoyed a strong rally in January as a result.

The Dow was up about 35 points, or 0.1%.

The S&P 500 rose 1%.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9%.

Why the Fed took Covid out of its policy decision

Fed Chair Jerome Powell got Covid two weeks ago. So it seems like odd timing for the Fed to cut any reference to the pandemic from its policy statement for the first time in nearly three years.

The Fed believes Covid is no longer a predominant factor weighing on the US economy. (Similarly, President Joe Biden intends to end the Covid-19 national and public health emergencies on May 11, the White House said Monday.)

“I personally understand well that Covid is still out there, but that it is no longer playing an important role in our economy,” Powell said. “We kept that statement in there for quite a while, and I think we knew we would take it out at some point. There is never a perfect time, but we thought that – you know, people are handling it better, and the economy and society are handling it better. It doesn’t really need to be in the Fed’s post-meeting statement as an ongoing economic risk, as opposed to a health issue.”

Why lower inflation doesn't mean a slowing economy

A person shops at a supermarket in New York City on December 14, 2022.

Inflation and employment are typically on opposite ends of a scale, and the Fed’s job is to balance them. But it’s not always correct to say lower inflation means higher unemployment.

At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that lower inflation means consumers will start to spend more. Although he does expect America’s economic growth to slow this year, he thinks lower unemployment could actually help buoy GDP in the long run.

“As inflation does come down, sentiment will improve,” Powell said. “There is a lot of spending coming in the construction pipeline both private and public. That will support economic activity. So I think there is a good chance that those factors will help support positive growth this year.”

Powell: The Fed isn't ready to hit pause on rate hikes anytime soon

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen on September 19, 2022 in Washington, DC.

Is the Federal Reserve considering a pause on rate hikes after reducing the pace from three-quarters of a point to a half point to a quarter point in consecutive meetings? Probably not, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says.

“This is not something that the committee is thinking about or exploring in any kind of detail,” Powell said Wednesday. “In principle, though … I think a lot of options are available.”

Powell noted that the perspective on the relative pace of rate hikes changes over time, pointing out how the Fed used to raise rates by a quarter point every other meeting, “and that was considered a fast pace.”

But hitting pause isn’t on the Fed’s mind right at the moment.

“This is not something that the Federal Open Market Committee is on the point of deciding right now,” Powell said.

Powell: Raise the debt ceiling now

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn’t mince words about the debt ceiling: Raise it now.

“I feel like I have to say this,” Powell said in Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference. “There is only one way forward here, and that is for Congress to raise the debt ceiling so the United States government can pay all of its obligations when due. Any deviations from that path would be highly risky and no one should assume the Fed can protect the economy from the consequences of failing to act in a timey manner.”

Failure to raise the debt ceiling could mean the United States will default on its debt obligations. A default could be catastrophic, causing “irreparable harm to the US economy, the livelihoods of all Americans and global financial stability,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned.

Powell: Our job is not done

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, today.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will probably continue to hike rates for the foreseeable future to combat stubbornly high inflation.

Although inflation has come down significantly over the past several months, it’s still more than double the Fed’s target annual rate of 2%.

“I think it would be very premature to declare victory or think we really got this,” Powell said at a press conference. “The job is not fully done.”

Powell noted that the Fed continues to err on the side of caution on inflation. That means the central bank would rather hurt the economy too much to bring inflation down than take its foot off the rate-hike gas too soon and cause inflation to rise again.

“I continue to think that it is very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little, and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done,” Powell said. “We have no incentive or desire to over-tighten, but if we feel we have gone too far … we have tools that would work on that.”

Stocks are all over the place after Fed rate hike

The market can’t seem to figure out how to interpret the latest Federal Reserve rate hike.

Stocks initially bounced off their lows. Then the Dow reversed gears and plunged more than 450 points. By about 2:45 ET (15 minutes into the Fed press conference and 45 minutes after the Fed statement was released) the Dow was well off its lows again and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were solidly higher.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference that the Fed is committed to sticking with its current policy of fighting inflation until the job is done. And the Fed noted in its statement that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”

Ongoing increases. Plural. That doesn’t imply that a pause in rate hikes is coming anytime soon.

Still, investors seemed to take comfort from the fact that the Fed is no longer raising rates by the historically large levels of last year.

The Dow was down about 5 points, essentially flat.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8%.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5%.

Powell: Gratified by a strong job market

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaking during a news conference today in Washington, DC.

No one is upset that America’s labor market remains strong – not even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The common belief on Wall Street was that Powell wanted to see layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, because that would serve as evidence that the Fed is cooling off the red-hot economy to keep inflation under control.

But that’s not what Powell said Wednesday.

“I will say it is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting under way, and we continue to get strong labor market data,” he said.

Powell noted that Wednesday’s job openings report came in higher than expected, and though wage growth is easing up, “By many, many indicators, the job market is still very strong.”

Powell: We need substantially more evidence inflation is falling for good

In a press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed’s rate hikes have helped bring inflation lower – but its fight is far from over.

Powell noted annual inflation remains well above the Fed’s goal of 2% – it was most recently at 5% according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

“The inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases,” Powell said. “While recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.”

Powell noted the Fed has made mistakes before by easing off the rate-hike gas pedal too early and causing another inflation spike.

“The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done,” he said.

Here are the changes Fed officials made in their policy statement

The wording in the official Federal Reserve statement generally remains the same at each meeting but, as a result, even a small change to that text carries significant meaning.

Here’s what’s new in the February statement:

  • A new sentence was added to the top, acknowledging that disinflation has begun. “Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.”
  • “Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are contributing to upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity” was changed to “Russia’s was against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty.”
  • “‘Pace” was changed to “extent” in the following sentence. “In determining the pace extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
  • Policymakers omitted “readings on public health” as a way it will assess risks that could prevent the Fed from achieving its goal of returning inflation to 2%. “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”

Stocks off their lows following latest Fed rate hike

There are still a couple of hours in the trading day. Investors have yet to hear from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. But the market’s immediate reaction to the Fed’s (widely expected) quarter-point rate hike was a positive one.

The Dow and S&P 500, while still in the red, were off their lows from earlier in the session. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq turned positive.

The Dow was down 280 points, or 0.8%, after the Fed announcement.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2%.

The Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.2%.

Fed approves smallest rate hike since March, in nod to improved inflation outlook

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen on September 19, 2022 in Washington, DC.

The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point interest rate hike Wednesday, slowing the pace of its increases in a clear sign that the central bank is seeing progress in its fierce battle with inflation.

The decision, at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s first meeting of 2023, comes after months of jumbo-sized rate increases intended to cool the economy, and marks the return to a more traditional interest-rate policy.

Read more

FedEx's latest staff trims take aim only at top execs

FedEx is the latest company announcing a staff cut, but it’s reducing headcount only at the top of the company, not through most of its ranks.

FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam announced Wednesday that the company would cut more than 10% from its ranks of corporate officers and directors. The broad range of salaried and hourly staff will not be affected. He said the cuts are necessary to ensure the delivery company remains “competitive in a rapidly changing environment.”

In September, FedEx announced a series of broad cost cuts and staffing reductions in the face of slowing business and the rising risk of a global recession. The cost cuts included reducing flights and temporarily parking aircraft, trimming staff hours, delaying some hiring plans and closing 90 FedEx Office locations as well as five corporate offices.

Since the start of our fiscal year in June 2022, our US headcount has been reduced by more than 12,000 positions through attrition and headcount management initiatives,” said the company in a statement.

FedEx went into the current fiscal year with 345,000 permanent full-time and approximately 202,000 permanent part-time employees globally.

Adani scraps $2.5 billion share issue as value of his empire collapses

Gautam Adani speaking during the World Congress of Accountants in Mumbai on November 19, 2022.

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani on Wednesday abandoned an attempt to raise $2.5 billion from investors after allegations of fraud by an American short seller triggered a week-long meltdown in the value of his business empire.

Stocks still lower ahead of Fed decision

The Federal Reserve is probably going to follow the lead of the Radiohead song “No Surprises.”

No alarms and no surprises, please.

Investors are expecting a quarter-point rate hike. It would be a monumental shock to Wall Street if the Fed leaves rates unchanged or boosts them by a half-point. But after today? That’s where things get interesting.

Stocks tumbled Wednesday in the hours before the Fed’s 2pm announcement. Investors may be nervous that Fed chair Jerome Powell will continue to sound “hawkish” in the press conference, meaning that he’s still leaning towards more rate hikes before pausing.

One of the reasons the market rallied so sharply in January was that inflation pressures have continued to subside, fueling hopes that the Fed might stop raising rates at some point later this year – and might even cut rates if the job market starts to cool.

The Dow tumbled more than 325 points, or 1%, in midday trading.

The S&P 500 was down 0.5%.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.

Peloton no longer spinning its wheels as sales top forecasts?

A woman uses her Peloton exercise bike at her home in April 2020 in San Anselmo, California. 

Get on your bike and ride to nowhere? Exercise equipment maker Peloton, which has been struggling to make money despite a cult-like following among suburban millennials, might be on the road to recovery.

Even though Peloton reported another big quarterly loss Wednesday that was more than what Wall Street expected, revenue easily topped forecasts. That was due to both strong sales of Peloton bikes and other equipment as well as subscription revenue tied to the company’s workout classes.

Shares of Peloton (PTON) surged 20% on the news. The stock has nearly doubled so far in 2023…but remains well below its peak pandemic-era highs after plunging almost 80% last year.

Peloton’s woes have led to some speculation that the company could be a takeover target for a larger tech or consumer firm like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon or Nike. Or that it should consider going private.

But CEO Barry McCarthy is bullish on the company’s future, saying in a letter to shareholders Wednesday: “If you’ve been wondering whether or not Peloton can make an epic comeback, this quarter’s results show the changes we’re making are working.”

Michael Burry of "The Big Short" issues one-word cryptic tweet

Michael Burry seen in November 2015 at "The Big Short" screening at the Ziegfeld Theater in New York City.

Remember Michael Burry, the extremely bearish investing guru/hedge fund manager played by Christian Bale in “The Big Short” movie?

Burry, who has an on-again-off-again presence on Twitter, once again seems to be nervous about the market. …We think.

Burry tweeted one word late Tuesday: “Sell.” There was no further explanation. Sell what? Stocks? Bonds? Crypto? Your soul? Everything? And is Burry’s warning one of the reasons the stock market was lower Wednesday? Who knows.

The tweet was deleted shortly after it popped up. Burry has a habit of writing tweets and then removing them. He’s even deleted his account in the past, only to restore it later. Thankfully, there is another Twitter account with the handle @BurryArchive that screen grabs Burry’s tweets.

For what it’s worth, the actual Burry tweeted again on Wednesday morning. But there was no market advice in it. He simply posted a video of a Jimi Hendrix performance on YouTube.

Although when you click the link in Twitter, the video is not available. (It does seem to work on YouTube itself.) So maybe investors should “sell” Google/YouTube owner Alphabet?

Sam Bankman-Fried’s bail is tightened over ‘threat’ of witness tampering

Sam Bankman-Fried is in trouble, once again, for talking too much.

A federal judge on Wednesday temporarily tightened the FTX founder’s bail conditions after learning that Bankman-Fried sent a text message to a former top executive of the crypto trading platform. The judge said that appeared to be a “material threat of inappropriate contact with prospective witnesses.”

Judge Lewis Kaplan said Bankman-Fried is not allowed to contact current or former employees of FTX without attorneys present, nor to communicate over encrypted messaging apps until Kaplan hears arguments from both sides at a hearing next week.

The restriction comes after federal prosecutors raised the prospect of witness tampering when it discovered that Bankman-Fried had recently contacted the former general counsel of FTX, identified at “Witness-1” in court filings.

Read more

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