Story highlights
- As world powers agree to "cessation of hostilities, Matthew Chance asks if Russia has successfully played the West again?
- He says Russia may be helping Syrian forces to advance, but in the long run, it may find it harder
Moscow (CNN)It's not quite a ceasefire, more a "cessation of hostilities," explained U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
But for the Russians, the agreement brokered in Munich to halt the fighting in Syria is neither.
"Despite these accords, Russia will continue its counter-terrorism operation of the air task force," Vladmir Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the Russian International Affairs Committee, told state media.
Diplomats agree to 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria 02:41
The agreement relates "only to the warring groupings," he went on, "not to terrorists on the territory of Syria."
Russia therefore believes its airstrikes in Aleppo are not included, nor are attacks against what Moscow calls terrorist targets across Syria.
It is a glaring hole in the "cessation" to say the least.
Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Syrian refugees await their fate near the Turkish border gate as they flee the northern embattled city of Aleppo on February 6, 2016.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Refugees push each other as they wait for tents near the Turkish border on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
A refugee girl reacts near the Turkish border gate on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Refugees jostle one another for tents near the Turkish border on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Refugee children arrive at the Turkish border gate on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Syrian refugees are pictured in a camp as they flee the city of Aleppo on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
A refugee carries a heavy bag of items near the Turkish border gate on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
A refugee woman carries her belongings near the Turkish border gate on February 6.
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Refugee children sit on a car near the Turkish border crossing on February 6.
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A refugee warms himself at a bonfire near the Turkish border on February 6.
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Refugees brave the cold and rain as they arrive at the Turkish border on February 6.
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A child tries to climb over a fence near the Turkish border as Syrians fleeing the northern city of Aleppo wait on February 6.
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A young refugee carrying belongings arrives at the Turkish border on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
Refugees arrive near the Turkish border as they flee the city of Aleppo on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
A child carries his belongings as Syrian refugees arrive at the Turkish border on February 6.
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Photos: Syrian refugees flee embattled city of Aleppo
A child sleeps as Syrians fleeing the northern embattled city of Aleppo wait near the Turkish border on February 5, 2016.
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A Syrian teenager and a child look on near the Turkish border on February 5.
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Russian air power is now ferociously pounding the areas of Aleppo, Syria's biggest city, still under rebel control.
According to the Russian defense ministry, 510 combat sorties were carried out across Syria by its warplanes last week alone, many of them focused on supporting Syrian troop advances aimed an encircling Aleppo.
The defense ministry reports engaging 1,888 "terrorist objects." There's been no indication that pace of strikes, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes, is set to decrease.
Is victory even possible?
On the ground, the result is straightforward. The Syrian Army, backed by the Russian air force and fighting alongside Iranian militia and other groups, is making substantial gains.
It is, in other words, winning.
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Syrian refugees are stranded as Russian airstrikes advance 02:46
That's not a word Western diplomats like to use, or even hear, when it comes to Russia, Syria or President Bashar al-Assad.
At a recent embassy briefing, one senior diplomat questioned the very idea of any victory being possible in Syria's quagmire.
And the diplomat may be right. Russia's intervention has turned the tables, saved al-Assad, and restored Moscow's self-image as a great power.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin's end-game remains unclear.
How will al-Assad's forces, for instance, hang on to the territory they are so quickly seizing from the rebels?
Without the continued, indefinite and extremely costly backing of Russian air power, government forces may be too weak to maintain control.
After all, it's the reason al-Assad lost the territory in the first place.
It all points back to the old criticism of the Russian president one western diplomat told me recently.
"A master tactician, but a poor strategist," the diplomat said.
We shall see.
