Midterm election updates: Cook Political Report shifts two races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans | CNN Politics

Cook Political Report shifts two races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans

still_23088249_0_still.jpg
Ohio governor’s race roiled by new viral video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother
4:13 • Source: CNN
still_23088249_0_still.jpg
4:13

Our live coverage has ended

Get the latest midterms campaign developments here.

Updates

(44)

Key takeaways from Tuesday

• North Carolina stop: President Donald Trump spoke at a rally for Michael Whatley, another Republican in a tight Senate race. Trump, who has been campaigning overwhelmingly in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, said he’s “working like a dog” to defend the Republican majority come November.

• Forecast shifts: The Cook Political Report, an election forecasting agency, made changes to its ratings for three Senate races, shifting two —South Carolina and Mississippi — toward Democrats and one, Minnesota, closer to Republicans.

• Heckled in Ohio: Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP nominee for governor, was heckled at a campaign event by a person appearing to cite a viral video featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. His campaign is planning a $4 million ad campaign featuring the video.

Trump rallies in NC for another GOP candidate. Here's the latest from the campaign trail

President Donald Trump, who has been campaigning overwhelmingly in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, spoke tonight at a rally in Greenville for Michael Whatley, the Republican candidate running for Senate in North Carolina.

Trump announced investments in the state, and said he’s “working like a dog” to defend the Republican majority this November.

Protesters interrupted his speech at different times, which has happened at several of his rallies in red states.

Today was the deadline for monthly reports to the FEC from national party committees and some outside groups.

Here’s what we learned about campaign financing:

  • The Republican National Committee raised $18.6 million in September and entered the critical final full month of the election with $97.3 million in cash on hand, according to its monthly FEC filing.
  • The Democratic National Committee, which has struggled to raise money for the entire election cycle, entered the sprint to Election Day with a fraction of the cash reserves held by its Republican counterpart, new filings show. The DNC reported $19.2 million remaining in its accounts — but the committee also has $15 million in debt tied to a loan from last year.
  • MAGA Inc., the super PAC affiliated with Trump, spent more than $3 million on advertising on Meta’s platforms over the last week, according to the company’s ad data — a significant escalation of its digital activity.

And here’s what else happened on the campaign trail:

  • Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for Ohio governor, was heckled at a campaign event by a person appearing to cite a viral video featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.
Screenshot 2026-10-20 181046.png
Protester interrupts Ramaswamy Event
0:28 • Source: WSYX
Screenshot 2026-10-20 181046.png
0:28 • WSYX
23088816 - fulton concern CLN.00_00_35_20.Still002.jpg
Growing concern in Georgia about federal intervention in midterms

After the FBI raided an election hub in Georgia in January, there is now increasing concern that the Trump administration could interfere with the midterm election. CNN’s Gabe Cohen talks with Fulton County Chairman Robb Pitts.

1:57 • Source: CNN
23088816 - fulton concern CLN.00_00_35_20.Still002.jpg
1:57

CNN’s Patrick Svitek, Tori B. Powell, Dianne Gallagher, David Wright and Fredreka Schouten contributed reporting.

Trump says he's "working like a dog" to defend Republican majority this November

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s “working like a dog” to defend the Republican majority this November with campaign speeches in different states leading up to Election Day.

Trump campaigned for Republican candidates in North Carolina, including former RNC chair and US senate candidate Michael Whatley. Trump called Whatley’s opponent — former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper “a super liberal sociopath,” emphasizing his record on crime, including releasing prisoners during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“These are real rough ones, and he released them into our society, and he’s going to become your senator, and it’s crazy,” Trump said, seeming to suggest that he believes Cooper will likely win the race.

This month, the Senate Leadership Fund put a pause on their spending in North Carolina, but Trump indicated he would keep campaigning in the state, as soon as next week.

Trump acknowledged some trepidation about the result, given he selected Whatley to run.

He also announced more investments in the state, saying “the Department of War will be investing $1.5 billion dollars to produce cutting-edge semiconductor chips right here in North Carolina.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick came on stage to announce that mining company Sibelco is going to manufacture quartz, or the “foundation of semiconductors,” in North Carolina.

Several protesters interrupted Trump’s speech at different times, which has become a regular occurrence on the campaign trail lately. Trump called them “losers,” and later, after another interruption, Trump said, “They’re so sad — but don’t hurt them.”

Trump says he'll direct DOJ to settle remaining Camp Lejeune claims if GOP wins midterms

President Donald Trump said he would direct the Department of Justice to settle remaining claims related to water contamination at Camp Lejeune if Republicans win the midterms this November at a rally in North Carolina, where the United States Marine Corps base is located.

“If we win the House and the Senate, I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as possible and get it off the books and get it finished. It’s gone on for years,” he continued.

Trump claimed there wouldn’t be money to pay the settlement claims if Republicans don’t win.

Shortly after, Democratic North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein posted on X, “Real leaders fight for the people, not for power. To condition doing the right thing by sick North Carolinians on who wins the election is foul.”

Trump’s remarks come after Attorney General Todd Blanche got into a tense exchange on X with Laura Loomer after the right-wing activist accused a Justice Department official overseeing settlements related to Camp LeJeune of making lowball offers to veterans.

Blanche defended the department’s approach, stressing that multiple offices are involved in decision-making. “We love our veterans and we want to get these cases right. Find a different obsession other than going after one of DOJ’s best fighters,” he said.

DNC fundraising improves in September, but the RNC has five times the available cash

The Democratic National Committee, which has struggled to raise money for the entire election cycle, entered October and the sprint to Election Day with a fraction of the cash reserves held by its Republican counterpart, new filings show.

By contrast, as CNN reported earlier Tuesday, the Republican National Committee had more than $97.2 million remaining in its bank accounts, freeing it to send tens of millions to help boost GOP House and Senate candidates in the midterms.

The DNC raised about $15.6 million in September, an improvement over the $11.4 million it collected the previous month.

After FBI seized election materials in Fulton, concern in Georgia grows for midterms

There’s growing concern in Georgia about federal intervention in the upcoming midterm elections. In January, the FBI served a warrant at an elections office in Fulton County, Georgia, as it probed alleged voter fraud in the 2020 election.

CNN’s Gabe Cohen is in Fulton with County Chairman Robb Pitts to discuss the impacts:

23088816 - fulton concern CLN.00_00_35_20.Still002.jpg
Growing concern in Georgia about federal intervention in midterms

After the FBI raided an election hub in Georgia in January, there is now increasing concern that the Trump administration could interfere with the midterm election. CNN’s Gabe Cohen talks with Fulton County Chairman Robb Pitts.

1:57 • Source: CNN
23088816 - fulton concern CLN.00_00_35_20.Still002.jpg
1:57

Ramaswamy to launch ad campaign featuring Democratic opponent's estranged mom

The campaign of Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for Ohio governor, is launching a $4 million ad campaign featuring a viral video of his Democratic opponent’s estranged mom telling Ohioans to reject her.

The incendiary spot will run on TV and streaming platforms, according to Ramaswamy campaign spokesperson Connie Luck. Axios first reported the news.

“It is an ad from our campaign,” Ramaswamy told reporters after a town hall Tuesday evening in the Columbus area, clearing up the mystery surrounding where the video came from.

Ramaswamy’s Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, and her brother condemned the video earlier in the day. Ramaswamy’s campaign initially declined to say whether it was involved in the ad but said it was a message voters deserved to hear.

Acton has said she has not seen her mother since she was about 12 years old, when her mother’s husband abused her and was facing criminal charges.

MAGA Inc., the super PAC affiliated with Trump, has stepped up its digital ad blitz

MAGA Inc., the super PAC affiliated with President Donald Trump, spent more than $3 million on advertising on Meta’s platforms over the last week, according to the company’s ad data.

It’s a significant escalation of the super PAC’s digital activity, more than it spent over the previous 90 days. And over just the last week – with attention on the midterms intensifying – MAGA Inc. was the largest advertiser on the company’s platforms, including Facebook and Instagram.

About 21.5% of the spending targeted viewers in Texas, about 10.8% to viewers in Ohio, about 9.1% to viewers in Iowa, and about 5.7% to viewers in Michigan – all states hosting highly competitive US Senate races. Dozens of other smaller media markets were also targeted.

Sitting on hundreds of millions in campaign cash, MAGA Inc. has emerged as a key player in the closing stretch of the midterms. The group has directed millions to the blockbuster Senate race in Texas, while also being linked to two new super PACs targeting other key House and Senate races. So far, most of that spending has been dedicated to costly TV advertising.

Today is the deadline for the super PAC to file a monthly report to the FEC, providing further details on its fundraising and spending activity last month, as well as how much cash it had entering October.

RNC reports nearly $100 million in cash on hand entering October

The Republican National Committee raised $18.6 million in September and entered the critical final full month of the election with $97.3 million in cash on hand, according to its monthly FEC filing.

Earlier Tuesday, the RNC announced that it had unloaded over $50 million in recent weeks to help midterm candidates, which was partly detailed in the new report covering fundraising and spending activity last month.

In September, the committee transferred $9.1 million to the National Republican Senatorial Committee in two installments, and $23.4 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee in three installments. It also distributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to two dozen state party committees. The committee reported spending a total of $46.9 million.

Crucially, the RNC’s nearly $100 million in cash on hand at the start of the month meant the committee had ample reserves to boost candidates in the final sprint, even accounting for additional transfers in October toward the $50 million in announced support.

And last week the RNC spent $5 million on a coordinated ad buy with Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Iowa Senate nominee, taking advantage of a recent Supreme Court ruling loosening restrictions on coordination and spending, which has made the national party committee’s cash stockpile all the more valuable.

CNN’s Patrick Svitek contributed to this report

Rep. Don Davis discusses uphill reelection battle he faces ahead of midterms

In North Carolina’s 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces an uphill reelection battle after state lawmakers redrew the congressional map to create a more GOP-friendly seat.

He joins CNN’s Jake Tapper ahead of the midterm elections to discuss what’s motivating voters in his district, including access to healthcare, Social Security and affordability.

thumb_23088119_245280.161_thumb.jpg
North Carolina Democrat on the top issues motivating voters in his district
1:20 • Source: CNN
thumb_23088119_245280.161_thumb.jpg
1:20

Monthly reports shed light on party finances ahead of the midterms

Today is the deadline for monthly reports to the FEC from national party committees and some outside groups, covering fundraising and spending activity in the month of September.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that it had raised $26.3 million in September, and raised $50.5 million for the third quarter as a whole, including July and August.

The committee, which focuses on House races, also said it had $55.7 million in cash on hand entering the final weeks of the midterms.

Its Republican counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, announced a September haul of $28.5 million, narrowly outraising the Democrats.

And for the quarter, the NRCC said it had raised about $50 million, entering October with $61 million in cash on hand.

Both committees are poised to play key roles in the final stretch of the campaign, spending millions boosting battleground candidates. A Supreme Court ruling earlier this year loosened restrictions on how party committees can spend on behalf of candidates, driving an increase in coordinated ad buying funded by committees like the DCCC and NRCC.

Democratic nominee in SC touts GOP support, including from ex-lawmaker Graham donated to

Democratic candidate for US Senate Annie Andrews speaks during her campaign rally at Joshua Baptist Church in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Saturday, October 17.

Annie Andrews, the Democratic candidate in the increasingly competitive race for Senate in South Carolina, today touted endorsements she said she received from Republicans — including from a former lawmaker that her GOP rival, Sen. Darline Graham, previously donated to.

As a private citizen, Graham donated a small sum to Shealy’s campaign, according to state campaign finance records. News of the contribution made waves after Graham was appointed to fill her late brother’s seat in the Senate, as Shealy notably joined with several other female state senators in 2023 to vote against a 6-week abortion ban.

Shealy said in a social media post that Graham’s donation was unrelated to her vote on the abortion ban.

“Darline’s contribution reflected a friendship and respect for Katrina’s public service, particularly her work on disability issues, not some litmus test on abortion,” she said.

In addition to endorsing Andrews, Shealy also crossed the aisle earlier this year to introduce South Carolina’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jermaine Johnson.

CNN’s Patrick Svitek, Sydney Kashiwagi, Carma Hassan and Devon M. Sayers contributed reporting.

Ramaswamy heckled at town hall over video with Democratic opponent's mom

Screenshot 2026-10-20 181046.png
Protester interrupts Ramaswamy Event
0:28 • Source: WSYX
Screenshot 2026-10-20 181046.png
0:28 • WSYX

Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for Ohio governor, was heckled at a campaign event this evening by a person appearing to cite a viral video featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.

Within seconds of Ramaswamy taking the stage at a Columbus-area town hall, an audience member rose and began yelling at him, referring to “Amy Acton’s mother” and the abuse the candidate says she suffered from her mother’s husband at a young age.

The viral video being referenced, which surfaced online Monday night, shows Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar and urging Ohioans to reject her.

Acton and her brother have denounced the video, while Ramaswamy’s campaign has declined to say whether it had any involvement in it.

Trump deflects when asked about endorsing Vance for 2028 presidency

A day after Vice President JD Vance said he believed Donald Trump would endorse him if he ran in 2028, the president said the two haven’t discussed it.

23088058 - trump vance 2028 vrtc.00_00_04_24.Still001.png
Trump deflects when asked about endorsing Vance for 2028

A day after Vice President JD Vance said he believed Donald Trump would endorse him if he ran in 2028, the president said the two haven't discussed it.

0:30 • Source: CNN
23088058 - trump vance 2028 vrtc.00_00_04_24.Still001.png
0:30

Midterms latest: Trump campaigns in North Carolina as billionaires boost ad spends

President Donald Trump is continuing to rally Republicans with a stop in North Carolina tonight, hoping to boost voter turnout and support for GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley.

And while some candidates, like Whatley, are embracing the president’s involvement in their campaign, others appear less eager.

John Sununu, the Senate Republican nominee in New Hampshire, has distanced himself from Trump in a new TV ad — even though he has the president’s endorsement.

Meanwhile, this year’s midterm elections are poised to break records for ad spending, with more than $11 billion projected by Election Day. A big driver of those skyrocketing costs is billionaire megadonors on both sides of the aisle, fueling the advertising blitz.

If you’re just joining us, here’s the latest:

Money pouring in

Shifting races: The Cook Political Report, an election forecasting agency, made changes to its ratings for three Senate races. Cook moved the Senate race in South Carolina from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” The Senate race in Mississippi was also moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” reflecting deteriorating GOP prospects there. Cook also shifted the Senate race in Minnesota from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Voter turnout in North Carolina: Just over 9% of North Carolina’s registered voters have already cast a ballot in the 2026 midterm election, according to the state’s Board of Elections. A total of 733,299 early in-person and absentee ballots have been cast.

Slight Democratic edge in Ohio: A new CNN Poll of Polls average, including four recent surveys of likely voters, finds Democrat Sherrod Brown with a narrow advantage over Republican Jon Husted, 49% to 44%.

Michigan Senate race: Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed laid out their competing visions for how to bring jobs and manufacturing back to the state, as they work to make their closing pitch to voters ahead of Election Day at a Detroit Economic Club candidate forum.

rogers al seyed.jpg
Michigan Senate candidates vie for Black voter support in final weeks

Black voters on both sides of the aisle say that Michigan Senate candidates should not take their vote for granted in this pivotal election. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports.

CNN Shorts:

2:01 • Source: CNN
rogers al seyed.jpg
2:01

CNN’s Kit Maher, David Wright, Patrick Svitek, Katherine Koretski, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Elise Hammond and Dianne Gallagher contributed to this report.

Rep. Ocasio-Cortez says suspicious letter sent to her district office

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Tuesday her district office in the Bronx received a suspicious letter that is being investigated by the New York Police Department and federal law enforcement agencies, including the FBI.

More than two dozen lawmakers across the country, both Democrats and Republicans, have reported their offices receiving suspicious letters in the mail in recent weeks. Several have reported receiving a white powdery substance, which has prompted evacuations and law enforcement response.

There have been no reported injuries in any of the incidents, and in at least six instances, the substances in the letters were found to be non-hazardous.

Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, described the incident as an attempt to intimidate elected officials ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

CNN previously reported the US Postal Inspection Service, FBI and Capitol Police are investigating the letters sent to congressional offices.

Michigan Senate candidates vie for Black voter support in final weeks

Black voters on both sides of the aisle say Michigan Senate candidates should not take their vote for granted in this pivotal election.

CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports:

rogers al seyed.jpg
Michigan Senate candidates vie for Black voter support in final weeks

Black voters on both sides of the aisle say that Michigan Senate candidates should not take their vote for granted in this pivotal election. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports.

CNN Shorts:

2:01 • Source: CNN
rogers al seyed.jpg
2:01

Cook Political Report shifts two Senate races toward Democrats, one toward Republicans

CNN aircheck 10.20.26.jpg
Top forecaster shifts two Senate races in the deep South toward Democrats
2:47 • Source: CNN
CNN aircheck 10.20.26.jpg
2:47

The Cook Political Report, an election forecasting agency, made changes to its ratings for three Senate races today, shifting two to favor Democrats and one to favor Republicans.

Cook moved the Senate race in South Carolina from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” as GOP nominee Darline Graham — replacing her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the ticket — has struggled to galvanize Republicans in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews.

The Senate race in Mississippi was also moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” reflecting deteriorating GOP prospects there, as GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is under pressure from Democrat Scott Colom.

Colom recently scored a hit against Hyde-Smith, hammering her suggestion to “pick another protein” amid high beef prices and spawning a new slogan, “pick another Senator.” And today, a leading Democratic super PAC announced plans to start spending in the state.

But against those moves, Cook also shifted the Senate race in Minnesota from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” as the party’s nominee, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, has caused some jitters, with one state Democratic official telling CNN the race was “far too close for comfort.” And Republican Michelle Tafoya outraised Flanagan in the third quarter.

New Hampshire Democrats gear up for Harris after multiple high-profile visits

Democratic US Senate candidate for New Hampshire Chris Pappas greets supporters in Nashua, New Hampshire, on October 17.

With two weeks to go until Election Day, New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas has already welcomed a running list of high-profile guests to the state. But his campaign is gearing up for one of the most important visits yet.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris will return to the Granite State on Saturday, hoping to give the representative an eleventh-hour boost before voters head to the polls.

The former vice president endorsed Pappas over the summer and also threw support behind Democrat Cinde Warmington for governor on Tuesday, Warmington announced in a post on X.

So far, Pappas has been joined by prominent Democrats like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, and he has secured an endorsement from former President Barack Obama.

In New Hampshire — considered a primarily purple state, with a GOP governor and a Republican majority in the state legislature — the Senate seat will be critical in Democrats’ quest to gain control of Congress.

But Pappas, who has been a representative for New Hampshire for seven years, is confident in his ability to keep the seat held by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen blue.

Responding to a new ad from his Republican opponent John E. Sununu Tuesday, where Sununu highlighted breaking from Trump, Pappas wrote, “We can do so much better than a failed former senator who feigns concern two weeks before the election.”

Boosted by Supreme Court ruling, RNC deploys $50 million in midterms

The Republican National Committee announced Tuesday it has unloaded over $50 million to help midterm candidates, looking to take advantage of a recent Supreme Court ruling that loosened certain political spending.

In June, the court struck down limits on the amount of money that political parties could spend in coordination with campaigns. That made the RNC’s massive war chest — $126 million at the end of August — more valuable to candidates than before.

Of the $50 million that the RNC has deployed in recent weeks, $44 million has gone to the party’s Senate campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and its House campaign organization, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The $44 million was almost evenly divided between the two committees.

The RNC is also spending $5 million on a coordinated ad buy with Ashley Hinson, the party’s nominee for Senate in Iowa.

The RNC announced the $50 million outlay on the same day it was required to report its September finances to the Federal Election Commission.

Correction: An earlier version of this post included the wrong state in which Ashley Hinson is running for a Senate seat. It is Iowa.