An Iranian attack on Israel would likely be carried out by Iranian proxy forces in the region, rather than by Iran directly, two people familiar with US intelligence on the matter told CNN.
Tehran is wary of a dramatic escalation in the fighting, the sources said, and does not want to give the United States or its allies an excuse to attack Iran directly.
Iran and its proxy militia groups also do not appear poised to attack US troops or other assets in the region for similar reasons, the sources said. The sources noted, however, that Iran does not have perfect command and control over all of its proxy forces, so the possibility of an attack on US assets cannot be completely ruled out.
The US and its allies have been bracing for a possible attack against Israeli and US assets in the region in retaliation for an Israeli strike last week on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, which killed a dozen Iranian military officials.
The sources told CNN that US intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel, using drones and missiles, and that they could attack as soon as this week. There is some debate, however, about whether they will wait until after Ramadan ends to strike, said one of the sources.
“The threat is very clear and credible,” said one of the sources. “They have put the pieces in place to conduct the attack now. Just waiting for the right time.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
