Video shows sea drone attacking Russian tanker. Here's why it could be a game changer
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What we covered here
Ukraine hit one of Russia’s largest oil tankers with a sea drone late Friday, just hours after attacking a naval base in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Kyiv has promised more attacks on Russian shipping and a key Crimean bridge. Ukraine’s maritime drones, which have proven difficult to defend, could be central to that emerging campaign.
On the ground Saturday, Russia claims to have captured a village in northeastern Ukraine. Moscow’s troops also hit multiple regions with missiles, including advanced Kinzhals, according to Ukrainian officials.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is hosting peace talks in Jeddah. The US, other Western nations and some developing countries are attending. Russia was not invited.
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We’ve wrapped up our live coverage for the day. You can read more about Russia’s war in Ukraine here, or scroll through the posts below.
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Ukraine may be using drones to amp up its counteroffensive. Here are some of the headlines you should know
From CNN staff
Ukraine seems intent on using a new generation of powerful maritime drones against Russian ships — both merchant and naval — in the Black Sea, opening up a new front in the 18-month war.
In the space of 24 hours, two Russian vessels — a naval landing ship and a fuel tanker — were hit in the eastern Black Sea by the sea drones. Both sustained extensive damage but remained afloat.
A spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry vowed the Ukrainian attacks “won’t be left without a response,” saying the fuel tanker assault threatened civilian lives and an environmental disaster. There are conflicting reports about the ship’s cargo and crew.
Here are some of today’s top headlines:
Drones play a central role: Friday’s Black Sea attacks are just the latest salvo in a Ukrainian military campaign employing unmanned vehicles to attack far-away Russian targets by air and by sea. The Ukrainian State Hydrological Service has issued a coastal warning to shipping services using several Russian ports, and Ukraine has effectively served notice that it will continue attacks using maritime drones. It all comes after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal and launched repeated attacks on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure.
Russian attacks on Ukraine: The Russian Ministry of Defense says its forces have taken a village in northeastern Ukraine — an area that has seen a growing concentration of Russian troops. Ukraine says Russia fired its advanced Kinzhal missiles into Ukrainian airspace on Saturday, and shelling killed a man in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, according to the Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne. A Russian guided aerial bomb also struck a blood transfusion center in the northeastern Kharkiv region, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukrainian attacks on Russia: Ukrainian shelling killed two civilians and wounded nine others in various parts of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine Saturday, according to Denis Pushilin, the Russia-installed head of occupied areas in the region.
Saudi Arabia peace talks: The Ukraine war peace talks taking place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, today are less of a peace summit and more of a summit about peace, according to analysis by CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh. Rather than Russia and Ukraine sitting down to hammer out the enduring terms of a settlement, Ukraine appears to be consolidating its allies and trying to drag additional developing countries to its corner. Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will aim to ensure a stable oil market and stronger trade relations throughout the Gulf.
Official visit: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Russian rear positions inside Ukraine, according to a statement and video released by his ministry Saturday. Shoigu met with commanders and gave out bravery medals to servicemen.
Clearing the battlefield: The Ukrainian military says it is stepping up the training and deployment of engineering battalions capable of dealing with the density of Russian minefields and other defensive fortifications.
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UN condemns Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, says damaged grain could feed 66 million people
From CNN's Mariya Knight and Richard Roth
People walk by a Black Sea Danube shipping company building damaged in a Russian drone strike in Izmail, Odesa region, Ukraine, on August 2.
According to Brown, “the thousands of tonnes of grains that were damaged would have been enough to feed approximately 66 million people for a day.”
The humanitarian coordinator said Russia’s decision to pull out of the Black Sea grain deal and its repeated attacks on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure “are causing insurmountable damage to the agricultural sector in Ukraine and may further accentuate hunger for the world’s poorest people.”
Damage at a grain port facility after a Russian drone strike in the Odesa region, Ukraine, on August 2.
Prosecutor General's Office via Telegram/Handout/Reuters
Key context: In the August 2 attack Brown referred to, overnight drone strikes in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region targeted the Danube River port of Izmail, causing damage to some of its structures, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said.
Russia terminated the deal that allowed for the safe passage of Ukrainian food exports on July 17. In the time since, Moscow has unleashed a flurry of attacks on grain supplies in key Ukrainian cities, and the Danube River became a key target.
The Danube ports — which lie on Ukraine’s border with Romania — are Kyiv’s main way to ship millions of tons of Ukrainian grain to the rest of the world.
CNN’s Olga Voitovych and Xiaofei Xu contributed reporting to this post.
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Russian bomb hits blood transfusion center in Kharkiv region, Zelensky says
From CNN's Mariya Knight
A Russian guided aerial bomb struck a blood transfusion center in the country’s northeastern Kharkiv region Saturday, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He said on Telegram that there are dead and wounded victims as a result of the attack, but did not provide any specific numbers.
Zelensky said the blood transfusion center is located in the Kupyansk community, where Russia has recently amassed troops on the eastern front line. A fire broke out at the center following the attack, he added.
CNN cannot independently verify reports about attacks on the front lines in Ukraine.
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Zelensky: Russia targets southern and western Ukraine with missiles, including advanced Kinzhals
From CNN's Mariya Knight
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at a press conference during a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12.
Kacper Pempel/Reuters/File
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the southern city of Zaporizhzhia and the western Khmelnytskyi region were attacked by Russian Kinzhal and Kalibr missiles on Saturday.
The country’s air defense intercepted at least some of the missiles, the president said in his nightly address. Motor Sich, a Ukrainian company that produces aviation engines and gas turbine units appears to have been the target in Zaporizhzhia, he added.
Zelensky didn’t provide any further information about the attacks.
More on the missiles: Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military have touted the Kinzhal, or Kh-47, as an example of Russia’s modernized missile arsenal, claiming that its hypersonic speed makes it extremely difficult to intercept.
Ukraine has acknowledged that the missiles are tough to defend against, though it has knocked at least one out of the sky using a US Patriot defense battery.
The Ukrainian Air Force warned residents earlier Saturday that Russia had fired Kinzhals into the country’s airspace and that the Khmelnytskyi region appeared to be the target. Officials in the region reported explosions, but scant further details were immediately available about the attack.
Taking the fight to Russia: In his nightly speech, Zelensky reiterated a current Ukrainian narrative: Kyiv is working “to bring the war back to where it came from.”
Ukraine hit one of Russia’s largest oil tankers with a sea drone and attacked a naval base in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in the span of 24 hours on Friday. Kyiv has promised more attacks on Russian shipping and a key Crimean bridge.
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Zelensky says his team has taken an active role in this weekend's peace talks in Saudi Arabia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address Saturday that his team is taking an active part in the Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
According to Zelensky, 42 countries are represented at the event, and “everyone is united by the priority of international law.”
Zelensky said his delegation is working on “consolidation of the world” for the sake of restoring a “just peace.”
The talks — which include representatives from the US — are aimed at developing shared principles to end the war and discussing the kind of security assistance Kyiv will need to deter Russia from ever attacking Ukraine again, US officials have said.
Russia is not present at the summit, and the talks appear mostly aimed at shaping strategies and winning developing nations over to Ukraine’s side, rather than fostering any major breakthroughs between Moscow and Kyiv at this time.
Read more about the talks, and the tempered expectations surrounding them, here.
CNN’s Mariya Knight contributed to this report.
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Russia says Ukrainian attack on oil tanker "won’t be left without a response"
From CNN's Mariya Knight
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova speaks during a news conference in Moscow on April 4.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters/File
The Ukrainian attack on a Russian oil tanker late Friday “won’t be left without a response,” according to a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry.
Zakharova said Kyiv carried out the attack “using new terrorist methods,” and called for Western countries and international organizations to condemn the assault.
The attack, she said, “threatened not only the death of its crew, but also carried the threat of a large-scale environmental disaster.”
(Russia’s Federal Agency for Marine and River Transport has said no casualties were reported and that the ship was not carrying oil when attacked. Ukrainian officials, however, said some crew members were injured and that the tanker was carrying fuel for the Russian military.)
Key context: Friday’s attack targeted one of Russia’s biggest oil tankers with a maritime drone, the latest salvo in an emerging Ukrainian military campaign employing unmanned vehicles to attack far-away Russian targets by air and by sea.
Maritime drones are proving very difficult to defend and can travel hundreds of miles to their target. Ukrainian officials have vowed to carry out more attacks on Black Sea targets.
Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), has said any attacks on Russian ships or the Crimean bridge are “an absolutely logical and effective step” and “completely legal” because they occur in Ukraine’s territorial waters.
Zakharova said Saturday that she doubted the attack was “completely legal” and called Maliuk’s statement “inhumane.” She argued the attack was “aimed at killing unarmed civilians.”
CNN has not been able to independently verify the claims from either side about specifics of the attack, including the fate of the crew and whether its cargo was for military purposes.
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Ukrainian shelling kills 2 people and wounds others in occupied Donetsk, Russia-backed leader says
From CNN's Mariya Knight
Ukrainian shelling killed two civilians and wounded nine others in various areas of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine Saturday, according to Denis Pushilin, the Russia-installed head of occupied areas in the region.
The shelling killed two women — one in Donetsk city and one to the northeast in the city of Horlivka, Pushilin said on Telegram.
Nine other people were wounded across Horlivka and the smaller towns of Yasynuvata and Novopetrykivka, according to the Russia-backed official. The shelling also damaged 10 residential buildings and an infrastructure facility across the different areas, Pushilin said.
The latest round of shelling was among 48 attacks by Ukraine in the last 24 hours, he added.
Ukraine has not immediately commented on the reported attack, and CNN cannot independently verify reports from the front lines.
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Civilian killed in Russian shelling on Sumy region, Ukrainian broadcaster reports
From CNN's Yulia Kesaieva
Shelling in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region killed a man on Saturday afternoon, according to Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne.
The man, who was in his 60s, was killed in his yard in the small village of Novoslobidska, community head Olha Harkavenko told Suspilne.
Sumy, in northeast Ukraine, borders Russia and suffers from daily Russian shelling. In July, the Ukrainian government established a “five-kilometer danger zone” — a border area where civilians are strongly recommended to evacuate.
It has also created a list of mandatory evacuation areas for children in frontline areas, which expanded again Saturday.
Russia has not immediately commented on the reported attack, and CNN cannot independently verify reports from the front lines.
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Russia fired Kinzhal missiles into Ukraine, air force says
The missiles were launched from Russia’s Tambov region and were heading toward the Khmelnytskyi region in western Ukraine, according to the air force.
Explosions could be heard in the area, officials in Khmelnytskyi said, but there were not immediately further details on the attack.
The air force also reported a missile launch from Belarus.
About Kinzhal missiles: Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military have touted the Kinzhal, or Kh-47, as an example of Russia’s modernized missile arsenal, claiming that its hypersonic speed makes it extremely difficult to intercept.
Ukraine has acknowledged that the missiles are tough to defend against, though it has knocked at least one out of the sky using a US Patriot defense battery.
Ukrainian intelligence estimated in May that Russia has only a few dozen Kinzhal missiles in its arsenal – a claim which couldn’t be independently verified.
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Ukraine promises more attacks on Russian shipping and Crimea bridge
From CNN's Tim Lister and Kostan Nechyporenko
One of Russia’s biggest oil tankers was struck by a maritime drone.
Obtained by CNN
Ukraine has served notice that it intends to continue attacks using maritime drones, following two strikes using such weapons within 24 hours.
The head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) Vasyl Maliuk said Saturday that any explosions that happen to Russian ships or the Crimean bridge are “an absolutely logical and effective step. Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal.”
Maliuk said that if the Russians wanted such explosions to stop “they have the only option to do so — to leave the territorial waters of Ukraine and our land.”
Some context: The Russian-flagged tanker Sig was damaged by a maritime drone overnight near the bridge connecting the annexed Crimean peninsula to mainland Russia. According to the Russian agency for Marine and River Transport, the Sig was hit shortly before midnight Friday local time. It was not carrying a cargo of oil at the time.
The hit on the oil tanker was carried out in a joint operation with the Navy, a Ukraine Security Service (SBU) source told CNN.
Officials issue more mandatory evacuations for children in eastern Ukraine
From CNN's Yulia Kesaieva in Kyiv
Ukrainian officials are ordering mandatory evacuations for children in nine additional frontline settlements “due to the difficult security situation and hostile shelling.”
The government ministry that manages Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine said in a statement Saturday that officials have voted unanimously in favor of the new compulsory evacuations.
They affect a series of towns and villages that dot the eastern Donetsk region: Yampil, Zarichne, Torske, Orihuvatka, Nykonorivka, Malynivka, Tykhonivka, Vasiutynske and Rai-Oleksandrivka.
All are close to the front lines in an area that has seen attacks of growing intensity by Russian forces. The order applies to 130 children, the ministry said.
The ministry also reiterated warnings for civilians to evacuate from a “five-kilometer (about 3-mile) danger zone” in the Sumy region of northern Ukraine. Currently, 1,718 people, including 228 children, have been evacuated from the area bordering Russia.
Ukrainian authorities began issuing compulsory evacuation orders in March 2023 and have added settlements as conditions on the front line change.
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Russia says it has captured a village in northeastern Ukraine
From CNN's Tim Lister and Denis Lapin
The Russian Ministry of Defense says its forces have taken a village in northeastern Ukraine — an area that has seen a growing concentration of Russian forces.
The ministry said Moscow’s troops now control the settlement of Novoselivske, which lies on the border of the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and has been on the front lines since a Ukrainian push recaptured much of Kharkiv last September.
Russia said it had also improved its position along the front line near two villages nearby.
The defense ministry published video of the Russian advance in the area, which has been geolocated by CNN as occurring in Novoselivske.
On Friday, a Russian military blogger said Moscow’s forces were on offense in a forested area near the village, and that Russian assault detachments broke through Ukrainian defensive lines north of the settlement on August 3.
Ukrainian officials have not commented on the Russian claim, but in recent days have spoken of renewed efforts by Russia to break through Ukrainian lines in the area.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Friday that Russian forces have intensified their attacks in the direction of Kupyansk, Lyman and Svatove — three cities in northeastern Ukraine, where Novoselivske is located.
Russian military bloggers have also claimed that Russian forces are edging closer to the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces have been defending the river’s west bank around Kupyansk.
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Analysis: Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman wants more than just peace from Ukraine summit
From CNN's Nic Robertson
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia takes his seat ahead of a working lunch at the G20 Summit on November 15, 2022, in Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Leon Neal/Getty Images/FILE
Saudi Arabia’s ancient Red Sea port city Jeddah, stewing in the steamy heat of the world’s hottest summer on record, is not the obvious pick to cool the world’s fiercest conflict, currently raging in Ukraine.
Yet, the desert kingdom’s king-in-waiting, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — MBS for short — thinks he can help. Last fall he had a role in the release of Western mercenaries captured by Russian forces while fighting in Ukraine. Now he is hosting a summit to discuss peace in the country.
Ukrainian officials say the venue is a boon for them “that completely destroys the narrative of Russia” that Ukraine is only supported by “countries of the collective West.” They expect as many as 40 nations to be represented, including the US and India.
Saudi Arabia has not overtly taken a side in the war. More significantly, MBS has leverage. Like the roads that led to Rome in its day, Saudi Arabia is increasingly at the confluence of competing global interests.
What MBS wants most is a stable oil market and stronger trade relations throughout the Gulf. Disagreements alone are dangerous for the flow of oil. All-out war — between oil-rich, nuclear-armed Russia and Ukraine — could be catastrophic.
If he can tame that tiger, he can better plan how to deliver his otherworldly and insanely expensive visions of a future Saudi Arabia, diversifying from oil yet employing the country’s huge young population.
His ambition is what drives him every day. In his ideal world, Saudi Arabia would be a dominant geopolitical player.
Ukraine issues warning to ships using Russian Black Sea ports
From CNN's Kostan Nechyporenko and Tim Lister
In the wake of attacks by Ukrainian sea drones on two Russian ships in the Black Sea within 24 hours, the Ukrainian State Hydrological Service has issued a coastal warning to shipping services using several Russian ports.
It issued a coastal warning naming the ports of Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhyk, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman as within a “War risk area.”
A Russian naval ship sitting off Novorossiysk was struck by a sea drone early Friday, and then one of the country’s biggest oil tankers was attacked by another of the unpiloted watercraft just before midnight, according to a Ukraine Security Service source.
A Ukrainian advantage: Kyiv’s maritime drones are proving very difficult to defend against and can travel hundreds of miles to their target. In using them, Ukraine is opening up a new front — and may be trying to boost morale amid slow progress in its counteroffensive.
Danilov said August was particularly successful for Ukrainian “hunters.”
“The next step is to expand the scale, range of combat operations, and the level and severity of Russian losses,” he added.
The potential disruption to Russian shipping from sea drones was further demonstrated Saturday when the appointed governor of Russian-occupied Sevastopol issued a warning to maritime traffic that one had been spotted by the Russian navy.
“The Navy has detected a surface drone, which is currently continuing its movement. All necessary measures are being taken to destroy it,” Mikhail Razvozhaev announced. Russia-backed officials limited maritime travel in some areas as a result.
More background: The Ukrainian maritime drone operations appear to have escalated since Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain initiative last month.
On July 20, the Ukrainian defense ministry responded to Russia’s move by saying “the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone, primarily for Russian ships and ships sailing in the Black Sea towards Russian seaports and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. Responsibility for all risks lies entirely with the Russian leadership.”
Russia, meanwhile, has stepped up its air assault on Ukrainian ports and grain infrastructure, particularly in the city of Odesa.
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Analysis: Ukraine opens up new frontier by unleashing powerful maritime drones
From CNN's Tim Lister
Ukraine seems intent on using a new generation of powerful maritime drones against Russian ships — both merchant and naval — in the Black Sea, opening up a new front in the 18-month war.
In the space of 24 hours, two Russian vessels — a naval landing ship and a fuel tanker — were hit in the eastern Black Sea by maritime drones. Both sustained extensive damage but remained afloat.
The fast, semi-submersible drones are proving very difficult to defend against. They are easily launched at sea and at least some variants are capable of traveling several hundred miles to their targets. If well-targeted, the 450-kilogram explosive payload is capable of crippling large vessels.
Ukrainian agencies, especially the Security Service (SBU), have been notably vocal about the use of these drones, warning that Russian infrastructure and shipping in the Black Sea is at risk. Previously, Ukrainian security forces have been reticent to speak much about such weapons.
Why now? Their use serves multiple purposes.
It represents the exploitation of new technology, much of it engineered in Ukraine, and one where the explosive charge is greater than in previous models.
At a time when Ukrainian forces are struggling to take ground, the attacks in the Black Sea are a boost to morale and a way to divide the attention of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
When Russia quit the deal last month, they warned that ships heading to Ukrainian ports would be considered military targets. The Ukrainian defense ministry responded by saying that all shipping using Russian-held ports may be considered the same.
Two weeks later, that capability is on display.
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Ukraine is training more engineering units to deal with dense Russian minefields
From CNN's Kostan Nechyporenko
The Ukrainian military says it is stepping up the training and deployment of engineering battalions capable of dealing with the density of Russian minefields and other defensive fortifications.
The commander of the military’s Support Forces, Brig. Gen. Dmytro Hereha, said in a briefing Saturday that “the enemy has set up a multi-echelon system of engineering barriers in the occupied territories, consisting of several strips of 10 to 40 km each, and their density is quite high.”
Anti-tank minefields, anti-tank ditches, concrete pyramids (the so-called “dragon’s teeth”) and wire obstacles were among the impediments, he said, and “the enemy insidiously uses mines, including in such a way that they cannot be removed.”
“To overcome such obstacles, a significant number of engineering and sapper units are needed,” Hereha said, but the quantity of special engineering equipment “is not enough (now) for such a number of obstacles.”
He said five engineer battalions have been formed and about 200 personnel had been trained abroad. A further 150 were receiving training outside Ukraine.
“The engineering units received up to 100 units of special equipment from partner countries as material and technical assistance to make passages in explosive and non-explosive barriers,” Hereha said.
The density of minefields along the front lines in the south has been a significant impediment for Ukrainian fighters over the past two months. A senior Ukrainian official said last week that in some areas, there are as many as three mines per square meter.
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Ukraine hits one of Russia's biggest oil tankers with sea drone after attack on naval base
From CNN's Victoria Butenko and Josh Pennington
A still from file footage of Russia's U.S.-sanctioned SIG tanker hit in drone attack near Crimea Bridge.
Yoruk Isik/Reuters
One of Russia’s biggest oil tankers was struck by a maritime drone, the latest salvo in a Ukrainian military campaign employing unmanned vehicles to attack far-away Russian targets by air and by sea.
The Russian-flagged ship, the Sig, was hit by a drone carrying 450 kilograms (992 pounds) of TNT shortly before midnight, according to a Ukraine Security Service source. The strike created a hole in the vessel’s engine room at the waterline on the starboard side, forcing the 11-strong crew to fight the water intake, Russian authorities said. The flooding eventually stopped.
Russia’s Federal Agency for Marine and River Transport said no casualties were reported and that the Sig was not carrying oil when the drone crashed into ship. Ukrainian officials, however, said some crew were injured and that the tanker was carrying fuel for the Russian military.
CNN has not been able to independently verify the claims.
The strike on the Sig came just hours after Ukrainian sea drones targeted a major naval base in Novorossiysk, a coastal city on the Black Sea that is home to Russia’s largest port by volume of cargo handled. An amphibious Russian landing ship was hit, leaving it tilting badly and sitting very low in the water.
Ukrainian has also stepped up its attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles in recent weeks, hitting targets well within Russian territory, including in Moscow.
Russia releases video of defense minister visiting troops inside Ukraine
From CNN's Tim Lister and Uliana Pavlova
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet in New Delhi, India, on April 28, 2023.
Adnan Abidi/Reuters
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Russian rear positions inside Ukraine, according to a statement and video released by his ministry Saturday.
In a video distributed by the Russian government, Shoigu is seen traveling by helicopter to a base near the Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk.
Shoigu met with commanders and gave out bravery medals to servicemen.
According to the Telegram channel of the ministry, Shoigu asked if German-made Leopard tanks had appeared in the group’s area of responsibility, to which the group commander, Andrei Mordichev, replied jokingly: “No, not yet; we are not lucky (with that).”
“Our guys are beating them hard over there, so maybe they won’t get to you yet,” Shoigu responded.
Shoigu has been frequently criticized by the boss of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, for his perceived lack of support for frontline troops.
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Analysis: Summit in Saudi Arabia is a chance for Ukraine to win friends
From CNN's Nick Paton Walsh
The proposed Saudi Arabia peace talks are less of a peace summit and more of a summit about peace. This isn’t Russia and Ukraine sitting down to hammer out the enduring terms of a settlement. It is, instead, Ukraine circling the wagons around its allies and trying to drag additional developing countries to its corner.
Ukraine is banking on a significant change on the front lines – progress in its counteroffensive — before entertaining the idea of diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains he wants all of Ukraine restored to its 2013 borders — before Russia began its occupation by annexing Crimea. It’s unlikely he’ll achieve that militarily this year, or next. But he can seek to frame Russia’s invasion as a strategic defeat by breaking the land corridor along the Azov Sea, between Crimea and Russia’s mainland.
The “Global South” — broadly used to describe developing countries in parts of Africa, Latin America, Asia and elsewhere in the world — will get to hear of Russia’s atrocities firsthand. Some of the countries have been close to the Kremlin. Kyiv and its allies will want to erode any sense of Moscow remaining a power in a multipolar world. India’s attendance is key in amplifying their opposition.
The Saudi hosts will also be messaging tacitly toward one of their allies: China. While Beijing has limited its support of Russia, it also won’t want to back a loser.
The summit will aim to solidify what sort of peace Ukraine can live with. It’s no easy task. But make no mistake: With winter drawing near, US elections looming and NATO’s military support getting expended on the battlefield, word of peace talks will grow.
This is a bid to shape those before they even become a realistic possibility.