On the campaign trail
• Eyes on Alaska: The Republican governor has ordered an investigation into whether criminal charges or civil penalties should be brought over alleged Democratic efforts to confuse voters by recruiting a Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan. Both Mary Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee denied involvement in the reported plan.
• Democrats in striking distance: New CNN polling found Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters in Michigan, and Democrat James Talarico has a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas. There’s no clear leader in Maine or Kansas.
• Early voting data: CNN analyzed early voting data in 25 states, finding that Democrats have a 14-point advantage in turnout among high-propensity voters (those who participated in the last two general elections). There’s still time for Republicans: A large share of high-propensity GOP voters has yet to cast their ballots.
Updates
(14)Vance says Peltola committed a "moral failing" even if not illegal
Vice President JD Vance said he believes Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola committed a “moral failing” but stopped short of insisting, as President Donald Trump has, that she should face criminal charges.
“She is trying to steal a Senate seat from the voters of Alaska, and it’s disgraceful. So whether it’s criminal or not, she certainly has committed, I think, a great moral failing,” Vance told reporters Thursday before heading to Texas.
“We should certainly look into whether she committed election fraud,” Vance added, but he did not accuse the her of any illegality.
Peltola, who is locked in a tight race with GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, has denied being involved in propping up a spoiler candidate in the Alaska Senate race. The New York Times reported Wednesday that Democrats were behind getting another Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
Vance also pushed back against the ranked-choice voting system, which allowed both the incumbent senator and Dan J. Sullivan to make it to the general election ballot.
“I don’t understand it. It seems to me that you have an election. The person who wins the most votes should win,” Vance said.
Trump defends how he handled relationship with Epstein after getting heckled at rally
A few protesters interrupted President Trump during a midterm rally in Chillicothe, Ohio, with one shouting, “Trump went on the Jeffrey Epstein plane.” All were seen escorted out of the venue.
Trump defended how he handled his relationship with Epstein. Visibly irritated, the president went on to say he had kicked the deceased convicted sex offender out of his Palm Beach club years ago.
“I threw Jeffrey Epstein the hell out of Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said, adding, “that was a great thing I did.”
Bipartisan senators scrutinize Kalshi and Polymarket about insider trading on the midterms
A bipartisan pair of senators are raising concerns about election markets on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have already seen over $1.4 billion in midterm-related betting.
Utah GOP Sen. John Curtis and Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren demanded answers from the companies in a letter about “what’s being done to stop insider trading on election markets,” which they said “undermines the overall integrity of the American electoral process.”
“We remain skeptical that prediction market operators can effectively police their own platforms, and question whether the purported benefits of these markets justify the potential harm to the integrity of the information Americans rely on to understand our elections,” the senators wrote in the letter first obtained by CNN.
Prediction markets, where people can bet on real-world events like sports, elections and entertainment, have exploded in popularity this year.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the biggest prediction sites in the world, now offer betting markets for every congressional and gubernatorial race, as well as super-specific markets about turnout, margins of victory, candidate endorsements, and more.
Both companies insist they conduct rigorous surveillance to prevent insider trading.
The head of Polymarket’s surveillance team recently told NPR they have probed dozens of insider trading cases tied to the midterms. A Polymarket spokesperson told CNN the company “actively monitors election-related activity” and looks forward to “engaging with Senators Warren and Curtis to educate them on how our platform is a pioneer in transparency and market integrity.”
Already this year, Kalshi announced that it found at least six candidates who bet on their own races, violating platform rules. The company’s head of enforcement, Bobby DeNault, said in a statement that “Kalshi prohibits insider trading and market manipulation and proactively blocks candidates and campaign staff from trading to protect market integrity.”
The senators asked the companies to disclose by Tuesday how many political insider trading cases they’ve uncovered, and how many cases they’ve referred to federal regulators or law enforcement for further investigation.
Prediction sites are facing legal challenges from dozens of states, which want to regulate and tax them like gambling. Curtis’ home state even filed criminal charges Wednesday against Kalshi for allegedly promoting illegal gambling. (The company denies wrongdoing.)
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, including elections. But CNN editorial employees aren’t permitted to trade on prediction sites.
Ohio senator suggests El-Sayed should not be elected because of his faith
Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno suggested at a rally yesterday that Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who is Muslim, shouldn’t be elected because of his religious beliefs.
CNN has reached out to Moreno and El-Sayed for comment.
Republicans have repeatedly attacked El-Sayed on the campaign trail over his faith, with President Donald Trump referring to the Democrat as “Mohammed” and claiming he has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
“There’s a reason they keep saying my name and pointing to my faith, and it’s because they think they can distract you from paying attention to the issues of your life,” El-Sayed said at a recent event, pointing to high gas and grocery prices.
A new CNN poll shows that El-Sayed has opened up a lead — 49% to 42% —over Rogers among likely voters.
Democratic group to spend $19 million on getting people to vote in 3 states
A Democratic group focused on voting rights is spending more than $19 million to turn out voters in three battleground states as the midterms wind down.
Defend the Vote Action Fund will spend $19.2 million on the effort in Michigan, Ohio and Texas, according to an announcement first shared with CNN. All three states have competitive Senate and governor’s races.
The campaign is geared toward voters who “have been historically disenfranchised or have turned out in lower numbers” in the past, such as young and Black voters in Michigan, the group said.
The effort will target them with digital ads featuring content creators and testimonials from local voters.
“I know it’s easy to feel a bit disconnected at times,” a content creator says in one of the ads, while making avocado toast. She goes on to say voting “won’t fix everything, but it is part of how we make change.”
The $19.2 million campaign is part of $65 million in spending this election cycle by Defend the Vote.
Rep. Haley Stevens reaffirms El-Sayed support and discusses her "household divided"
Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens reaffirmed her support for Senate Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed but told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that voters are uneasy over what she called “hateful rhetoric” in his campaign ads.
“I’m voting for the Democratic ticket, but I want to encourage, you know, this campaign to shut out the hate and to call it out and to make people who were in my coalition, right, make them feel comfortable about coming to the polls,” she said.
The two Democrats haven’t spoken in recent months, according to sources.
Stevens’ comments came the same day The Detroit News reported her fiancé, Jason Turkish, said he’s voting for Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan’s high-stakes Senate race.
Listen to what Stevens says about her “household divided”:
Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens reaffirmed her support for Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed after The Detroit News reported her fiancé said he’s voting for Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the state's high-stakes Senate race.
Obama continues to needle Trump about The Cheesecake Factory
At a rally in Georgia last night, former President Barack Obama said President Donald Trump was more offended by his comments likening the White House renovations to The Cheesecake Factory than by rising costs in the US.
“I am the father of two daughters. Do you think I could have survived their childhood without going to The Cheesecake Factory? I lived at Chuck E. Cheese and California Pizza Kitchen and The Cheesecake Factory,” Obama quipped.
Alaska in focus after explosive report. Catch up on campaign news here
Alaska’s Republican governor has ordered an investigation into whether criminal charges or civil penalties should be brought over alleged Democratic efforts to confuse voters by recruiting a Senate candidate with the same name as GOP incumbent candidate Dan Sullivan.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said Democrat Mary Peltola should drop out of the Alaska Senate race and face criminal charges over the allegations raised in a New York Times report.
Experts have said the reported recruiting of a spoiler candidate didn’t appear to be illegal.
The Democrat’s opponent told Fox News that Peltola should “come clean.” But her campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have both denied involvement in the alleged plan.
Alaska election officials previously told CNN that there’s still no role for the Trump administration in deciding who gets to run, after the DOJ filed a lawsuit to block certification of the election if the incumbent loses, citing the confusion that could be caused by two Dan Sullivans.
CNN’s Stephen Collinson outlines the questions the controversy raises here.
Here are Wednesday’s top headlines:
- Former President Barack Obama took shots at Trump at a rally in Georgia, calling out White House corruption and chiding the administration over the war in Iran. In Ohio, Trump downplayed the impact of Obama’s campaigning. Both revived their spat over Obama’s comparison of Trump’s White House renovation decor to a Cheesecake Factory.
At a rally in Georgia, former President Barack Obama said President Donald Trump was more offended by his comments likening the White House renovations to the Cheesecake Factory than being compared to Saddam Hussein or by rising costs in the US.
- Trump told Ohio voters that he would consider putting the new US Space Academy in their state if Republican Sen. Jon Husted wins. Trump has made transactional promises in roughly half of states holding key Senate contests.
- A federal judge is refusing to allow the Justice Department to intervene in California’s mail-in ballot counting, warning that the Trump administration’s request to segregate as many as 20,000 ballots to vet voters’ citizenship would “wreak havoc.”
- The Republican party in one Texas county is asking a federal judge to require the state to hand count all ballots before the final certification of the election results.
- Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens reaffirmed her support for Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, but said she thinks he could go further in denouncing his “hateful ads.” The two Democrats haven’t spoken in recent months, according to sources, and Stevens’ fiancé said he’s voting for El-Sayed’s Republican opponent.
Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens reaffirmed her support for Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed after The Detroit News reported her fiancé said he’s voting for Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the state's high-stakes Senate race.
- In New Hampshire, a Senate candidate debate turned into a battle over whose supporters are more politically toxic. John E. Sununu pointed out that Chris Pappas has campaigned alongside former Vice President Kamala Harris, while the Democrat said his opponent has Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.” The exchange was an example of how both are trying to associate their rivals with unpopular brands.
- Some young voters in the Pittsburgh area who spoke with CNN’s Omar Jimenez cited political polarization and job prospects as two major concerns ahead of the midterms.
CNN’s Jeremy Herb, Katelyn Polantz, Kaanita Iyer, Stephen Collinson, Kit Maher, Manu Raju, Ellis Kim, Rebekah Riess, Andy Rose, Steve Contorno, Eric Bradner and Marshall Cohen contributed to this report.
What CNN learned from studying early voting data on high- and low-propensity voters
Millions of early votes have now been cast across the country, and registered Democrats have consistently outpaced Republicans in turnout relative to 2024.
This lead is driven in part by stronger turnout among Democratic voters who don’t typically vote in every election. Especially in a midterm election, voters with a track record of turning out are much more likely to come out to the polls — either early or on Election Day.
So if those voters make up a larger share of a party’s pre-election voters, it could suggest that voters who would be expected to vote eventually are just voting earlier instead.
But among early votes so far, Republicans are actually more reliant on these high-propensity voters, while Democrats are having success turning out voters who might not be expected to vote in a midterm.
Alaska governor orders investigation into Peltola campaign
Alaska’s governor on Wednesday night announced he was ordering an investigation into whether criminal charges or civil penalties should be brought over alleged Democratic efforts to confuse voters by recruiting a Senate candidate with the same name as GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan.
Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy made the announcement following a bombshell report from the New York Times about Democrats aligned with candidate Mary Peltola, noting on X the Alaska Division of Elections investigated such concerns in June.
CNN has reached out to Peltola’s campaign for comment, as well as the Alaska Division of Elections and the state’s Department of Public Safety for more information. Both Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have denied involvement in the alleged plan.
Peltola, the state’s former at-large House member, is considered one of Senate Democrats’ top recruits of the midterms.
Earlier Wednesday, President Donald Trump seized on the explosive report, calling it “Voter Fraud at the Highest Level,” and urged Peltola be “removed from the ballot and prosecuted.”
Alaska election officials told CNN on Wednesday that the report does not change the state’s opposition to a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to potentially delay certification of the election.
New CNN polls in four states highlight Democrats' path to Senate majority
CNN polling across four key Senate races finds Democrats well-positioned in Michigan and Texas, with no clear leader in the races in Maine or Kansas.
The four states tell the story of a playing field that has shifted in unexpected ways, leaving Democrats hopeful that they’ll be able to take control of the Senate.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters amid signs that the state’s Democratic base has unified behind him, and that discouraged Republicans are checking out.
Texas gives Democrat James Talarico (49%) a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters. Talarico’s bid benefits from deeply negative impressions of Paxton, as well as sizable support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.
Early on, Maine was widely viewed as one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities, with Sen. Susan Collins the only Republican up for reelection in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. But the race has remained tight: The new poll of likely voters finds no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), even as the race has become squarely a referendum on Collins.
And in deep-red Kansas, there is no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton.
These states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to make a play for Senate control. They exemplify the range of the playing field in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power, and of the ways in which candidates can overcome – or succumb to – the forces of political habit.
How Trump is priming supporters to doubt the midterm results
President Donald Trump says the polls are rigged, and some of his supporters believe him. Harry Enten tells Donie O’Sullivan why they’re wrong.
Trump says the polls are rigged, and some of his supporters believe him. CNN’s Harry Enten explains to Donie O’Sullivan why they’re wrong.
What early voting data says about high- and low-propensity voters
CNN analyzed early voting data in 25 states that are reporting both counts of early votes cast and where voters register with a party, using data from Catalist, and found a Democratic advantage in turnout among both low- and high-propensity voters.
Across the 25 states, Democrats have a 14-point advantage in turnout among high propensity voters (those who participated in the last two general elections). This lead is up to 18 points among voters who cast a ballot in just one of the two elections and also among those who turned out in neither.
At the same point in 2024, Democrats had a 6-point lead among voters who turned out in both the 2020 and 2022 elections and a 1-point lead among voters who stayed home for both prior elections.
These patterns are particularly stark in places like Kansas and North Carolina.
Among voters who turned out in 2022 and 2024, registered Democrats lead registered Republicans by 2 points in Kansas. This balloons to 14 points among voters who turned out in just one of those elections and 26 points among voters who turned out in neither. In North Carolina, the Democratic advantage is 14 points among the highest propensity voters and 25 points among the lowest.
While the highest propensity voters cast most of the ballots, lower propensity voters are still a meaningful share of the electorate and could be a decisive group in tight contests. Across the 25 states analyzed, about 6% of ballots have been cast by voters who did not turn out in either of the past two general elections and another 15% came from voters who participated in just one.
There’s still time for Republicans. A large share of high-propensity Republican voters has yet to cast their ballots. But not all of those voters will necessarily turn out, and the data so far suggest Republicans will need to be more reliant on strong election day turnout than they were in 2024.
The latest from the campaign trail in the final sprint to Election Day
We’re in the last stretch before Election Day as candidates across the country squeeze in as many campaign stops as possible to make their final pitch.
President Donald Trump is returning to South Carolina to champion Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who is effectively in a tie with her Democratic opponent Annie Andrews.
Trump has been traveling near daily in October, mostly to states he won in the 2024 election, as he aims to boost Republican turnout.
Vice President JD Vance again heads to Texas, where Democrats are hoping to snap a 32-year statewide losing streak in the Senate and governor’s races.
Both parties are bringing out their biggest names in the final week before midterms, with former President Barack Obama rallying in Georgia last night.
Today in Georgia, former Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, will be campaigning to mobilize voters in support of Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
