Story highlights
- Preliminary analysis concludes missile was from a Russian-made system, official says
- U.S. intelligence has concluded that pro-Russian separatists have a Buk system, official says
- "All the indications are it was fired from inside eastern Ukraine," official says
A classified U.S. intelligence analysis says it is most likely that pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine fired the missile that downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, CNN has learned.
A U.S. defense official with direct access to the latest information detailed the analysis to CNN but declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information.
The preliminary analysis concludes the missile was from a Russian-made Buk system, known as the SA-11 among NATO forces, the official said. U.S. military intelligence analysts concluded only the SA-11 or the SA-20 has the warhead, range and ability to shoot down an airliner, the official said.
The Ukrainians are not believed to have an SA-20 system, and there is no intelligence suggesting Russia ever transferred one across the border. However, U.S. intelligence has concluded that pro-Russian separatists have a Buk system. The official says it's unclear if the separatists captured it from Ukraine or Russia transferred it to them.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on September 9, 2014. The Boeing 777 was shot down July 17, 2014, over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In an October 2015 report, Dutch investigators found the flight was shot down by a warhead that fit a Buk rocket, referring to Russian technology, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra said.
Hide Caption
1 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on August 3, 2014.
Hide Caption
2 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on August 2, 2014.
Hide Caption
3 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on July 22, 2014.
Hide Caption
4 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21, 2014.
Hide Caption
5 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
– Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21, 2014.
Hide Caption
6 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21, 2014.
Hide Caption
7 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21, 2014.
Hide Caption
8 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21, 2014.
Hide Caption
9 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20, 2014.
Hide Caption
10 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20, 2014, as they work to locate the deceased.
Hide Caption
11 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20, 2014, to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies.
Hide Caption
12 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20, 2014.
Hide Caption
13 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20, 2014.
Hide Caption
14 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20, 2014.
Hide Caption
15 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
16 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
17 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
18 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19, 2014, as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter.
Hide Caption
19 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
20 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
21 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
22 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
23 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman looks at wreckage on July 19, 2014.
Hide Caption
24 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
25 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks through the debris field on July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
26 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site.
Hide Caption
27 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
28 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18, 2014. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada.
Hide Caption
29 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
30 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Coal miners search the crash site.
Hide Caption
31 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
32 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People search for bodies of passengers on July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
33 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
34 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18, 2014.
Hide Caption
35 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17, 2014.
Hide Caption
36 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash.
Hide Caption
37 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border.
Hide Caption
38 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Fire engines arrive at the crash site.
Hide Caption
39 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man stands next to wreckage.
Hide Caption
40 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine.
Hide Caption
41 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Hide Caption
42 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A large piece of the plane lies on the ground.
Hide Caption
43 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site.
Hide Caption
44 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight.
Hide Caption
45 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia.
Hide Caption
46 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17, 2014.
Hide Caption
47 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man inspects debris from the plane.
Hide Caption
48 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17, 2014.
Hide Caption
49 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17, 2014.
Hide Caption
50 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage burns in Ukraine.
Hide Caption
51 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner.
Hide Caption
52 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
53 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
54 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
55 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
56 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
57 of 58
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Hide Caption
58 of 58
The timeline before MH17 crashed 02:56
MH17 shot down amid political chaos 02:44
The U.S. military and intelligence community expect to have a more definitive assessment of what happened by the end of the weekend. "We want to put together a solid picture" on each element of the event, the official said.
That assessment is expected to remain classified for now, but will be shared among NATO nations, the official said. It may eventually be shared publicly to show what the United States believes happened.
"We cannot say with complete certainty, but we do not think the missile came from the Russian side of the border," the official said. "All the indications are it was fired from inside eastern Ukraine."
The initial assessment also suggests separatists thought they were shooting at a Ukrainian military transport plane.
Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's top military commander, who also is head of the U.S. European Command, is leading much of the U.S. military's technical intelligence effort looking at all satellite, radar and other intelligence data from the area.
He is coordinating with other NATO members and east European nations in the region scouring their radar and intelligence assets to see if there is specific data showing the event.
For now, the United States has some data that shows a missile launch system was turned on and operating in the area at the time of the plane's downing as well as separate data that shows a heat signature of a major event, believed to be the plane being shot down.
