To lose one general during a war that’s going badly might be seen as unfortunate; to lose two within 24 hours looks careless. But that is what has happened to the Russian command in southern Ukraine – and both cases illustrate further deficiencies and dissent among Russia’s military leadership.
General 1: Early Tuesday, a Ukrainian missile slammed into a hotel in the coastal town of Berdyansk. One of many reported Russian casualties was Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov, the deputy commander of the Southern Military District and a key figure in Russia’s defense of occupied areas of southern Ukraine. He is thought to have been the most senior among the roughly 10 Russian generals killed in the campaign in Ukraine to date.
It appears to have been no secret that the 58th Combined Arms Army unit had made the Dune hotel its headquarters – but Tsokov had nevertheless moved in.
The 58th is a critical component in defending front lines in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukrainian forces are attempting a breakthrough in their counteroffensive.
Then it got worse for the Russians.
General 2: Late Wednesday, a four-minute audio message emerged from Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the 58th unit’s commander, in which he railed against what he called the treachery of Russia’s military leadership and inadequacies causing mass casualties among his men.
His message asserted major shortcomings in Russian defenses, which the Ukrainians are clearly trying to worsen with a recalibrated approach that stresses long-range fires against Russian rear positions.
Russian military bloggers have suggested that both Tsokov and Popov were capable soldiers who inspired loyalty among their men.
Losing commanders who inspire loyalty is not only careless. It’s potentially hazardous.
And it’s not as though the travails of the 58th are isolated examples. The Wagner mutiny at the end of June called into question the effectiveness and allegiance of several high-ranking figures, several of whom have not been seen since.
General 3: Gen. Oleg Surovikin, the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces — who used to lead Russian forces in Ukraine — hasn’t been seen in public since the Wagner rebellion unfolded. Amid intense speculation about his status, the Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov said Wednesday that Surovikin was “resting” and not available – a curious place to be in the middle of a war that’s not going well.
Read the full analysis here.