Editor’s Note: Liam Kerr co-founded WelcomePAC, which supports Democrats who persuade independent and GOP voters. He writes the WelcomeStack (www.welcomestack.org) newsletter. The views expressed in this piece are his own. View more opinion on CNN.
Are the progressive activists who harassed West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema happy now?
The two centrist senators recently announced their departures after years of serving as a “heat shield” for their moderate and electorally vulnerable Democratic colleagues by publicly holding up controversial legislation and drawing subsequent attacks from liberal critics.
Not only are Manchin and Sinema leaving the Senate, but Democrats are paying a steep electoral price for their leftward lurch. The share of Democrats who identify as liberal has hit a record high, while the share of overall voters identifying as Democrats has hit a historic low. Disruptive activists and members of Congress on the left who have called the Democratic Party “too big of a tent” appear to be getting what they want: a smaller, but more ideologically rigid, party.
Such a party will struggle to win. Voters now prefer Republicans in the generic ballot for Congress. One election forecast predicts a four-seat GOP majority in the next Senate. Leftist activists have supercharged a perception that Democrats are beholden to their left flank, causing voters to align closer to the GOP than to Democrats on the ideological spectrum.
There are differences between Sinema – a complex figure who has identified as independent since 2022 and represents a state in which Democrats running for Senate, governor or president have consistently won in recent years – and the electoral miracle of Manchin, a Democrat in a very red state. But harassment tactics directed at the centrist senators have been similar. Sinema noted that being chased into a bathroom by activists about her moderate stance on immigration policy was “no legitimate protest,” and she was right. While Manchin has always been emphatic about the right to protest, protests at his home – and by kayak – also crossed a line.
Did protests impact the legislative agenda or retirement decisions of Manchin and Sinema? There is no evidence to suggest so. But it’s hard to imagine it encouraged them to stick around. And political science research suggests such ideologically charged harassment may prevent future moderate candidates from even running for office in the first place. It would be a shame if the forces that have antagonized Sinema and Manchin within the party see their departures as reason for doubling down on their bad behavior.
These forces are not only sporadic volunteer activists but often professionals with a coherent strategy backed by megadonors and foundations. The explicit goal of the donor behind the group that “bird-dogged” Manchin, for example, is “not giving him any peace.”
It is not just the radicals who are at fault. They are being cheered on by people who should know better. You would think that other members of Congress would abhor the efforts of disruptive groups like the Manchin-harassing Climate Defiance. But Rep. Ro Khanna of California and “Squad” members including Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri participate in swanky fundraising events with ultra-wealthy Climate Defiance supporters like heiress Abigail Disney
These leftist disruptors and their congressional associates are winning some battles. But they will lose the war. There are two ways for disruptive progressive activists to lose: One is for them to be defeated within the party by more pragmatic Democrats. The other path is successfully changing the party brand or kicking moderates out of the party, which would cause the Democratic Party – the standard bearer for issues such as welcoming immigration and acting on the climate – to lose. Political science research is clear that moderate candidates perform better.
But it is not just about the candidate – actions associated with the party can damage the overall party brand. An MIT Election Lab study showed independent voters became 7 points less likely to support Democrats just by reading a single neutral news article about the presidential primary debates featuring arguments for progressive policy.
Appeasing the angry, extremist left has been a major mistake for Democrats – both morally and electorally. Too many in the party simply accept it. But mainstream Democrats can fight back and win elections in the process.
Two viral videos last week give some hope that the tide may be turning. One shows the potential for pushback, even on the far left. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, another Squad member, was chased out of a movie theater by pro-Palestinian protesters who demanded that she call Israel’s war on Hamas a “genocide.” She angrily fought back, saying she had in fact used the terminology and making clear the harm of the activists’ tactics: “It’s f**ked up, man. It is not helping these people. You’re not helping them.”
That video mostly made the rounds in conservative media. But the message is even more important for Democrats: These activists are not helping the causes they claim to champion.
Nowhere is that more clear than with Manchin, who delivered billions in clean-energy investments through the Inflation Reduction Act while representing a state that then-President Donald Trump won by nearly 39 points in 2020.
Days before the AOC video, there was a similarly aggressive protest against Manchin that went viral when an aide forcefully pushed back a Climate Defiance activist who burst into a Harvard study room and shouted obscenities at the sitting senator. Manchin has pushed back figuratively against online attacks for years, and now his aide literally pushed back against aggressive progressive activists’ physical intimidation – and social media loved it.
There is still time for other Democrats to push back. It may not save the Senate, but it can stem losses. The party’s leader, President Joe Biden, seems to be fearful of the activist left – so much so that his campaign is avoiding college campuses and talking about clearly popular things like the record energy production that polls show voters like but his administration intentionally downplays.
The time to push back is now. Democrats cannot cower to disruptive leftists. As the departures of Sinema and Manchin show, the big tent is shrinking at the worst possible time.
