May 2, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears imminent.

The country's front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas. President Volodymyr Zelensky has assured a counteroffensive “will happen," while demurring on any exact start date.

It may have already started; it may be weeks away. We don’t know – but Ukrainians, whom CNN spoke to in Kyiv, are pinning their hopes on this much-anticipated counteroffensive.

Tetiana Kolle-Kolesnikova, 35, left her town Volnovakha in the Donetsk region in the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion. Now she lives and works in Kyiv as a manicurist. 

“I expect that our army will win in any case and take back all the occupied territories. And our family will finally be able to return home and see their homeland. We miss home very much," she told CNN.

Lawyer and Kyiv resident, Yurii Holovach, is also hoping for a positive outcome from the counteroffensive, but he also doesn't want the Ukrainian forces to feel rushed.

"They need to be trained and prepared. Even if it takes more time to get prepared — it's better, because then we will get more weapons. We need long-range weapons for the counteroffensive to go successfully," he said.

Tetiana Kravets, 26, an administrator in a notary firm in Kyiv, hopes that the counteroffensive is successful so the country could return to its pre-war conditions.

Contrary to their expectations, 56-year-old Ruslan Stryk living in Kyiv thinks there may not be a counteroffensive at all. Recounting his observations from the early days of April 2022 in Mariupol — before he evacuated with his wife — he said, a successful counteroffensive would need military aircraft.

"We don’t have planes! I remember in Mariupol, the sky was theirs [Russians’]. So without the military aircraft, there can be no counteroffensive. Or maybe the long-range weapons can do the trick, to be able to destroy their logistics in the rear. But without it, it’s very dangerous," he said.  

"I want to [go] back home. But we need combat aircraft and long-range artillery. Otherwise, there will be big personnel losses,” he added. 

The latest intelligence update from Britain’s defense intelligence agency said Moscow has constructed some of the most sprawling and complex defensive trenches "seen anywhere in the world for many decades," along the northern border of annexed Crimea, and "well inside" Russia's southern Belgorod and Kursk regions.

"The defences highlight Russian leaders’ deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a major breakthrough," the agency said.

Catch up on other key developments today from Russia's war in Ukraine:

Russia rejects US casualty estimates: The White House on Monday estimated that the Russian military has suffered at least 100,000 casualties — both wounded and dead — in Ukraine in the past five months. Washington said more than 20,000 military members have been killed, half of which were Wagner fighters. 

On Tuesday, the Kremlin pushed back, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying that Washington has “absolutely no way” to give accurate estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine. Peskov said numbers from the Russia defense ministry "will publish in due time." The last Russian casualty count was released last September.

Russian official defends actions on children: Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian commissioner for children’s rights, who was issued an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court along with Russian President Vladimir Putin, spoke about the charges against her in an interview with Vice News. The warrants were issued in March for the alleged "unlawful deportation and transfer of children" from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia. 

In the interview, she dismissed the allegations against her and said she is fostering a 16-year-old Ukrainian boy who she called "my child," adding, "We love each other madly."

US ambassador to China's comments: US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said Beijing needs to "push Russia to withdraw its troops."

"It’d be helpful if China pushed Russia to cease bombing of Ukrainian schools, and Ukrainian hospitals, and Ukrainian apartment buildings," he said. His remarks come after a phone call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the first since Russia's full-scale invasion.

Explosion in Melitopol: A Russian-installed deputy head of a regional police department was hospitalized by an explosive device in the Russian-occupied southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol on Tuesday, Russia's investigative committee said.

The incident comes after another police chief in Melitopol, Oleksandr Mishchenko, was killed on April 27 when an improvised device exploded at the entrance to the apartment building where he lived.

A criminal investigation was launched after a Russian-installed deputy head of a regional police department was hospitalized by an explosive device in the occupied southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol on Tuesday, Russia's Investigative Committee said in a statement.

The incident happened at the gate of a residential building, the statement added.

"An improvised explosive device was planted, which was set off when the deputy head of the Russian Central Internal Affairs Directorate for the Zaporizhzhia region opened the gate on his way to work. As a result, the man suffered a mine-explosive injury. The victim was admitted to a medical facility," it said. The statement did not name him.

"Investigative and operational-search measures are being taken to identify those involved in the commission of this crime," it added. 

The exiled Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said that an explosion was heard on Tuesday morning by residents in the northern districts of the city.

It follows a similar blast last week: The incident comes after another police chief in Melitopol, Oleksandr Mishchenko, was killed on April 27 when an improvised device exploded at the entrance to the apartment building where he lived.

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said Tuesday three suspects "of a sabotage and reconnaissance group, which included a citizen of Ukraine and two citizens of Russia" allegedly involved in Mishchenko's death were detained. 

Last week, Fedorov commented on Mishchenko’s death on Telegram, writing: "Before the full-scale invasion, Mishchenko was the head of the Pryazovia police department. After the occupation, not only he did defect to the enemy, but he also persuaded his employees to become traitors."

The United States wants to see China press Russia to end its war in Ukraine, US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said Tuesday.

"What we need to see from China is to push Russia to withdraw its troops and so that Ukraine can have all of its territory back and can be fully sovereign again in all aspects of that word," Burns said at an event at the foreign affairs think tank Stimson Center, which he attended virtually.

Burns said the conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was "a good first step," but it's unclear if any action will follow it.

Burns said that the US has been watching the issue of China potentially providing lethal aid to Russia "very carefully now for many months."

"We have not seen evidence that the Chinese are doing that, but we continue to watch it," he said.

Some context: Beijing has claimed neutrality on the war in Ukraine, but has not condemned Russia’s invasion and instead bolstered its economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow over the past year.

A senior Russian official wanted by the International Criminal Court said that she is "not ashamed of anything" she has done in an alleged scheme to illegally deport Ukrainian children to Russia in an interview with Vice News.

Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian commissioner for children’s rights, is being sought — along with Russian President Vladimir Putin — for the alleged "unlawful deportation and transfer of children" from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia. An ICC arrest warrant for Putin and Lvova-Belova was issued in March.

During the interview, when asked if she views herself as a war criminal, she laughed and said, "It’s funny. I am a mother. That says it all. A war criminal? What are you talking about?"

According to American and European governments and independent investigators, Lvova-Belova has overseen an organized effort to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia. Those reports allege many of those minors undergo political reeducation and are given to Russian families for adoption.

Lvova-Belova said she herself is fostering a 16-year-old Ukrainian boy named Philip, who is from Mariupol.

Lvova-Belova claimed that under Geneva conventions, children can be moved "from a zone that threatens their lives." When challenged that the conventions say they should be moved to third countries, she said the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are evidence of third countries.

They "were not part of Ukraine; they were recognized as independent republics by our country," she said.

The separatist republics are now claimed by Moscow to be part of Russian territory, despite broad international condemnation of the annexation attempt.

On Bakhmut: Lvova-Belova claimed that there are no evacuation corridors for adults and children in Bakhmut, the eastern city that has been besieged for months by Russian forces.

"My staff and I just recently evacuated families with children from there. We were saving children. We took them to places where they can survive and be safe," she claimed.

To note: A number of international news organizations have curtailed their work inside the Russian Federation following the arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich in late March on what the US government, the WSJ and other media outlets have condemned as bogus espionage charges. Vice News said in the article that their journalists observed Lvova-Belova's team filming them with mobile phones in the days preceding the interview.

Russia is not aware of the Vatican's mission to help resolve the conflict with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Tuesday.

"No. We know nothing about it," Peskov said.

A Ukrainian official close to the President Volodymyr Zelensky's office also told CNN Monday that Kyiv has “no knowledge” of a peace mission involving the Vatican.

“President Zelensky has not consented to any such discussions on Ukraine’s behalf,” the official said. “If talks are happening, they are happening without our knowledge or our blessing".

These comments come after Pope Francis on Sunday told journalists that the Vatican is part of a mission to end the war in Ukraine. “The mission is in the course now, but it is not yet public,” he said after a three-day trip to Hungary.

“When it is public, I will reveal it,” the pope added.

Washington has “absolutely no way” to give accurate estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. 

“Washington has absolutely no way to give any correct numbers, and this is how it should be treated. You need to focus on the numbers that the Ministry of Defense will publish in due time,” Peskov said in response to CNN’s question on a daily call.

The White House on Monday estimated that the Russian military has suffered at least 100,000 casualties in Ukraine in the past five months, including more than 20,000 dead, half of which were Wagner fighters. The US is defining the term “casualty” as both wounded and killed.  

The Russian Ministry of Defense has not released updates on the casualties since last September, when Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that 5,937 Russian soldiers have been killed. 

On Tuesday, Shoigu appeared to issue a rebuttal to the US claim, saying, “despite the unprecedented military assistance from Western countries, the enemy is suffering significant losses. Over the past month alone, they have lost more than 15,000 people."

A sea of trenches built by Russia in the southern regions bordering Ukraine reveal the Kremlin's concern Kyiv's anticipated spring counteroffensive could result in a "major breakthrough," as senior Ukrainian officials signal preparations are almost complete.

Here are the latest developments:

Russia has built "extensive systems of military defensive works" in southern regions bordering with Ukraine, indicating the Kremlin's "deep concern" Kyiv's spring counteroffensive could mark a "major breakthrough" in the conflict, according to the latest intelligence update from Britain’s defense intelligence agency on Monday.

The update said Moscow has constructed some of the most sprawling and complex defensive trenches "seen anywhere in the world for many decades," along the northern border of annexed Crimea, and "well inside" Russia's southern Belgorod and Kursk regions.

"These defences are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls," the agency said in an assessment shared on Twitter Monday. It added that construction started in summer 2022, several months after Russia launched its brutal military campaign.

"However, some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO."

Some background: Satellite imagery reviewed by CNN and other news organizations shows the extent of Russian defenses that have been built up in parts of southern Ukraine – layers of anti-tank ditches, obstacles, minefields and trenches.

The defenses continue for hundreds of miles across the meandering southern front – where Ukrainian forces are expected to concentrate their counter-offensive in the coming weeks.

Such defenses, however, are only as good as the forces assigned to each sector. On their own they are a limited impediment. Which is why the Russians have pushed more units into southern Ukraine. These defensive lines have become critical to their overall goals.

Read more on the spring offensive here:

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