Editor’s Note: Samantha Vinograd is a CNN National Security Analyst. She served on President Obama’s National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.
Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across President Trump’s desk.
Modeled on the President’s Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues the President needs to know to make informed decisions.
Here’s this week’s briefing:
Oh, Canada: Reciprocal trade
On Canada Day, Canada confirmed that it is, in fact, implementing “proportional” tariffs on $13 billion worth of US products in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs. So, Mr. President, much like other countries who have retaliated against your trade moves with penalties of their own, Canada believes it was provoked into taking these measures.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, like his Chinese and EU counterparts, likely views these measures as free, fair, and reciprocal – which is known to be a cornerstone of your administration’s policy, rather than just retaliatory. If the United States continues to impose penalties on imports that our friends and enemies alike consider illegal and unfair (there are World Trade Organization complaints pending against us), we should expect more reciprocal, retaliatory measures from other countries.
North Korea keeps up the bad work
Since your summit with Kim Jong Un and subsequent tweet that the North Korean nuclear threat is gone, we are seeing indications that the North Koreans are actually enhancing their nuclear capabilities rather than starting to denuclearize.
Destroying test sites, which the North Koreans have done recently, is a red herring because Kim says he already has nuclear capability – meaning they’re good to go, and he no longer needs to test his weapons.
What’s not a red herring is North Korea’s continued illegal efforts to increase its nuclear stockpile and conceal its activities. This North Korean house of lies is all par for the historic course – except that this time we’ve already given Kim a reward for his “commitment” to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, because we agreed to stand down on our joint military exercise with South Korea later this summer.
And the North Koreans are seemingly throwing it in our face. Last week, intelligence assessments leaked to the press indicated that North Korean nuclear production sites and delivery systems are not being dismantled, or even frozen. Rather, North Korea is making (and trying to conceal) improvements to its disclosed nuclear enrichment facility, Yongbyon.
According to an NBC report, the North Koreans are actually increasing nuclear fuel production at multiple secret sites. They are reportedly also exploring ways to deceive us about their nuclear inventory, including how many nuclear warheads, missiles and facilities they have. This is a far cry from working with the US in good faith toward denuclearization.
The North Koreans have also failed to live up to their commitment to you in Singapore to return US POW remains, despite your claim that they have been received.
There are also reports (no shock here) that Kim asked Chinese President Xi Jinping for sanctions relief just a week after you met with him in Singapore, and we should expect him to continue to push China and Russia – his two patrons – to ease sanctions. Translation: Kim is asking for rewards for bad behavior because he feels empowered.
But it’s not just Kim who feels empowered.
What happens in Singapore doesn’t stay in Singapore. The absence of any official statements condemning North Korea’s failure to at least freeze its nuclear program – let alone start denuclearization (or even return the POW remains it promised to repatriate) – signals to other adversaries like Vladimir Putin that you are willing to turn a blind eye to blatant deal breaking because you invested an enormous amount of personal political capital in the process.
Heading into your summit in Helsinki, Putin may think he can sign a general statement (like the agreement you signed with Kim in Singapore) on issues like election interference – then keep up the bad work and you will keep quiet. A public statement or response to North Korea’s ongoing illegal behavior could offset some of these perceptions ahead of your meeting with Putin.
Moscow mule: Putin’s stubborn and will hold his ground
Putin lies and denies seemingly as easily as he breathes. He lies about his interference in elections in the US and around the world (Putin definitely took note of your tweet last week in which you said Russia didn’t interfere in our 2016 election). He lied about Russia’s role poisoning a former spy and his daughter in the UK, and he lied about the presence of Russian troops in Crimea.
Well, he is fooling (almost) no one, and we assess that statements ignoring Russian malfeasance may lead him to think he can just keep going. Analytically speaking, Mr. President, if you aren’t willing to acknowledge his bad behavior, then he thinks he has little reason to stop.
Against that backdrop, in Helsinki you should expect Putin to be more stubborn than ever, including on issues like recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea. And this despite our policy since 2014 to declare it illegal and to use various tools in our toolkit to punish Russia, including sanctions and giving more weapons to Ukraine.
So, as you prepare for your meeting, know that Putin is doubling down on Crimea on all fronts. He has no intention to give it back or to use it as a bargaining chip to get something else that he wants. He came under fresh EU sanctions this month because Russia sent German electricity turbines to Crimea, which is one step closer toward new Crimean electricity generation – and this after Crimea was cut off from the Ukrainian power grid post-invasion.
Russian lawmakers are even pushing a bill to make the annexation of Crimea a public holiday, and a few weeks ago Russia literally built a bridge to Crimea as a physical and figurative link between Russia and the Crimean peninsula – in gross violation of international sanctions.
Putin’s going to stay stubborn, especially if you give him a public opening to do so.
Saudi screwdriver: It’s getting hot in here
Recently, OPEC member states agreed to raise oil production by about a million barrels a day. But nothing in life comes for free – and, if your tweet is correct and the Saudis are doing this at your behest, staving off a potential energy shortage and rising gas prices, you should anticipate that they’ll want something for it, particularly if they’re going to extend it past the currently agreed to month-long period.
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Of course, the Saudis aren’t saying increased production is because of the US and probably won’t do so, and the Russians (also OPEC members) are insisting that the decision had nothing to do with you. It’s all about the market, they say, and mitigating any impact that an oil glut would have on global economic growth.
Nonetheless, the Saudis are likely to ask you to assist in their ongoing battle with Iran. For example, they may privately request you implement sanctions on Iran in full in November and not issue any waivers for countries who want to keep buying Iranian oil.
They may also request you take actions that tighten the screws more generally in Iran, such as supporting anti-regime protests, and opposes their activities in the region, including in Yemen and Syria.
