Midterms live updates: Election forecaster shifts 21 races in Democrats’ direction | CNN Politics

Live Updates

Election forecaster shifts 21 races in Democrats’ direction

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Join day two of Omar Jimenez's battleground road trip in Pennsylvania
• Source: CNN
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On the campaign trail today

• Political headwinds: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report, has shifted 21 races in Democrats’ favor — including three Senate races in the South.

• Election integrity: President Donald Trump said he will respect the outcome of the midterm elections, if they are “honest.” The president has repeatedly attacked the integrity of the voting process and used the federal government to try to assert more control over how states oversee their elections.

• Texas in focus: Early voting turnout across Texas is strong so far, but it’s especially high in the most Democratic counties. Trump is making two stops today in the Lone Star State, seeking to bolster Republicans facing tougher-than-expected contests. Democrats are hoping to snap a 32-year statewide losing streak in the Senate and governor’s races.

• Big spenders: This midterm cycle has set a new record for ad spending, according to tracking service AdImpact, with $11.21 billion spent on ads so far.

Updates

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Trump mocks Talarico’s campaign trail absence with meat jokes

President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Port of Corpus Christi on Tuesday in Corpus Christi, Texas.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday mocked Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico’s absence from the campaign trail earlier this month, baselessly suggesting he may have a mental illness and joking that he had been “food poisoned by meat.”

“He’s going around to so many barbecues, it’s probably why — either that or he has a mental illness,” Trump told a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas.

“Missing in action. Now I happen to think he was food poisoned by meat because he can’t stand it,” Trump added.

Returning to the trail two weeks ago, Talarico dismissed the wide-ranging speculation about his absence, saying he had been sidelined by a severe case of the flu. Both his campaign and a mental health center rejected as false a claim circulating in online conservative circles that Talarico was receiving treatment for a stress-induced episode.

Trump has repeatedly mocked Talarico, falsely claiming he is a secret vegan who forces himself to eat meat at campaign barbecues and then vomits backstage.

“You ever see him go to a barbecue and he’s trying to show ‘I love the meat,’” the president said. “Where is he? He’s behind the tent puking.”

Hearing begins in DOJ's attempt to force California to set aside votes from 20,000 people

A federal judge in California is hearing arguments in the Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to set aside votes from 20,000 people it claims could be noncitizens. The hearing comes one day after a federal appeals court rejected DOJ’s attempt to bypass the district court, ruling it did not have jurisdiction yet to hear the case.

DOJ sued California earlier this month over its list of 20,000 voters, alleging that California failed to act when the Trump administration asked the state to set aside the ballots of those voters until their citizenship could be verified. The lawsuit is part of the Trump administration’s escalating efforts to insert the federal government into how states run their elections.

California has responded that the DOJ list on suspected noncitizen voters is based on unreliable data, and that the request would run afoul of state law with voting in the midterm elections already underway.

Judge David Carter, a Bill Clinton appointee, is presiding over Tuesday’s hearing.

Trump suggests oil-rich Venezuela could become 51st state as he stumps in Texas

US President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a midterm campaign rally at Port of Corpus Christi in Corpus Christi, Texas on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Venezuela could “maybe someday soon” become the 51st US state, as he pitched an influx of Venezuelan oil to American voters weary of higher gas prices.

“It will become a prosperous country, and who knows, maybe someday soon, it will become a prosperous 51st state. That’s possible,” Trump told a crowd in Corpus Christi, Texas.

“Let’s make it the 51st state, and instead of a president, we’ll have an election for a governor,” Trump added. “How about that? You know, they have a lot of oil,” he said.

Earlier Tuesday, Trump announced that Venezuela had sent, “as a gift,” a million barrels of oil to the United States. CNN has reached out to the White House.

“See that little ship out there?” Trump told the Corpus Christi crowd. “It’s got 1 million barrels of oil on it from Venezuela, and we’re celebrating the greatest oil victory in history. To the victor belong the spoils, right?” he added.

Trump touted the US operation in Venezuela earlier this year, arguing that it increased the American oil supply. “This historic win gives us control over the massive part, the biggest part of the world’s oil supply. We have more oil than any other country, even any countries combined, and it’ll be refined right here in Texas, including right here in Corpus Christi,” Trump said.

The president’s push comes as GOP candidates contend with high fuel costs heading into Election Day. A gallon of unleaded gas costs 40% more than it did a year ago, and diesel is running nearly 75% higher.

Trump again boasts US is "making a fortune" off the war in Iran

President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Port of Corpus Christi on Tuesday, in Corpus Christi, Texas.

President Donald Trump again boasted that the US is “making a fortune” off the war in Iran, even as he acknowledged he would face blowback for the remark as Americans deal with high gas prices.

“They’ll say, ‘Oh, you don’t think, you don’t think about the person,’” Trump said during a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, before arguing that gas prices would soon “come down.”

The president’s defense of the monthslong war came as the average national gas price sat at $4.26 per gallon Tuesday. Trump has repeatedly brushed off the rising prices, arguing that it’s worth ensuring that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Polling, however, shows that voter frustration over the cost of living could cost Republicans control of Congress.

“I knew that oil would go up,” Trump said Tuesday. “I actually thought it would go up two or three times higher, and I was still willing to do it.”

John Sununu: "I love my brother, but he's totally wrong”

Republican Senate Candidate John Sununu speaks during a Hampton Falls GOP and Seacoast Republicans apple picking event at Lou and Mary Gargiulo's home on October 3, in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee John E. Sununu says his brother, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, is “totally wrong” when he told CNN in an interview that if voters thought they were voting for Chris, John would be “up 30 points.”

“No, look, I love my brother, but but he’s totally wrong,” John Sununu told Fox News in an interview. “This is a race that no one thought would be in play a year ago, and it’s a toss-up race right now, and that’s just testament to our campaign of going town to town, person to person, focusing on the right issues, bringing down the cost of living, affordability, job creation, and the fact that I’m not a career politician.”

The four-term former Gov. Chris Sununu, John’s younger brother, told CNN that he has not been asked to join John on the campaign trail.

“I’m not involved at all in my brother’s campaign,” he said. “We all believe in service, but you got to do it on your own. You got to stand on your own two feet. And I’m incredibly supportive, I’d do anything he asked me to, but he knows and I know that you’ve got to run your own race.”

These states have seen the most ad spending in the midterms

Total ad spending for the midterm elections is already past $11.3 billion, and there are still seven days to go. Some states are seeing the biggest advertising spend of the cycle.

Here’s how they rank, according to AdImpact data:

• California is first at $1.2 billion total. The nation’s most populous state always ranks near the top for ad spending, but this year was exceptional. Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer spent more than $210 million on ads for an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid. And a pair of contentious California ballot initiatives – for partisan redistricting last year, and a state wealth tax this year – have drawn more than $230 million combined.

• Texas ranks second, with just over $1 billion worth of advertising. More than half of that staggering total has gone toward the blockbuster US Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, including the bruising, protracted GOP primary between Paxton and defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. A hotly contested gubernatorial race between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa has also seen more than $138 million in ad spending.

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Record-breaking ad spending is pouring into states Trump won

In the final weeks of the midterm elections, hundreds of millions of dollars are targeting key races in states that Trump won comfortably in 2024. CNN's David Wright takes a look at where the money is moving in the closing sprint.

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• Third is Ohio at $845 million — and climbing — as it is hosting the second-most expensive US Senate race this cycle between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and GOP incumbent Sen. Jon Husted. That race has already seen more than $505 million in ad spending. The state’s competitive gubernatorial race between GOP nominee Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton accounts for $210 million.

• Michigan ranks fourth, at north of $720 million to date. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing in one of the most competitive US Senate races in the country. There are also multiple competitive House races.

• Georgia is fifth with just under $550 milllon. Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff is in a high-profile Senate race against Republican Mike Collins, alongside a gubernatorial race fueled by a billionaire self-funding Republican nominee Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Husted jokes about Trump’s focus on his body: ‘I don’t let him down’

US Senator from Ohio Jon Husted speaks to a group of supporters at Price Hill Chili on October 24, in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio joked Tuesday about President Donald Trump’s persistent commentary about his physique.

Campaigning in Clyde, Ohio, the Republican noted Trump is returning to the state Wednesday for a rally in Chillicothe.

“Don’t worry. I was in the weight room this morning working out,” said Husted, a former college football player. “I don’t let him down.”

Husted was flanked by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Both laughed at Husted’s remarks.

Trump has made several comments praising Husted’s body, including his backside, while stumping for him in one of the country’s most competitive Senate races. At a rally last week in North Carolina, Trump said that Husted’s “ass — it’s like a pile of muscle.”

These midterm races all shifted toward Democrats, according to election forecaster report

Democratic candidate for US Senate Roy Cooper votes on the first day of early voting at Chavis Park in Raleigh, North Carolina on October 15.

Twenty-one midterm races shifted today in favor of Democrats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report from the University Of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Here’s what changed:

Senate

  • In Florida’s special election, the race between Republican Sen. Ashley Moody and Democratic state. Rep. Angie Nixon moved from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
  • North Carolina’s open-seat race, between Republican Michael Whatley and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, shifted from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
  • In South Carolina, where Republican Sen. Darline Graham is facing off against Democrat Annie Andrews, the rating changed from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs speaks during her "Arizona First" rally at El Rio Center on November 1, 2025 in Tucson, Arizona.

Governor

  • Arizona’s race between Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and Republican US Rep. Andy Biggs shifted from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
  • Vermont’s gubernatorial race changed from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the contest between Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democrat Amanda Janoo.

House

Races that shifted from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up”

  • Alabama’s 2nd District between incumbent Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures and Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques.
  • Colorado’s 5th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Crank and Democrat Jessica Killin.
  • Kentucky’s 6th District, where Republican former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado is running against Democrat Zach Dembo for the open seat.
  • Missouri’s 2nd District between incumbent Republican Rep. Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman.
  • Montana’s 1st District, where Republican Aaron Flint is running against Democrat Sam Forstag for the open seat.
  • Pennsylvania’s 1st District between incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie.
  • Virginia’s 5th District between incumbent Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democratic former Rep. Tom Perriello.
Alaska independent US House candidate Bill Hill looks up during preparations ahead of a debate against Republican US Rep. Nick Begich on October 14, in Anchorage, Alaska.

Races that shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican”

  • Alaska at-large between incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich and Independent Bill Hill.
  • Arizona’s 2nd District between incumbent Republican Rep. Eli Crane and Democrat Jonathan Nez.
  • Florida’s 13th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Democrat Leela Gray.
  • Ohio’s 15th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Carey and Democrat Don Leonard.
  • Ohio’s 10th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Turner and Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker.

Races that shifted from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic”

  • Oregon’s 5th District between incumbent Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum and Republican Patti Adair.
  • Virginia’s 7th District between incumbent Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman and Republican Douglas Ollivant.

Races that shifted from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic”

  • Pennsylvania’s 8th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton.
  • Texas’ 15th District between incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Bobby Pulido.

Democrats in deep-red Iowa are looking to send a message to Trump this year

Iowa is a red state that voted for President Donald Trump all three times, but Democrats see the statewide races there as up for grabs this cycle. CNN’s John King reports from the Hawkeye State:

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Does Red Iowa have the blues?

CNN's John King kicked off his five-day, five-state final week midterm tour in deep-red Iowa, where Democrats see an opening to flip key races. Voters are weighing the war, high diesel prices and whether to send a message to Washington.

1:03 • Source: CNN
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Recalling Stacey Abrams, Georgia gubernatorial candidate urges residents to boost turnout

Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms speaks at a campaign event on October 17, in Marietta, Georgia.

Making calls from a campaign field office in Atlanta today, Democratic candidate for governor Keisha Lance Bottoms made a unique request of Georgians: She wants every supporter to win over just 21 voters per precinct.

The number is not random: Democrat Stacey Abrams lost the race for Georgia governor to Republican Brian Kemp in 2018 by just under 55,000 votes, a heartbreaking defeat for Democrats optimistic about making inroads in the state.

That amounts to an average of 21 votes per precinct that would have tipped the election in Abrams’ favor, Bottoms has said. Now Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, is drawing on Abrams’ defeat to encourage turnout she hopes will help her avoid a similar outcome.

“What we don’t want to have happen is have this record, extraordinary turnout, and then we get overtaken at the end and on Election Day,” Bottoms said to supporters and reporters at the field office.

Bottoms also revealed at the event that Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York, was donating another $2.5 million to her campaign.

Bottoms is running against Republican billionaire businessman Rick Jackson, who poured over $100 million of his own money into just the Republican primary.

Graham gets boost in South Carolina from pro-data center super PAC

Sen. Darline Graham during a campaign rally at the T. Ed Garrison Arena on October 21, in Pendleton, South Carolina.

Building The Future, a new super PAC aligned with the data center industry, is giving Republican Sen. Darline Graham a boost in the final stretch of her competitive Senate race.

According to AdImpact data, the group – which formed in late August – has spent nearly $2 million on pro-Graham advertising, running two TV spots.

Both tout Graham’s personal values and lay out the partisan stakes in the battle for control of the Senate.

“Now she’s in the Senate, making sure Washington liberals never get their hands on South Carolina,” one ad says. “She’s cutting taxes and saving you money. Darline Graham, always delivering for South Carolina,” says the other.

Building The Future is an offshoot of Leading The Future, another super PAC, and its affiliated nonprofit, Build American AI, established by tech industry heavyweights last year to promote the development of artificial intelligence. The new group was formed to confront the growing popular backlash to data centers, critical infrastructure for powering AI.

Graham has been more circumspect about the issue than her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, inclined to frame the subject in national security terms. Andrews, by contrast, has leaned into fierce opposition to the industry, calling for a moratorium on new data center construction as her allies attack Graham as “Data Center Darline.”

Building The Future has not yet disclosed any information about its donors, but AdImpact data shows that in addition to spending about $2 million on the Senate race in South Carolina, the group has also reserved six-figures’ worth of ad time for another unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Kansas, where the Republican incumbent, Sen. Roger Marshall, is also under pressure.

Trump will rally in Texas as forecasters shift races to Democrats. Here's the latest

President Donald Trump is holding a double feature in Texas today, rallying in Corpus Christi first before heading to Lubbock.

The blitz from the president and other top Republicans comes as two election forecasting reports signaled some races shifting in Democrats’ favor with just a week left until Election Day.

Here’s what to know to get up to speed:

  • The races for governor in Kansas and Nebraska have shifted slightly toward Democrats, according to the latest Cook Political Report.
  • Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report from the University Of Virginia’s Center for Politics, also shifted 21 midterm races in Democrats’ favor today. This includes three Senate ratings in North Carolina, Florida and South Carolina — though it’s still an uphill climb for Democrats in the latter two states.
  • The last time President Donald Trump made a trip to Corpus Christi, he had just given the order to begin a sustained military campaign against Iran. Now, exactly eight months later, Trump arrives back to the Texas port city with the deeply unpopular conflict dragging down his approval rating and the fortunes of GOP candidates around the country.
  • Just before arriving in Corpus Christi, Trump said on Truth Social that the United States will receive 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil in Texas, calling it “just the first shipment of BILLIONS of Barrels to come.”
  • Earlier, Trump said he will respect the outcome of the midterm elections — if they are “honest.” The president has repeatedly attacked the integrity of US elections despite widespread fraud being rare. House Speaker Mike Johnson committed to a peaceful transfer of power in Congress if Democrats win the majority. Still, he said he believes Republicans are “going to hold the majority, and I believe President Trump is a big part of that.
  • Money has been pouring into races across the country. Projected ad spending in the final week of the midterms shows money being spent in red states with competitive Senate races, according to data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. This includes tens of millions of dollars in Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Michigan.
  • Elon Musk also recently gave $5 million to the reelection campaign of Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, according to new campaign finance filings in the state. Musk has donated at least $276 million into the fight over control of Congress, most of it in Texas.

CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Patrick Svitek, Katherine Koretski, Alejandra Jaramillo and David Wright contributed reporting.

Vance calls Mike Rogers a "servant" for Michigan, not the Trump administration

Republican candidate for US Senate Mike Rodgers speaks at a midterm campaign rally at CHI Aviation in Howell, Michigan on Tuesday.

Vice President JD Vance cast Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers as a “servant for the people of Michigan,” not the Trump administration, as he made an appeal to independent voters in the state on Tuesday.

Rogers, a former congressman who has occasionally distanced himself from President Donald Trump, is in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed that could determine control of the Senate.

Speaking to a crowd in Howell, Michigan, Vance called Trump “a powerful personality” who is “willing to pick a fight.”

“What Mike has done in this campaign, sometimes he has said things that have been independent of the administration,” Vance said of Rogers.

He continued: “I don’t want in Mike Rogers a servant for the administration. I want in Mike Rogers a servant for the people of Michigan. That’s his job.”

Vance’s closing message in the battleground state framed Rogers as a fighter and his opponent as a Democratic loyalist.

“Who is the candidate in this race who is willing to fight for Michigan regardless of political party, and who is bending the knee to the national Democrats?” Vance asked.

“If you cannot stand independent of Chuck Schumer, then you cannot stand for Michigan in the United States Senate,” he said, referring to the Democratic Senate leader.

El-Sayed has previously said he wouldn’t support Schumer for majority leader if Democrats win the Senate.

Election forecaster shifts 21 midterm races in Democrats' favor

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report from the University Of Virginia’s Center for Politics, shifted 21 midterm races in Democrats’ favor today.

With just a week to go until the election, the shifts reflect the battle that Republicans face in holding onto their majorities in the House and the Senate amid historical headwinds.

Three Senate ratings — in North Carolina, Florida and South Carolina — all shifted in Democrats’ favor, though it’s still an uphill climb in the latter two states.

In North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running for the state’s open Senate seat, the rating changed to “Likely Democratic” while Florida and South Carolina’s Senate races moved to “Likely Republican” and “Leans Republican,” respectively.

In the House, the election forecaster also shifted 16 contests in favor of the Democratic candidates, including races in Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania and Virginia that went from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” status.

Two governor races, in Arizona and Vermont, were also shifted toward Democrats, according to the report.

Republicans under pressure in red states for the Senate

Projected ad spending in the final week of the midterms shows money pouring into red states with competitive Senate races, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact.

The Senate race in Ohio, which just crossed $500 million in total ad spending, including the primaries, will see more than $40 million in just the final week. This is only the third non-presidential election to clear the half-billion dollar mark, punctuating a historically expensive election.

Another is this year’s blockbuster Senate race in Texas, which is projected to see the fifth most ad spending in the final week, but which ranks first among all midterm races in ad spending from the start of 2025 through Election Day, totaling more than $555 million.

Heated races in Iowa and Michigan are both projected to see nearly $30 million in advertising over the final week. And the unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Kansas has shot up this list, ranking fourth in ad spending in the final week at $27 million and climbing, as last minute ad money piles in.

In the battle for the House, both parties are spending big in Florida, North Carolina and Texas seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans during mid-decade redistricting.

But Republicans are also on defense in some of the costliest races, including a pair of Michigan contests each set to see more than $10 million worth of advertising in the final week, in addition to battlegrounds in New York and Pennsylvania.

Vance calls Michigan Senate race a "proxy fight" over America's sovereignty

US Vice President JD Vance speaks at a midterm campaign rally at CHI Aviation in Howell, Michigan on Tuesday. Vance is speaking in support of Rodgers, who is running against Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed for Michigan's US Senate seat.

Vice President JD Vance on Tuesday called Michigan’s Senate race “the most important election in the United States of America,” accusing Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed of seeking to undermine the nation’s values.

“More than any other state, it highlights the clash of competing visions that the far left has decided to run with against commonsense American values,” Vance said during a rally in Michigan. “The battle for your Senate seat is a proxy fight over whether America can truly be sovereign if it belongs to men who feel contempt and disdain and hatred for the United States of America.”

The vice president’s remarks represented the latest in a series of Republican attacks on El-Sayed questioning his allegiances and suggesting that he was anti-American — some of which have centered on him being Muslim.

Vance also drew a direct line between Michigan Senate race and recent riots in France that he described as “hordes of masked rioters, many from distant lands, taking over historic city centers,” speculating without evidence that El-Sayed would support similar upheaval in US cities.

“Are they really so hard to imagine here in the United States of America? And I guarantee you, if those rioters were burning down New York or Detroit, the Hasan Pikers and the El-Sayeds would be right there leading them and cheering them on,” Vance said, later adding that El-Sayed wanted to bring similar unrest “to the shores” of the US.

Someone bet nearly $500,000 on Texas Gov. Abbott to win reelection

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks to the media after casting his ballot in the midterm elections outside Travis County Community Center on October 19 in Del Valle, Texas. Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will face off with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in a tight race for governor.

Someone recently bet nearly $500,000 that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will win reelection, according to data from the prediction platform Kalshi.

Analysts say this is the largest bet on a single candidate during the 2026 midterms so far.

Abbott, a Republican who has served as Texas governor since 2015, is locked in a competitive race against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

Data analyzed by Betting Intelligence shows someone placed the trade Monday, buying $499,800 of shares predicting Abbott will win, giving him a 70% chance of victory. That means the bet will pay about $714,000 if Abbott prevails.

“This is the largest single-race bet we’ve seen for the midterms on the major platforms,” said Dan Zimmermann, chief intelligence officer at Betting Intelligence. “They’re going out on a limb. Yes, it’s likely. But it’s not a near-certain outcome.”

The Kalshi data showed this large transaction came from an institutional trader, likely a hedge fund or investment firm, Zimmerman said. Large financial institutions use prediction platforms as a way to hedge risk based on potential election outcomes.

The identity of the trader is not publicly known. The Kalshi market for the Texas gubernatorial race has seen more than $7.2 million in trading volume as of Tuesday.

CNN has asked Abbott’s campaign for comment.

There has already been more than $1.4 billion in trading on midterm-related markets on Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction sites. The prediction frenzy has scrambled US political culture, with campaign staffers and donors obsessing over the odds. Federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading related to the midterms.

CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, including elections. CNN editorial employees aren’t permitted to use prediction markets.

Trump touts 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil as "first shipment of BILLIONS"

US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the press about a ship delivering crude oil from Venezuela to Texas today before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. President Trump is traveling to Texas for campaign rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock ahead of next week's midterm elections.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the United States will receive 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil in Texas, calling it “just the first shipment of BILLIONS of Barrels to come.”

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the oil was arriving in Corpus Christi “as a result of our Highly Successful Military Operation, followed by the Biggest Oil Deal in the History of the World.”

“Thanks to our renewed relationship with Venezuela, which has turned out to be a truly excellent one, the Oil is being provided to the United States at NO cost to the American Taxpayer,” the president wrote.

Just a week ahead of the midterm elections, Trump also claimed relief at the pump, writing that “Gasoline and Diesel Prices will soon come plummeting down — JUST WATCH!” He has made similar claims before, which have often not borne out or only provided limited and temporary relief.

Earlier Tuesday, just before departing for Texas, Trump confirmed he would visit the tanker carrying the crude, saying it would be the third stop after two campaign rallies in the state. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is joining him.

“I believe we are, yeah,” Trump said. “We took over Venezuela very successfully and they sent me, as a gift, a boatload of a million barrels of oil, and I’m giving that to the United States of America.”

Gubernatorial races in Kansas and Nebraska shift toward Democrats in latest Cook Report

A person picks up a 'I Voted' sticker during first day of early voting in Overland Park, Kansas City, on October 17.

The races for governor in Kansas and Nebraska have shifted slightly toward Democrats, according to the latest Cook Political Report.

Republicans are hoping to flip the governorship in Kansas next week, but the race moved from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up” as recent polling shows the race virtually tied, the Cook Report said.

Republicans have nominated Trump-backed state Senate President Ty Masterson. He’s served for more than 20 years in the Kansas Legislature and has campaigned on cutting taxes and addressing crime. The Democratic nominee is state Sen. Cindy Holscher, who has criticized the Democratic party establishment and is running with a populist style.

In Nebraska, the race moved from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” There are four candidates on the ballot, and the crowded race plus incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Pillen’s unpopularity is making the race uncertain and more competitive, according to the Cook Report.

The state voted for Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2024.

Speaker Johnson says there will be a peaceful transfer of power if Democrats win majority

US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks to reporters outside of his office at the US Capitol on September 16 in Washington, DC.

House Speaker Mike Johnson committed to a peaceful transfer of power in Congress if Democrats win the majority in next week’s midterms.

“Of course we’ll have a peaceful transfer of power, but it will not be transferring because we are going to keep the majority, and I’m going to be the Speaker of the House, and I will keep steady hands at the wheel,” Johnson said during an event alongside Rep. Mike Lawler in Orangeburg, New York on Tuesday.

The race in New York’s 17th Congressional District between incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of this year’s cycle. Johnson emphasized it’s going to be close. “So, we want to thank everybody from New York 17, reminding you that every single vote is going to count,” he said.

Asked if he believes Republicans are distancing themselves from President Donald Trump, Johnson said, “I don’t think it’s happening,” adding that he spoke to Trump yesterday.

“His rallies have record numbers, record crowds. It feels like 2024 to us,” Johnson said. “I believe we’re going to hold the majority, and I believe President Trump is a big part of that.