Editor’s Note: Paul Sracic, a professor of politics and international relations at Youngstown State University, is an adjunct scholar at the Hudson Institute. He is coauthor of “Ohio Politics and Government” (Congressional Quarterly Press, 2015). Follow him on Twitter: @pasracic. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.
Cleveland entrepreneur Bernie Moreno’s trouncing of Matt Dolan, an Ohio state legislator whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, was a bit of shock. The two were competing in the GOP primary to oppose Democrat Sherrod Brown for US Senate seat.
Most saw the race as a toss-up, so it was not the victory, but the wide margin, that was so surprising. The big winner, however, was not Moreno, and the big loser was not Dolan. Instead, the real victor was former President Donald Trump, who defeated the last vestiges of what was once a center-right Republican Party in Ohio.
Symbolizing the old guard was Mike DeWine, the current governor, and Rob Portman, who represented Ohio in the US Senate for many years. Both of those long-time Ohio Republican politicians had endorsed Matt Dolan.
In some ways, this was a continuation of the story that began in 2022, when J.D. Vance pulled away from the pack in the GOP Senate primary following Trump’s endorsement. Indeed, you could argue that Vance was also a winner in Tuesday’s primary.
It was Vance who, according to reporting from Politico, convinced Trump to hold a last-minute rally for Moreno in Dayton, Ohio. If Moreno had lost, it would have made Trump look bad, and he would have likely blamed Vance.
Instead, Vance has clearly secured his status in the Trump inner circle, and may have even increased his odds of serving as Trump’s running mate in 2024. Ironically, if a Trump/Vance ticket were to win, DeWine would have the opportunity to appoint Matt Dolan to Vance’s vacant Senate seat!
So, what does this portend for Ohio, and perhaps the nation, in 2024 and beyond? Most importantly, it is obvious that, despite all the court cases and controversies that Trump has endured over the past few years, he still has a hold on his voters.
Although Moreno did well throughout the state, he did very well in all of the counties along the Pennsylvania-Ohio border. This is significant for two reasons: First, it was these counties, specifically Trumbull and Mahoning counties on the northern portion of the border, that contained many of the “Obama to Trump” voters who led to Trump’s surprising victory in 2016.
Also, the voters on the Pennsylvania side of the border are not all that different from the voters on the Ohio side. Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 50,000 votes in 2016, and lost by less than 100,000 votes four years later.
Any evidence that Trump has managed to retain the support of his voters from the last two elections is bad news for the Biden campaign, which is likely to lose at least some of their 2020 voters, given the president’s abysmal favorability numbers.
Strong support for Trump is also bad news for Brown. This is significant because a Brown loss in November, along with the all-but-certain Democratic loss of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, would make it nearly impossible for Democrats to hold their slim majority in the Senate.
Although Moreno has been portrayed as a weaker opponent for Brown than Dolan, since the former has never held political office in Ohio, he has become Trump’s candidate, and Trump is likely to win Ohio going away in 2024.
In 2018, Brown won an easy victory over then Ohio Congressman Jim Renacci, but turnout in a presidential year is very different from turnout during a midterm election, and Renacci was never seen as Trump’s candidate. The fact that Brown has been in public office since the 1970s will not be seen as a virtue in 2024, and Moreno’s lack of political experience will allow him to easily draw a contrast with Brown.
Still, Brown is a household name in Ohio, and may be able to escape being too closely linked to Biden. It is arguable, therefore, that some voters who will fail to support Biden still vote for Brown over issues such as abortion rights. This would become more likely if Moreno’s lack of experience as a candidate leads to missteps on the campaign trail.
The demise of the old Republican guard in Ohio will also send shockwaves ahead to 2026, when Ohioans will be voting on the replacement for the term-limited DeWine. Current Lt. Gov. Jon Husted is the natural heir-apparent, but there will now clearly be a strong challenger from the Trump wing of the party.
The obvious name that comes to mind is Ohio native Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran a surprisingly strong campaign for the Republican presidential nomination while serving as almost a Trump surrogate on the debate stage.
Overall, Tuesday night’s results will be something we will be talking about in Ohio for years to come.
