Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst and a former spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his; view more opinions on CNN.
When our team at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe first heard of the downing of a Malaysia Airlines jet over Ukraine five years ago Wednesday, one of my colleagues predicted the incident would be a game changer – perhaps even triggering US intervention in the war with Russia in eastern Ukraine.
Surely a red line had been crossed. As CNN New Day’s John Avlon put it, the attack on Flight MH17, which killed 298 civilians, was one of the two “defining crimes of our time” – the other is the murder of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – and would not go unpunished.
MH17 was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014, one of about 300 flights that passed each day over eastern Ukraine. Many were long-haul holiday flights linking Europe and Asia.
About two-thirds of the victims were from the Netherlands, prompting some observers to label the MH17 downing that country’s 9/11. In proportion to its population, the Netherlands suffered a heavier loss of life that day than the US did in 2001. “This is the biggest war crime for the Netherlands since the Second World War,” Dutch TV journalist Jeroen Akkermans told a meeting of MH17 relatives on Tuesday.
But five years later, justice for the grieving families and countries appears painfully distant. Moreover, Russia, which has been implicated in the crime by the Dutch-led investigation team, now seems to have an ally in its bid to escape blame: none other than the country that owns the flag carrier, Malaysia. There were 44 Malaysians aboard MH17, including the 15-member flight crew.
By July 17, 2014, Russian “little green men” had already forcibly annexed Crimea and walked, mostly unopposed, into Donetsk and Luhansk in what was once independent Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Heavy weaponry was already widely in use by both sides, contributing to the current death toll of more than 13,000. In at least one of my weekly briefings as spokesperson for the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, I had warned that portable surface-to-air missiles were already in use in eastern Ukraine and could pose a threat to civilian aviation.
Thanks to the diligence of the Dutch-led investigation team, and the sheer gumshoe work of such outlets as Bellingcat, we now know beyond a doubt that much heavier and sophisticated weaponry had been secretly snuck into the war zone from Russia – including the BUK missile, originating from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, that brought down MH17 on that summer’s day.
“The Biggest Crime Scene in the World”
When my OSCE team of international monitors – referred to at the time as “the eyes and ears of the world” – arrived at the crash site on July 18, rebel leaders met us with hostility and derision. What we witnessed defied all logic: there was no perimeter security, bodies, some still strapped to their seats, were exposed to the elements under a punishing sun and debris and personal belongings lay strewn over several square kilometers. I described what we saw that day to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour as “the biggest crime scene in the world right now.”
In an insulting gesture to the more than 80 children on board, the commander of the area – an intoxicated Russian fighter nicknamed “Grumpy” – proudly posed for photographers hoisting a dead child’s toy animal.
With our help, sufficient debris was eventually collected and brought to the Netherlands in order to painstakingly piece back together much of 9M-MRD, the registration of the Boeing 777-200ER.
Russian rebels quickly recovered the flight data recorder, and through a very unusual secretly-negotiated deal with Malaysian authorities, delivered it to a delegation from Kuala Lumpur. I was told at the time that the negotiations happened so quickly that the Malaysians had to manufacture an official stamp on the fly to make the handover agreement official.
Fast forward to five years later and the Dutch feel the evidence is strong enough to charge four suspects – three Russians and one Ukrainian – on the basis they belonged to the chain of command that fired the BUK missile.
One key suspect, according to the Joint Investigation Team, is Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, who served as defense minister for the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. But Girkin and his pals have denied their roles. They are not expected to show up next March at special court near Schiphol Airport. Putin told the BBC that he “completely disagrees” with the findings of the MH17 investigation.
All the while the Russians, sticking to a familiar playbook, claim to be the victims as they continue to create a fog of doubt and confusion by accusing the Joint Investigative Team of bias and implicating the Ukrainian side for the shootdown.
In an astonishing statement last month, the Russian Embassy in Canberra said offers of cooperation are being “rejected and silenced.” It added: “This is unfair not to just to Russia, but first and foremost to the memory of 298 innocent passengers.”
Malaysia’s U-turn
The pursuit for justice certainly will not be helped by the fact that the politically-reincarnated prime minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, has begun to publicly question the evidence – even suggesting that Russia is being made a scapegoat.
“We are very unhappy, because from the very beginning it was a political issue on how to accuse Russia of the wrongdoing,” Mahathir said in late June after charges were announced. “Even before they examine, they already said Russia. And now they said they have proof. It is very difficult for us to accept that.”
I have interviewed Mahathir many times and even penned his political obituary after he retired after 22 years in office. He is a man of strict political calculation who nonetheless places the interests of his country above all else. But his defiant statements on the conclusions reached by the international team – which includes Malaysians – defy all logic. It is a shameful betrayal of the dozens of grieving Malaysian families who issued a press release on July 12 expressing “anguish” with contradictory statements from the Malaysian government.
The only explanation is that Mahathir is cozying up to Moscow as talks are underway to trade Malaysian oil for Russian military supplies. Mahathir has not publicly explained his change in attitude but a senior Malaysian diplomat told me Tuesday at a memorial ceremony for the victims that the Malaysian representatives of the Joint Investigation Team continue to support the Dutch investigators’ findings.
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Without the strong and unified backing of the international community, achieving justice for the victims of MH17 will be next to impossible. Russia will do everything it can to exploit any apparent disunity. If the thugs who brought down MH17 are allowed to do so with impunity, what is to prevent other terrorists from doing the same?
