Editor’s Note: Charlie Dent is a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who was chair of the House Ethics Committee from 2015 until 2017 and chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies from 2015 until 2018. He is a CNN political commentator. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.
Pennsylvania has two statewide, open seat races, with US Sen. Pat Toomey retiring and Gov. Tom Wolf finishing the second of his two terms. It is a highly unusual occurrence in the commonwealth.
The governor’s race has featured Democrat Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. Shapiro has run an aggressive, unifying, well-funded and error-free campaign. He maintains a nearly 9-point lead in most polls over the election-denying, underfunded Mastriano, who embraces wild conspiracy theories and shuns traditional media.
Shapiro has dominated the airwaves. What’s more, during an interview last week on the Real America’s Voice network, Mastriano falsely claimed the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia “is grabbing homeless kids and kids in foster care, apparently, and experimenting on them with gender transitioning, something that is irreversible.”
Simply crazy. Welcome to the Pennsylvania governor’s race.
It is no surprise that Shapiro, an honorable and decent man, has earned the support of many mainstream Pennsylvania Republicans like me and others who are mortified and repulsed by the Mastriano candidacy. Further, unless there is a massive GOP wave, it is hard to envision a scenario where Shapiro does not prevail, although this race may be closer than current polling suggests.
The US Senate race, on the other hand, is a toss-up between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Oz and Fetterman will debate on Tuesday for the first and only time, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for Fetterman, who suffered a near fatal stroke days before the primary election in May.
Questions have been raised about Fetterman’s capacity to perform the duties of a US senator due to auditory processing issues as a result of his stroke. All eyes will be on Fetterman, who will use closed captioning during the debate. Neurological experts have said people with auditory processing or hearing issues often use closed captioning.
Polling remains tight. Oz emerged from a brutal GOP primary that drove his unfavorable ratings high among Republicans as well as Democrats and independents. Republican voters have since come home to Oz.
He and his allies have been pounding Fetterman on inflation, taxes, fracking and the Green New Deal, a plan to wean the United States from fossil fuels and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Fetterman, an early supporter of US Sen. Bernie Sanders, has been attacked as a radical socialist.
But Republicans are counting on crime to resonate as a concern among Pennsylvania swing voters. Fetterman’s role on the state Board of Pardons has come under close scrutiny over his votes to release convicted murderers, including Charles Goldblum, who was convicted of murder after a man was stabbed with garden shears 26 times in 1976.
Fetterman has also been praised by far-left Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, the subject of impeachment proceedings in the capital, Harrisburg, as “effective in moving commutations and pardons in the modern direction.”
With a record homicide rate in Philadelphia in 2021, Fetterman’s opponents have interpreted this “modern direction” as a mass release of convicted criminals, including pardons for convicted murderers. In fact, Republicans are contrasting Shapiro’s votes on the pardons board with Fetterman’s in an effort to capture voters like me who reject Mastriano and question Fetterman’s stance on public safety.
Fetterman has waged aggressive attacks against Oz, cleverly trolling him over social media and paid advertising on issues such as carpetbagging, crudité, health care and Social Security in an attempt to portray the wealthy GOP candidate as out of touch with ordinary Pennsylvanians.
As expected, Fetterman has hammered Oz on abortion rights, especially in the Philadelphia media market where the issue resonates most heavily in the four suburban collar counties. Fetterman has also attempted to tie Oz to Mastriano and all the baggage that comes with him.
All things considered, there is a reason for Republican optimism. Republican momentum is building nationally as likely voters express concerns about inflation and the economy, and Oz is well-positioned to win. Republicans are surging throughout the country on economic issues, notwithstanding candidate quality problems, the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision on abortion, and former President Donald Trump’s unhelpful midterm interventions.
Pennsylvania also features three toss-up House races — in the Lehigh Valley, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and suburban Pittsburgh-based seats. In particular, watch the Lehigh Valley race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Susan Wild and Republican challenger Lisa Scheller, who runs a family-owned manufacturing business. It’s the seat I held for nearly 14 years and is among the most competitive swing districts in the country. CNN’s John King produced an excellent report on the Lehigh Valley’s Northampton County, a key national bellwether that may determine the fate of the statewide races and control of Congress.
All eyes should remain on Pennsylvania.
