After swinging through New York City as Spider-Man, Tom Holland returns this weekend with another film that has him dangling from great heights. This time he does so as adventurer and video game mainstay Nathan Drake.
“Uncharted” — based on a best-selling Sony video game — hopes to use Holland’s star power and the studio’s box-office momentum to give the theater industry a boost.
The film is projected for roughly a $30 million opening over the holiday weekend. Some analysts are predicting that the film could make a tad bit more thanks to the recognition of Holland and the “Uncharted” series. The film brought in $3.7 million for its Thursday previews.
But how much “Uncharted” will make this weekend is still — like Drake himself — up in the air.
Sony’s secret weapon
“Uncharted” — which cost $120 million to make and is opening 4,200 locations — has a lot working for it this weekend. That starts with Holland.
“If Sony has a secret weapon, it may indeed be Tom Holland,” Paul Dergarbedian, senior media analyst at Comscore (SCOR), told CNN Business. “But that secret weapon will be tested this weekend.”
Sony (SNE) and Holland are coming off “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which had the second biggest box office opening of all time. It also captivated pop culture for weeks and arguably revitalized the film industry in the middle of a pandemic.
Since shattering box office records, the Marvel film has become one of Hollywood’s most successful blockbusters ever, notching nearly $2 billion worldwide. It just became the third-highest-grossing film in North American history, overtaking “Avatar.”
That’s good news for the ticket sales of “Uncharted” because the film has a “halo effect” around it, according to Dergarabedian.
A film as popular as “No Way Home” could bring in moviegoers to “Uncharted” who love Holland, despite not knowing the difference between Nathan Drake and Peter Parker. (“Uncharted” also stars Mark Wahlberg, so Holland won’t have to carry the treasure hunt adventure film on his own.)
However, a huge question remains: Can Sony nab a boffo box office with Holland not in his spidey suit? That’s what the studio is betting on this weekend, and the stakes are high with a potentially new franchise for the studio on the line.
While “Uncharted” has a lot going for it, it is still a movie based on a video game — a genre that “has had one of the most uneven track records in the history of the box office,” according to Dergarabedian.
Sonic or Super Mario?
Video game movies have historically been more miss than hit at the ticket booth.
For every “Sonic The Hedgehog” — which made more than $300 million worldwide in 2020 — there are video game films like “Max Payne,” “Doom” and 1993’s “Super Mario Bros.,” all of which were flops.
But video games are especially popular with young males, and that demographic has been a “key factor in the recovery of movie theaters over the past year,” according to Dergarabedian.
On top of all of that, “Uncharted” is one of the most popular video game series there is.
The brand — which has users play as Drake as he takes on exciting Indiana Jones-esque adventures — has multiple sequels and spinoffs for Sony’s beloved video game platform, PlayStation. (So that’s also a nice piece of synergy for the company as well.)
This could help “Uncharted” avoid the video game curse at the box office that has plagued many big budget gaming adaptations like it.
And it doesn’t hurt that Sony has been on a winning streak at the box office lately.
Sony’s hot streak
Sony had a strong 2021, and most of it came in the final three months of the year.
The studio kicked off October with “Venom: Let There Be Carnage.” The film about the Spider-Man villain had a $90 million opening (a pandemic record at the time) and has since brought in more than $500 million globally.
In November, Sony followed up its Venom success with “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” which made close to $200 million worldwide.
Then in December, it released “No Way Home.”
That type of momentum could help “Uncharted” this weekend and lead to another strong year for the studio.
“All of these films seemed impervious to any negative effects that the pandemically challenged marketplace may have thrown at other films,” Dergarabedian said. “Now it’s ‘Uncharted’s’ turn to see if it can keep Sony’s streak going into 2022.”
