Flood threat ramps up over Texas

Overview: a Level 1 of 4 threat of flooding rainfall is currently in effect over parts of southern and western Texas. Scattered showers are ongoing and will expand over the region overnight.

The most serious flood threat begins early Sunday morning, when the threat of flooding rain rises to a Level 2 of 4 for parts of southern Texas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in places where storms repeatedly pass over the same area.

Confidence: We are confident there will be widespread storms, but pinpointing exactly which places will experience the most significant flooding is less certain.

That’s because it’s difficult to pinpoint where the most drenching storms will track until they actually form. At that point, flash flood warnings will be issued by the National Weather Service in real-time for areas of greater danger.

Timing: Scattered storms are ongoing in southwestern and central Texas Saturday and will spread further into southern Texas overnight. The most serious flood threat will begin just after midnight Sunday and continue through the daytime until at least Sunday evening.

Impacts: The worst flooding will be in places that see storms continuously pass over the same area through Sunday. Peak rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour under the heaviest storms, which could quickly lead to flash flooding.

Rainfall totals: Amounts will vary widely depending on exactly where storms track. Widespread rainfall could total 2 to 3 inches, with isolated totals from 5 to 8+ inches possible.