Where things stand
• Ukraine ship attack: Iranian officials ramped up their threats towards Kyiv after an attack by Ukraine on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, killing one and injuring three. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that the incident “cannot go unanswered.”
• Pause in hostilities: President Donald Trump is giving talks with Iran “some space” after diplomatic efforts ramped up in recent days, according to the US ambassador to the United Nations. A US source previously told CNN that military operations are “on a hold.” Regional allies have not reported fresh Iranian attacks during the pause in US airstrikes.
• Maritime chokepoints slow: Commercial ship traffic through both the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz slowed during the weekend, according to reports.
Oil prices down over 6% as fighting pauses in Iran war
Global oil prices fell sharply on Monday after a pause in fighting between the United States and Iran, though traders remain wary.
Brent, the global benchmark, had declined 6.7% to trade at $90 a barrel by 3.37 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, WTI, the US benchmark, had dropped 6.1% to $84 a barrel around the same time.
Strikes between the US and Iran appear to have paused following nearly two weeks of fighting that brought an agreed 60-day ceasefire to an effective collapse.
Despite the halt in hostilities, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend was minimal. Fewer than 10 commodity ships passed through the waterway, according to shipping data tracked by CNN. Around 100 commercial vessels traversed the strait on a typical day before the war.
Oil traders are doubly wary given the threat of attacks on Saudi tankers by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the base of the Red Sea.
In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank analysts said Houthi attacks raise “the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes.”
“So (there’s a) welcome pause from the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles going on,” they wrote.
Stock markets rose on Monday. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.5% while South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both finished 1% higher. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index was up 0.5% by 4.41 a.m. ET.
US futures were pointing higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 both up 0.9% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 1.6%.
Iranian officials ramp up threats towards Ukraine after vessel attacked in Caspian Sea
Iranian officials have ramped up their threats towards Kyiv after this weekend’s attack by Ukraine on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, the route for much of the country’s trade with Russia.
Three crew members were injured and one seafarer killed aboard the ship, Iran’s regional governor Hadi Hagh-Shenas said on Sunday.
The vessel had been carrying a cargo of iron and was sailing from Astrakhan to Anzali, “a safe and reliable corridor for commercial exchanges between the two ports,” Hagh-Shenas said.
Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, also lashed out at Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel’s behest to drag Europe into its war,” wrote on X Sunday. “What the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.”
Some background: Ukraine on Saturday said it had struck ships in the waterway that were transporting military goods from Iran to Russia.
Ukraine had “achieved very good results from long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea,” Zelensky said in a post on X.
“Specifically, these include ships that were involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, as well as a warship,” Zelensky said.
Iranian officials have said that the United States has also recently attacked facilities on the Caspian Sea. The Gilan governorate announced an airstrike on an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy.
UK prime minister holds calls with Gulf leaders as regional tensions mount
Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham spent the past 24 hours speaking with leaders across the Gulf –– using his first round of calls with regional partners to push for closer defense and trade ties and discuss diplomatic efforts to de-escalate conflicts across the Middle East, according to Downing Street.
The prime minister, who has been in office for just over a week, spoke with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, Downing Street said.
In separate calls, he condemned recent Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, thanked the UAE for helping protect British nationals living in the country, and welcomed Emirati efforts to support negotiations between the United States and Iran, according to readouts.
Beyond security, Burnham also told Gulf leaders he wanted to strengthen trade and investment with the region to help drive growth and create jobs across the UK, and he discussed closer defense partnerships with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Image appears to show smoke rising from Saudi refinery after Houthi strike claim
Satellite imagery provided by NASA appears to show a plume of black smoke rising from the vicinity of the Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast and extending for around 200 kilometers (125 miles), after the Iran-backed Houthis claimed to have launched missiles at Saudi infrastructure.
The image was captured by NASA’s NOAA-21 satellite at around 10:30 a.m. UTC on Sunday (1:30 p.m. local time in Jizan). The smoke trail seen in the image extends to nearly 200 kilometers south of the facility according to a CNN analysis. A satellite image from July 24, prior to the Houthi’s claim, showed no such smoke trail.
While the cause of the smoke was not immediately clear, the Houthis in Yemen claimed they carried out attacks against Saudi installations on the Red Sea coast on Saturday after Riyadh targeted the group in strikes a day earlier. The General Directorate of Saudi Civil Defense issued a warning for Jizan province on Saturday but did not confirm any damage.
According to Saudi Aramco, the oil refinery in Jizan is designed to process up to 400,000 barrels per day.
CNN has reached out to Aramco for comment.
Iran appears better positioned than the US for a prolonged conflict, CNN military analyst says
Iran may be better positioned than the United States to sustain a prolonged conflict because it retains a significant stockpile of weapons, while the US is expending high-end precision munitions that could take years to replace, military analyst Cedric Leighton, told CNN.
“The Iranians have a vast supply of missiles and drones and rockets remaining,” said Leighton, a retired US Air Force colonel, estimating Tehran still possesses roughly two-thirds of its original arsenal despite months of US strikes.
Leighton added that US attacks have successfully targeted command-and-control sites, weapons systems and military infrastructure, but have not eliminated Iran’s ability to continue launching attacks.
He cited an estimate that more than 1,400 Patriot interceptors may have been used so far in the war with Iran and warned that if the figure was accurate, the US could be left vulnerable elsewhere while it worked to replenish stocks.
On Friday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine specifically raised concerns about the US munitions stockpile and other potential negative implications of an escalation in the war with Iran at a White House meeting, sources told CNN.
Red Sea shipping slows after Houthi attacks, according to Saudi data
Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait slowed over the weekend after Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil tankers and threatened additional strikes on vessels linked to Saudi ports, according to Saudi shipping data reviewed by Reuters.
The data showed fewer vessels transiting one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints, located between Yemen and Djibouti, as shipping companies reassessed security risks following the attacks.
The slowdown follows a series of escalating Houthi threats and attacks targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The Tehran-backed group last week declared what it called a maritime blockade along the strait, warning shipping companies against loading or unloading cargo at Saudi ports.
Hormuz traffic dips: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – another vital shipping lane at the heart of the US-Iran conflict – has once again dipped, although no new attacks by either the United States or Iran were reported over the weekend.
Fewer than 10 commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, according to shipping data tracked by CNN. On a typical day before the war, more than 100 commercial vessels would pass through the waterway.
Trump giving talks with Iran "some space" as strikes on hold. Where things stand
Strikes between the US and Iran appear to have paused after nearly two weeks of nightly bombing by the American military and Iranian attacks on US allies.
US Central Command has not announced new strikes against Iran in the past three days. It’s not clear if that was because there was no US military action against Iran on those days.
Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said in interviews Sunday that President Donald Trump is giving talks “some space” to develop after diplomatic efforts ramped up over the past few days.
Here’s where things stand:
- Munitions stockpile: Waltz appeared to acknowledge that “a lot of stockpiles are depleted,” though he insisted the US still has “everything that it needs” to continue its military campaign.
- Iranian response: Tehran has sought to paint the pause in hostilities as a victory. One official claimed it signals the US is “experiencing strategic decision-making fatigue.”
- Saudi nuclear deal: Waltz also spoke on Sunday about the deal providing a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia, reiterating that it won’t take effect until the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel.
- War casualties: The Pentagon updated its war casualty database, recording more than 140 additionally wounded and restoring the four soldiers killed due to Iranian strikes earlier this month amid questions about a lack of transparency over the war’s toll.
- Price movements: Oil prices fell over 5% on Sunday amid continued turmoil in the Persian Gulf, while gas prices ticked higher as the Strait of Hormuz’s closure impacts oil trade. Meetings between Omani and Iranian officials over the weekend did not lead to any change in the status of maritime traffic through the waterway, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
- Supreme leader on Hezbollah: Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed the country’s support for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in a letter addressed to its leader, Naim Qassem, and its commanders and fighters. Khamenei described the group as being at the forefront of resistance to Israel and its supporters.
- Ukrainian strike: Tehran also criticized Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Ukraine has said it struck ships transporting military goods from Iran to Russia.
CNN’s Auzinea Bacon, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Betsy Klein, Tim Lister, Aida Karimi and Chris Lau contributed reporting.
What US Ambassador Mike Waltz has said about the Iran war and Saudi nuclear deal
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz spoke to NBC and Fox in interviews published on Sunday about the war in Iran and the US-Saudi nuclear deal. Catch up on what he said:
On Friday, President Donald Trump and his top advisors had talks regarding escalation in Iran, but since then the fighting has seemingly paused. CNN’s Betsy Klein reports.
On Iran
President Donald Trump is allowing talks with Iran to develop during the weekend’s apparent pause in strikes, according to Waltz.
In a separate interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Waltz said diplomatic efforts have ramped up “particularly in the past few days.”
But in the NBC interview, Waltz reiterated Trump’s warning that the US military is “locked and loaded” and said the president is “keeping all options on the table.”
Waltz claimed internal divisions within the Iranian regime have made negotiations challenging.
CNN reported that in a Friday meeting at the White House where Trump and top officials discussed the possibility of an escalation in the war, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine raised concerns about the US munitions stockpile, among other potentially negative implications.
Waltz appeared to concede that “a lot of stockpiles were depleted,” casting blame on US provisions to Ukraine and what he described as the “depleted situation” the Trump administration inherited from its predecessor.
On US-Saudi nuclear deal
Waltz reaffirmed that a deal providing a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia will not take effect until the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel.
The controversial deal was announced last week. But one day after it was signed, Trump placed a new condition on the pact: Saudi Arabia must first enter into the Abraham Accords.
The series of agreements aimed at establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East. The Saudis have historically been resistant to such efforts.
He suggested that the Saudis could have gone to “the Russians for nuclear technology” or “to the Chinese for nuclear technology,” but chose the US.
