May 2, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

Washington has “absolutely no way” to give accurate estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. 

“Washington has absolutely no way to give any correct numbers, and this is how it should be treated. You need to focus on the numbers that the Ministry of Defense will publish in due time,” Peskov said in response to CNN’s question on a daily call.

The White House on Monday estimated that the Russian military has suffered at least 100,000 casualties in Ukraine in the past five months, including more than 20,000 dead, half of which were Wagner fighters. The US is defining the term “casualty” as both wounded and killed.  

The Russian Ministry of Defense has not released updates on the casualties since last September, when Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that 5,937 Russian soldiers have been killed. 

On Tuesday, Shoigu appeared to issue a rebuttal to the US claim, saying, “despite the unprecedented military assistance from Western countries, the enemy is suffering significant losses. Over the past month alone, they have lost more than 15,000 people."

A sea of trenches built by Russia in the southern regions bordering Ukraine reveal the Kremlin's concern Kyiv's anticipated spring counteroffensive could result in a "major breakthrough," as senior Ukrainian officials signal preparations are almost complete.

Here are the latest developments:

Russia has built "extensive systems of military defensive works" in southern regions bordering with Ukraine, indicating the Kremlin's "deep concern" Kyiv's spring counteroffensive could mark a "major breakthrough" in the conflict, according to the latest intelligence update from Britain’s defense intelligence agency on Monday.

The update said Moscow has constructed some of the most sprawling and complex defensive trenches "seen anywhere in the world for many decades," along the northern border of annexed Crimea, and "well inside" Russia's southern Belgorod and Kursk regions.

"These defences are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls," the agency said in an assessment shared on Twitter Monday. It added that construction started in summer 2022, several months after Russia launched its brutal military campaign.

"However, some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO."

Some background: Satellite imagery reviewed by CNN and other news organizations shows the extent of Russian defenses that have been built up in parts of southern Ukraine – layers of anti-tank ditches, obstacles, minefields and trenches.

The defenses continue for hundreds of miles across the meandering southern front – where Ukrainian forces are expected to concentrate their counter-offensive in the coming weeks.

Such defenses, however, are only as good as the forces assigned to each sector. On their own they are a limited impediment. Which is why the Russians have pushed more units into southern Ukraine. These defensive lines have become critical to their overall goals.

Read more on the spring offensive here:

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Ukraine could launch its offensive against Russia any moment. Here's what's waiting | CNN

Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said on Tuesday that weather is hampering Ukraine’s much anticipated spring offensive, even as senior officials in Kyiv signal that preparations are reaching their final stage.

Prystaiko added that he understood Ukraine had now received “98% of everything we asked for this particular counter offensive," as Western allies continue to pledge military aid and support to Kyiv.

Ukraine has been preparing for a spring offensive likely in the south. When launched, it will mark a significant shift in the grueling conflict. Asked where the war is going, Prystaiko said: "That's why we're trying to have this really breakthrough offensive. But too much hope is put on this one."

On Friday, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said plans for the counter offensive are almost complete.

“Preparations [for the counteroffensive] are coming to an end,” Reznikov said.

“In a global sense, we are ready in a high percentage mode. The next question is up to the General Staff ... As soon as it is God's will, the weather and the commanders' decision, we will do it."

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive appears imminent – and the way each side is preparing speaks volumes about their readiness.

Kyiv’s front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas.

Its defense minister has said preparations are “coming to an end” and President Volodymyr Zelensky has assured a counteroffensive “will happen,” while demurring on any exact start date.

It may have already started; it may be weeks away. We don’t know – and that fact is a strong measure of Ukraine’s success as this begins.

First, the apparent firing of the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not spelled out his dismissal, merely issuing a decree that Aleksey Kuzmenkov now has his job.

The “Butcher of Mariupol,” as Mizintsev is known, surely had enough failings over Russia’s disastrous war to merit his firing. But this fails to satisfy the question: Why now?

By removing key ministers in the moments before its army faces Ukraine’s counter-assault, Moscow sends a message of disarray.

Read the full story:

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As Ukraine prepares counteroffensive, Russia appears in disarray | CNN

A Russian official on Tuesday said Ukrainian forces had shelled the border town of Kurkovichi overnight — the third time in three days he has accused Ukraine of attacking the southwest Russian region of Bryansk.

Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz, whose region shares a border to its south with Ukraine and to its west with Belarus, made the latest allegations in a Twitter post, adding there were no casualties.

It comes after he claimed on Monday that an IED exploded along the Bryansk-Unecha railway, which borders Ukraine, causing a freight train to derail.

Video footage taken at the scene of the railway explosion shows dozens of destroyed and burned out rail cars smoldering as emergency crews put out several fires. There were no casualties in that incident, he said.

On Sunday, the governor said Ukrainian shelling killed four civilians after strikes hit residential buildings in the village of Suzemka, in Syzemsky district.

In all instances, Bogomaz has not provided any evidence and CNN cannot independently verify his claims. Ukraine has not commented on the alleged incidents.

Russia's winter offensive has “backfired” as its forces suffered more than 100,000 casualties since December, according to new estimated figures announced by the Biden administration on Monday.

White House official John Kirby told reporters Russia has "exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces" and the US estimates more than 20,000 of its troops have been killed in action in recent months. 

The US defines a “casualty” as wounded or killed.  

Here are the latest developments:

Video footage taken at the scene of Monday's track explosion, which caused a freight train derailment in Bryansk, Russia, shows dozens of destroyed and burned out rail cars smoldering as emergency crews put out several fires.

Alexander Bogomaz, the region’s governor, wrote on Telegram that an explosive detonated 136 kilometers (85 miles) along the Bryansk-Unecha railway, which borders Ukraine. He added there are no casualties. 

"You must highlight the wretchedness of those who are doing the planning in the Ukrainian special forces. They came here and put down mines, blew up a commercial train. How vile!" said Sergey Karnaukhov, the pro-Kremlin blogger and activist who posted videos from the scene of the incident.

CNN cannot independently verify the allegations made by Karnaukhov as to who was responsible for the derailment. Ukraine has not yet commented on the incident. 

Ukraine said it has “no knowledge” of a peace mission involving the Vatican to resolve the conflict with Russia.

“President Zelensky has not consented to any such discussions on Ukraine’s behalf,” a Ukrainian official close to the presidential office told CNN.

The official dismissed any papal role after Pope Francis on Sunday told journalists the Vatican is part of a mission to end the war in Ukraine. “The mission is in the course now, but it is not yet public,” he said after a three-day trip to Hungary.

“When it is public, I will reveal it,” the pope added.

Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met Francis at the Vatican and said he had discussed a “peace formula” put forward by Zelensky and invited the pope to visit Ukraine.