What we covered here
• A flurry of economic data released Tuesday after a blackout during the government shutdown paints a confusing picture of the US economy.
• September wholesale inflation rose by 0.3%, keeping the annual level at 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Retail sales rose 0.2% in September, but after factoring in the 0.3% increase in prices that month, spending was actually down 0.1%.
• Consumer confidence for November fell to its lowest level since April as Americans expressed concern about what the future holds for their jobs, cost of living and the economy at large.
Our live coverage has ended. For more analysis about the US economy, read here.
Dow rises by 550 points as latest data signals more chance of another rate cut
Wall Street continued to waver Tuesday after a slew of economic data was released following the end of the government shutdown.
The Dow rose by around 550 points, or 1.19%, in the early afternoon session. The S&P 500 rose by 0.72% and the Nasdaq pushed higher by 0.41%.
On balance, traders focused on any sign that the latest economic news would boost the chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve when policymakers meet in a couple of weeks.
Some Fed officials have in recent days telegraphed their intention to trim rates at the next meeting, invigorating markets. Traders are currently pricing in a chance of more than 80% that the central bank will ease off.
But the tech sector still continued to struggle Tuesday, with AI darling Nvidia falling by around 3% on news that Meta was mulling purchasing chips from Alphabet.
September retail sales and PPI data landed several weeks late. October and November remain "TBD"
Data for September retail sales and wholesale inflation landed Tuesday, several weeks delayed by the recent US government shutdown.
But just when – or even if – the following months’ retail sales and Producer Price Index reports will be released remains TBD.
The federal statistical agencies are working their way through an unprecedented economic data backlog after the lengthy lapse in appropriations stymied efforts to collect, analyze and release reports for a month and a half.
As it stands now, several crucial economic reports for the month of October – notably the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index – won’t be published in their original form. Instead, partial data will be released alongside the November reports.
As of Tuesday midday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had yet to provide an update as to whether and how the October PPI will be released as well as a rescheduled date for the November report.
The Census Bureau still has a “TBD” pasted by the October release date for retail sales.
After stripping out costly energy and food costs, underlying wholesale inflation eased in September
When economists and policymakers analyze inflation data, they often look to “core” indexes that strip out the categories of food and energy, which tend to be more volatile.
In the September Producer Price Index, that underlying trend looked fairly tame: Core PPI rose just 0.1% for the month, which brought the annual rate to 2.6%, the lowest since July 2024. This is better than the 0.3% monthly gain and 2.7% annual rate economists were expecting for core, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
PPI doesn’t translate directly to the inflation consumers see; however, sharp-rising goods prices – specifically in the areas of gasoline, food and electricity – could be foretelling that those key household purchases could get even pricier than they already are.
Consumer confidence falls to lowest in seven months as concerns grow about the economy
America’s economic mood is souring as worries about the labor market mount.
The Conference Board’s latest survey of American consumers, released Tuesday, showed that consumer confidence declined sharply this month to a reading of 88.7, the lowest level since April, when President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs.
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist, said in a release. The government shutdown ended earlier this month, so consumer confidence could rebound in December.
The survey also showed growing pessimism among respondents about job availability and income prospects in the next six months.
“Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings,” Peterson said.
There have been high-profile announcements of layoffs in recent weeks, but that doesn’t immediately translate into higher unemployment, which was at a low 4.4% rate in September, according to the latest Labor Department data.
The latest inflation data shows some businesses are absorbing tariff costs
Tuesday’s PPI data indicated that some firms are shielding their customers from the brunt of the steep and blunt tariffs on imported goods, wrote Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He noted the trade services category, which tends to be quite volatile, measures profit margins for wholesalers and retailers. So, economists have been watching that category closely as a potential indication for how much businesses might be absorbing some of the tariff costs versus passing them along to consumers.
Trade services in September dipped 0.2%, following a 1.7% drop in August, PPI data showed.
“But the picture differs markedly by sector, with auto retailers accepting substantially lower margins, while most other retailers are passing on all the rise in acquisition prices to consumers,” Tombs wrote.
For consumers, September PPI could mean better news if they’re in the market for sneakers or sports equipment, less so if they’re wanting to buy a new computer or TV.
In addition to auto dealers, the industries showing some of the biggest hits to their margins (and potentially lower cost increases for the end consumer) included retailers of sporting goods, clothing, shoes and jewelry as well as wholesalers of machinery, paper and plastics, PPI data shows.
Industries with the largest increases in margins (indicating higher costs are potentially being passed on to consumers) were retailers of TVs, video equipment, computers, furniture and flooring – categories where the US is heavily reliant on imports.
Pending home sales rose in October to highest level in nearly a year
US home sales based on contract signings rose in October to the highest level in nearly a year, in a sign that lower mortgage rates are spurring home-buying activity.
Pending home sales rose 1.9% in October from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, bringing the index to its highest level since November 2024. Sales were up across the country except in the West, with the Midwest seeing a robust 5.3% monthly increase.
“The Midwest shined above other regions due to better affordability, while contract signings retreated in the more expensive West region,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a release. “Days on the market typically lengthen from November through February, providing better negotiating power to buyers during the holiday season.”
It typically takes about a month or two for a home sale to close after an offer was accepted. Mortgage rates have been steadily declining since May, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reaching this year’s lowest point in late October. Mortgage rates have increased slightly since.
US home-price growth slowed in September to its weakest pace since 2023
US home prices increased in September at the weakest pace since mid-2023 as affordability challenges in major markets across the country kept buyers on the sidelines.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index rose 1.3% in September, S&P Global said Tuesday, slightly down from August’s 1.4% gain.
The index has been steadily weakening since 2022, when the Federal Reserve began to hike interest rates to tamp down inflation. The central bank is now lowering borrowing costs, with its benchmark lending rate at its lowest point in three years.
“National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s (Consumer Price Index) running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation,” Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.”
Chicago, New York and Boston saw the strongest price gains in September, while home prices in Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas and Miami declined that month.
“Markets that were pandemic darlings — particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas — are now experiencing outright price declines,” Godec said. “Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
US stocks are mixed after latest economic data
Wall Street started the day on a fairly quiet note as investors digested a batch of long-delayed economic data.
Within minutes of the opening bell the Dow was already up by close to 270 points, or 0.5%. The broader S&P 500 hovered in and out of the red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%.
Stocks are coming off two days of strong gains as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts have boosted markets. However, the S&P 500 and Dow are still on track for their first losing month since April. The Nasdaq is set for its first losing month since March.
Investors were keen to see how aspects of the economy – like retail sales – fared in recent months. Investors have embraced hopes for Fed rate cuts after recent comments from central bank officials suggested a cut could be on the table.
Treasury yields ticker lower Tuesday morning as investors leaned in to bets that the Fed will cut rates in December.
Gold futures rose 1.3%. Gold prices can rise when the Fed is expected to lower rates.
It's pricier goods, not services, driving wholesale inflation higher
Wholesale goods prices leapt 0.9% in September – the sharpest monthly increase for the category in more than 18 months – and were the driver behind the overall September gain in the Producer Price Index, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Tuesday.
Wholesale services prices were flat for the month.
Energy prices, particularly sharp-rising gas prices, accounted for about two-thirds of that goods index monthly increase. Within goods, categories such as meats, residential electric power and motor vehicles also moved higher.
When taking energy out of the equation, as well as food, the underlying goods inflation trend perhaps shows a silver lining:
“Core goods price gains slowed to 0.2% after a couple of larger pops, suggesting tariff pressure might be ebbing,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO, wrote Tuesday in a note to investors.
See PPI's trajectory over the past few years
The delayed data for September’s Producer Price Index showed that core inflation is “moving away from the Fed’s 2% target rate,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, in a note Tuesday.
“There is not no inflation and it is higher than the 2.1% year-on-year rate for core factory goods when the president took office in January,” he wrote.
Headline inflation mostly remained close to expectations.
Does the latest economic data change the calculus for the Fed?
The federal government on Tuesday released key economic reports on inflation and spending, but the numbers likely did little to sway the heated debate among Federal Reserve policymakers.
Central bankers are split on whether they should lower interest rates again at their upcoming meeting in December. They’ve lowered rates twice this year, in September and October, each time by a quarter point, bringing their key interest rate to its lowest level in three years.
One side — mostly members of the Fed’s Board of Governors — argues that the Fed should continue lowering rates to preserve the labor market’s health, while the other camp believes that officials should hold rates steady and get the job done on inflation, considering that it has remained above their 2% target for more than four years.
The latest data didn’t offer any clear indication that the economy urgently needs any relief from the Fed — nor that price pressures are getting out of control. The numbers, delayed by the government shutdown, are also dated.
Retail spending in September was on the weaker side, but it remained in positive territory. And inflation at the wholesale level that month came in mostly as economists had expected.
Retail sales rose in September for fourth-straight month
Sales at US retailers increased in September for the fourth consecutive month, boosted by low unemployment and a buoyant stock market.
Retail sales, which account for about a third of overall spending, rose 0.2% in September, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was a much slower pace than August’s 0.6% gain.
But after factoring in the 0.3% increase in prices that month, according to the Consumer Price Index for September, retail spending edged down 0.1%.
Spending was up across half of categories in September, increasing the most at so-called miscellaneous retailers by a solid 2.9%. Sales also increased at restaurants and bars, rising 0.7%. Meanwhile, sales were down at car dealerships, clothing stores, electronics retailers, department stores and online.
The report was originally due on October 16, but it was delayed because of the government shutdown.
The figures show that consumer spending, the lifeblood of the US economy, was somewhat weak heading into the current quarter, which stretches from October through December. In September, employers added jobs at a robust pace and unemployment ticked up but remained low.
Scott Bessent: "This isn't sport; this is people's lives"
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a biting rebuke of the Federal Reserve, said members of the central bank should quit commenting publicly about the potential direction of rate-setting policy and focus instead on listening to Americans who are struggling with high borrowing rates.
“It’s time for the Fed to move back into the background like it used to, calm things down, work for the American people, [and] set monetary policy on a good course,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday morning. “This isn’t sport; it’s people’s lives. We just need to calm down all these speeches by these bank presidents that are redundant.”
Markets have moved – sometimes dramatically – in recent days after Fed governors and regional bank presidents commented on potential monetary policy decisions.
But Bessent said he believes the Fed should lower rates in December, arguing that the government shutdown hurt the economy.
“We know the economy hasn’t gotten better,” he said. “I’m not even sure what the discussion is here.”
US wholesale inflation heated up in September
US wholesale inflation picked up speed in September, an indication that prices could soon heat up even more for consumers.
The shutdown-delayed Producer Price Index for September showed that prices increased 0.3% on a monthly basis, keeping the annual inflation rate at 2.7%. In August, wholesale prices fell 0.1% on a monthly basis, largely because of compressed profit margins.
August’s annual increase, which was initially estimated at 2.6%, was upwardly revised to 2.7%.
Economists were expecting that producer prices rose 0.3% from August and was 2.6% for the 12 months ended in September.
Why consumer spending seems stronger this year
Black Friday through Christmas will test America’s economic strength. Preliminary reports look good: Early-bird holiday shoppers have been out in strong numbers this year, according to a report earlier this month from Bank of America.
High-income consumers keep spending like they’ve never heard of this affordability crisis people keep talking about.
Middle- and lower-income folks, despite declaring that they’re fed up with their financial situations, are also still spending, in aggregate.
But Americans are all spending more in part because prices are higher. Stubborn inflation, combined with already-high prices, has forced people to shell out more for the holidays, pushing spending numbers up.
It’s one reason a poll published by Fox News this week showed 76% of Americans have a negative view of this economy, up from 67% in July.
Read more here.
An unusual trend in the economy is worrying the Fed
Something in the US economy isn’t adding up, and it’s rattling the people charged with wrangling inflation and keeping the labor market intact.
US companies have sharply slowed their hiring this year, hesitant to invest without knowing the full effects of President Donald Trump’s sweeping economic policies. The economy lost jobs in June and August, and the average pace of job gains for the three months ending in September was only around 62,000, according to the Labor Department.
Yet workers’ productivity, a key driver of economic output, remains high. And gross domestic product, which captures all the goods and services produced in the economy, has stayed robust.
That dichotomy of an expanding economy and a softening labor market presents a conundrum for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, complicating their efforts to determine whether the economy needs cooling or boosting.
A growing economy, boosted by resilient consumers and massive investments in AI, should be spurring hiring, especially now that the Fed has started lowering borrowing costs.
But that hasn’t happened — and there are fears it won’t.
Read more here.
Gas prices are now higher under Trump than under Biden
President Donald Trump and his economic team often respond to concerns about the affordability crisis by touting how much cheaper gasoline is than under his predecessor.
For the vast majority of 2025, this was a legitimate bragging point for the White House.
Until now.
For the first time since the start of Trump’s second term, the discount between this year’s prices and last year’s has effectively disappeared.
The national average for regular gas stood at $3.055 on Tuesday, almost exactly the same as $3.056 a year ago under former President Joe Biden, according to AAA.
In fact, Tuesday breaks an eight-day streak where the national average was up on a year-over-year basis, according to AAA data shared with CNN.
It’s a big shift from earlier this year, when gas was 30, 40 and even 50 cents cheaper than the same point in 2024.
Read more here.
Stock futures dip lower ahead of key economic data
US stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as investors awaited a slew of economic data.
Dow futures fell 34 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.04%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.11%.
Stocks are coming off two days in the green. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 2.69% on Monday, posting its best day since May.
Wall Street is trying to discern whether the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate at its policy meeting in December. Traders on Tuesday morning were pricing in an 81% chance that the Fed cuts rates, according to CME FedWatch.
New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in recent days have suggested they could support a rate cut in December, which helped send stocks higher on Friday and Monday.
Stock investors like lower interest rates because it encourages spending and business activity, boosting corporate profits, while lowering bond yields, making stocks relatively more appealing.
“During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a note. “Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how [the third quarter] ended for the economy.”
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hovered in “extreme fear.”
What to expect from today's inflation numbers
Next up in the pipeline of shutdown-delayed economic reports is the September iteration of the Producer Price Index.
This closely watched report provides a gauge on inflation at the wholesale level: It lays out the average change in the selling prices that producers receive for their goods and services. While PPI doesn’t directly translate to the Consumer Price Index, it’s viewed as a potential bellwether for the prices consumers may see in the months ahead.
That’s where things get interesting with this seemingly old-news report: The trajectory of the pricing trends in Tuesday’s report could provide a window into the price increases consumers are seeing currently and into the near future.
That could be especially salient considering the October CPI has been drastically marred as the shutdown hampered data-collection efforts.
Economists expect that producer prices likely rose 0.3% in September, which would be an acceleration from the preliminary 0.1% drop reported for August, a decline that was driven by compressed profit margins. The annual rate is expected to hold at 2.6%.
