January 14 - 2024 campaign updates

Our live coverage has ended. Read more about the 2024 campaign and lead up to the Iowa caucuses in the posts below.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley on Sunday brushed off Donald Trump calling her “not tough enough” a day ahead of the pivotal Iowa caucuses, claiming the former president and GOP front-runner attacked her because he “knows that he’s in trouble.”

“Everybody that’s ever worked for me or worked with me, no one ever questions my toughness,” Haley told CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday. “He’s saying this because now he knows he’s in trouble. Now he knows this is becoming a two-person race. So I know that he knows the truth. It doesn’t bother me at all.”

Haley, who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, told Bash she found the comments “comical because when I was at the UN, he always used to tell people, ‘don’t mess with her. She’s tough.’”

Recent polls have shown Haley gaining momentum in the GOP primary race, which has led Trump – who maintains a commanding lead in Iowa and national polls – to shift his attacks from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to the former South Carolina governor.

Republican candidates are making their final bids to party members ahead of tomorrow’s Iowa caucuses.

Severe weather has disrupted some of the proceedings: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was forced to cancel her Dubuque event and instead hold a tele-town hall.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump began the last day of campaigning in bitter cold Iowa boosted by new polling showing him with a dominant lead among Republicans in the Hawkeye State, as his closest competitors — Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — continue their jockeying for second place.

Here are some of today’s key updates:

Trump buoyed by poll and endorsements: A new CBS News/YouGov national survey has found the former president holds the support of 69% of likely Republican primary voters nationwide on the eve of the Iowa caucuses. Trump made an unannounced stop this morning to visit campaign volunteers phone-banking for him at the Fort Des Moines hotel. He also received endorsements Sunday from North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who dropped out of the GOP presidential primary in December, and Sen. Marco Rubio.

Haley endorsements: Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan endorsed Haley Sunday. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who has previously endorsed the former South Carolina governor for the GOP Republican presidential nominee, said that she could “post a strong second” in Iowa and New Hampshire. Haley has brushed off the new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll that found only about 4 in 10 of her supporters said they’re enthusiastic about their candidate.

Trump takes aim at Haley: Trump stepped up his attacks on rival Haley during his final rally before the caucuses, claiming she’s “not much of a Republican.” “Nikki did a good job, she was okay, but she’s not right to be president,” Trump said of Haley — his former ambassador to the United Nations.

DeSantis vows to stay in the race: The Florida governor said Sunday that he’s in the 2024 race for the “long haul,” despite lagging numbers in the final Iowa polling. Even with Trump’s significant lead in the polls, DeSantis told CNN “a lot of voters haven’t made a final decision.”

Ramaswamy predicts “late surge”: Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he believes his campaign is gaining momentum in Iowa one day before the caucuses, citing a string of recent endorsements and turnout at his events as evidence of a “late surge.” He also says he isn’t assigning much weight to Trump’s first criticism of his campaign.

Organizers voice confidence: GOP chairman Jeff Kaufmann has played a key role in Iowa’s caucuses for over a decade — and he has prepared for every possibility on Monday. He says there can be “no questioning” of Monday’s results at the caucuses.

Young Iowans pressed GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy on voting rights, immigration and his views on former President Donald Trump at a campaign event Sunday.

A young woman at a town hall in Ames, Iowa, pressed him on the constitutionality of his proposal to raise the legal voting age to 25 and to force high school graduates to pass a civics test or volunteer in civil service to earn the right to vote before age 25.

Ramaswamy said he thinks it’s “a good thing for every American to know the basics of our country” without addressing her question on the legal ramifications.

Another young woman asked about his immigration policy, specifically whether he supported family separation policies controversially implemented by the Trump administration.

Ramaswamy said he would not separate families illegally entering the country together and would instead deport whole family units back to their countries of origin, while also stressing the need to utilize US military personnel to secure the southern border.

Asked by a student journalist why voters should support his candidacy even as he’s supported Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican primary, Ramaswamy called it “a fair question.” He reiterated his long support for Trump but said that Trump’s candidacy is destined to fail because of his legal exposure and the strength of the political opposition against him.

“I’ve done everything in my power to push back against this, but at a certain point now we have to open our eyes, people,” he said.

Former President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on rival Nikki Haley during his final rally before Monday’s Iowa caucuses, claiming she’s “not much of a Republican.” 

“Nikki did a good job, she was okay, but she’s not right to be president. I know her very well, the wrong thought process, the wrong policy,” Trump said of Haley – his former ambassador to the UN.

“And honestly she’s not tough enough. She’s not tough enough. These are tough people we’re dealing with,” Trump added, describing authoritarian leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as being “very tough.”

Trump’s comments come as his campaign is closely watching Haley climb in New Hampshire primary polls. A recent CNN poll has her knocking Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, and the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses has her placing second to Trump, who currently holds a wide lead in Iowa.

Trump’s campaign, as well as the leading Trump-backed super PAC, MAGA Inc., have poured millions of dollars into adds in New Hampshire attacking Haley on immigration and trying to tie her to President Joe Biden. The ads are part of a larger effort to try and blunt her momentum in the Granite State.

“You can’t sit home. If you’re sick as a dog, you say ‘Darling, I gotta make it,’” Trump said Sunday. “Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.”

Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday endorsed Donald Trump for president one day ahead of the pivotal Iowa caucuses.

“When Trump was in WH I achieved major policies I had worked on for years (like expanded Child Tax Credit & tough sanctions on regime in Cuba & Venezuela) because we had a President who didn’t cave to special interests or let bureaucrats block us,” he wrote on X.

Rubio added, “I support Trump because that kind of leadership is the ONLY way we will get the extraordinary actions needed to fix the disaster Biden has created.”

The Florida Republican, once a critic of Trump when he ran against him in 2016, said Sunday “it’s time to get on with the work of beating Biden & saving America!”

The endorsement marks a stark departure from Rubio’s posture in 2016, when he told CNN that “for years to come, there are many people on the right, in the media and voters at large that are going to have to justify how they fell into this trap.”

But over time Rubio has softened on Trump, who has supported his previous reelection campaigns in Florida. Rubio has been careful not to criticize Trump – whether on the January 6, 2021, insurrection, his removal of White House records to Mar-a-Lago or even the incessant conspiracies and lies about the 2020 election being stolen.

Notably, former South Carolina governor and GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley endorsed Rubio in his presidential election in 2016, saying at the time, “If we elect Marco Rubio, every day will be a great day in America.”

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who dropped out of the GOP presidential primary in December, endorsed former President Donald Trump on Sunday at Trump’s last in-person rally before the Iowa caucuses. 

“Today I’m here to do something that none of the other presidential primary candidates have done. And that’s endorse Donald J. Trump for the President of the United States of America,” Burgum said at Trump’s rally in Indianola. 

Burgum, who had launched a long-shot bid for president, said, “Under President Trump, America was safe and prosperous, and tomorrow when you caucus, you have an opportunity to send a message to the nation and send a message to the world that Donald J. Trump will make America great again. Thank you very much, Iowa.”

“States like Iowa, states like North Dakota, heartland states — we had a friend and a partner in the White House who understood us and who wanted to see our state succeed versus being regulated out of business,” Burgum told the crowd.

Trump said he was “very impressed” with Burgum as he introduced him to the stage and touted his credentials as a businessman. 

“I was very impressed with him. He ran in the primary, I thought he was just outstanding and he’s got an incredible record,” Trump said.

Residents of Perry, Iowa, will caucus at the local elementary school Monday after the original location, Perry High School, became the site of a shooting earlier this month.

“Due to the unfortunate circumstances at Perry High School, we worked with the school administration to switch the site,” Terry Rich of the Dallas County GOP said in a statement provided to CNN.  

There has not been a date set for classes to return to the high school. On the morning of January 4, as students and faculty returned to classes after the holidays, a 17-year-old gunman opened fire, killing a sixth-grade student and wounding seven other people. 

On Sunday, high school principal Dan Marburger died after he sustained injuries in the attack. He was hailed a hero after trying to save students by talking to and distracting the shooter as the deadly attack unfolded, his daughter, Claire Marburger, shared on social media shortly after the shooting.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, after learning of Marburger’s death from a reporter’s question following a campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa, on Sunday, offered sympathies to the Perry community. 

“My condolences go to him and his family and everybody in that community,” he said. “What Perry went through, no community should have to go through, no parent should have to go through, the fear of even sending their kids to school, let alone parenting the victim of that type of tragedy. So, my prayers go out to the principal.”

Ramaswamy said he was in Perry hosting a campaign event the morning the shooting occurred, calling the day “emotional” and pledging to make schools safer as president in part by implementing his policy to put three armed security guards at every public school in the nation. 

GOP presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson also remembered Marburger as a “hero” in a statement Sunday.

“America lost a hero today. I know all of Iowa is suffering because Dan Marburger died from his sacrificial effort to protect his students. He worked everyday to improve the lives of his students and on that day, he literally saved the lives of students. This is a day to remember a great man and do what we can to help a community get through their pain and loss,” Hutchinson said.

Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann has played a key role in the state’s caucuses for over a decade — and he has prepared for every possibility on Monday.

He spoke with CNN Political Director David Chalian about training thousands of volunteers for tomorrow’s big event and how there can be “no questioning of these results” due to the transparency with which the contests are conducted.

Listen to the CNN Political Briefing here.

Former President Donald Trump disputed on Sunday that his team is adding campaign events in New Hampshire as a response to his rival Nikki Haley’s rise in the state’s polls, claiming he is confident about his standing in the Granite State. 

Trump, who made an unannounced stop to visit campaign volunteers phone-banking for him at the Fort Des Moines hotel, claimed his campaign is in “good shape” for New Hampshire.

He also criticized the Koch-backed political advocacy group Americans for Prosperity Action, which is helping the former South Carolina governor’s campaign. Trump argued the group is working to get Democrats and Independents to line up behind Haley in the Granite State.

“She’s not suited for the job. I know her very well, she’s not suited,” Trump said of Haley, who once served as his ambassador to the UN.

The former president predicted a “tremendous” win in Monday’s Iowa caucuses but warned his supporters against getting complacent. 

“The big thing, and I say that every speech — don’t sit home. Even if you think we’re winning by a lot, it doesn’t matter, you have to get out and vote. And we’re really setting the table for November by doing that,” Trump told the room.

Dive deeper: While Trump holds a large lead in the polls, undecided voters have been weighing whether his multiple criminal indictments and efforts to overturn the last election mean it’s time to move on.

On CNN’s podcast “One Thing,” Chief National Correspondent John King spoke to a group of Iowans about how they feel about the rest of the field, and examined what to watch for on caucus night.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said Sunday he isn’t assigning much weight to former President Donald Trump’s first criticism of his campaign.

Speaking to reporters after a campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa, on Sunday, Ramaswamy said he “doesn’t hold it against” Trump that the former president called his campaign “deceitful.”

“Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, ‘the best President in generations,’ etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks,” Trump wrote Saturday on Truth Social.

Ramaswamy told CNN that “I interpret it as bad campaign strategist corporate consultant advice that he might have received, and so I don’t hold it against him. … He’s been a great president.”

Ramaswamy has argued that Trump won’t be able to win the general election because of strong legal obstacles and political opposition.

When asked by CNN whether he believes the timing of Trump’s attack suggests the former president may feel threatened by his campaign, Ramaswamy declined to speculate on Trump’s intentions but reiterated his belief that his campaign is seeing a “late surge” in Iowa. 

“I can’t speak for anybody else’s attitude towards our campaign. What I can tell you is that you’d have to have your head stuck in that snow pile to believe that we’re not having a late surge here in this race,” he said.

Former President Donald Trump made an unannounced stop this morning to visit campaign volunteers phone-banking for him at the Fort Des Moines hotel.

Trump spoke for nearly 20 minutes and thanked volunteers, according to the pool. He predicted a “tremendous” win in tomorrow’s caucuses and urged supporters to get out and vote.

Asked about whether he was adding more events in New Hampshire because he was worried about former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s rise in the polls there, Trump said he was not and touted his commanding lead over Haley and the rest of the GOP field.

Trump then unfurled an American flag overlooking the hotel lobby.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Nikki Haley for the GOP Republican presidential nominee, said on Sunday the former South Carolina governor could “post a strong second” in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Nikki Haley is the only candidate surging in Iowa and in New Hampshire. The fact that if Nikki could post a strong second here, that is great, and we’re going to do that,” Sununu told CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

He said that Haley has a chance of “shattering the presumption that Donald Trump is going to run away with this (nomination) and that happens right here in New Hampshire,” adding that Haley also “knows how to win” in her home state of South Carolina.

Sununu noted that he plans to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee, whoever that is.

“With Nikki Haley at the top, she wins by 10 points. It is a fundamentally different argument because you get the Senate, you get the House seats and the governorships, you get all the way down the ticket, the Republicans win,” Sununu said. “Donald Trump is simply the weakest candidate and so, again, that is the opportunity that Nikki brings to the table.” 

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he believes his campaign is gaining momentum in Iowa one day before the Iowa caucuses, citing a string of recent endorsements and turnout at his events as evidence of a “late surge.”

In the final Des Moines Register poll before Monday’s caucus, 8% of caucusgoers said Ramaswamy was their first choice for president, putting him behind former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Ramaswamy told supporters in Ankeny, Iowa, on Sunday that he thinks he will defy expectations on Monday night and said he’s looking forward to “delivering a shock to the world.”

He was interrupted during his remarks on multiple occasions. During his prepared remarks, Ramaswamy was accosted by the hosts of The Good Liars podcast, a political comedy duo, who labeled him “smarmy” and mimicked his rhetorical style.

Ramaswamy also engaged in a series of tense exchanges with a voter who repeatedly interrupted his remarks to question him about his relationship to Trump and whether he would join a ticket with Trump as the vice presidential nominee. Ramaswamy told the voter he intends to win the nomination and become president. 

Long-shot GOP presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson on Sunday argued that it’s important for him to stay in the race to “alert people that we can’t mislead our voters” about the January 6 insurrection while also contending that Donald Trump is a “weak candidate.”

Trump “has redefined the Republican Party and not in a good way,” Hutchinson said. “What I’m trying to do is draw attention to the fact that Donald Trump is a weak candidate for us going into the general election,” Hutchinson said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Hutchinson said it’s “critically important” not to “mislead our voters and say January 6 was somehow a patriotic act. It was an attack on our Capitol (and) the rule of law in Congress.”

Trump has used anti-immigrant rhetoric as he seeks another term, telling supporters that undocumented migrants are “poisoning the blood” of the country. Hutchinson, when asked why Trump’s comments are resonating with GOP voters, said it’s because “there’s incredible concern about the border.” But Hutchinson said that he would not use such “inflammatory language.”

Hutchinson said he’d rather discuss immigration “in terms of what we need to do versus the pejorative rhetoric that really misleads people and hurts people.”

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin wouldn’t rule out a presidential bid on Sunday but reiterated that it will be clear by Super Tuesday if there’s room in the race for a third-party candidate.

“We have to see what happens on Super Tuesday. I think by then you’re going to know who’s in the game,” he said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” explaining that by early March it will be clear if a third-party movement can “make a difference.”

Super Tuesday is when Republicans in 16 states and territories will vote for president. This year, it takes place on March 5.

“I’m not going to be a spoiler — never have been and never will be. But people want options, or they want change. So you got to see what comes and by then I think things will hopefully sort itself out,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley canceled her in-person morning event in Dubuque due to “dangerous travel conditions” as extreme weather continues to affect the region.

The former South Carolina governor will hold a tele-town hall instead.

“Due to the dangerous travel conditions due to the weather this morning, we are unfortunately having to cancel this morning’s event in Dubuque. She will be hosting a Tele town hall. Be on the lookout for the link shortly,” the campaign said in a statement.

Both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s Dubuque events are still set to take place.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa on Sunday declined to endorse a presidential candidate a day ahead of the Iowa caucuses but predicted that former President Donald Trump will win the contest. 

“I do think that President Trump is going to win. We see such a large margin, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. So, we’ll see who comes out the winner here in the Iowa caucuses,” Ernst said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked if she plans to endorse a candidate after the caucuses. 

While she’s decided who she’ll caucus for, Ernst said she’s not “going to tip my hand to who I might be supporting.”  

The fourth-highest-ranking Republican in the Senate said she’s been courted for her endorsement by nearly all the candidates and did not rule out endorsing Trump if he wins the nomination. 

Ernst, however, said she was bothered by Trump’s use of the word “hostages” to describe people jailed for their role in the January 6, 2021, riot. 

“Equating the two, there is no comparison. Our Americans that are being held overseas, they are innocent,” she said, adding that there’s a “very clear difference.”

A new CBS News/YouGov national survey has found that former President Donald Trump holds the support of 69% of likely Republican primary voters nationwide on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, his highest level of support in CBS News/YouGov polling on the Republican nomination contest thus far.

Behind Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has the support of 14% of likely GOP primary voters nationally, with 12% supporting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, 4% tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and 1% former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. 

Half of likely Republican primary voters say their support is very strong and that they have already decided, including 64% of those who say they favor Trump for the party’s nomination. 

The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted online from January 10 to 12 among a random national sample of 2,870 adults, including 786 likely Republican primary voters.

The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, it is 4.7 points for results among likely GOP primary voters and 3.1 points for results among likely general election voters. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders called on President Joe Biden Sunday to “change course” on the administration’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war, citing a “horrific humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza. 

Asked whether he believes young progressives will support Biden in 2024 or abandon him because of his support for Israel, Sanders said the “choice is pretty clear” if Biden faces Trump, who Sanders said is “one of the most dangerous political figures in modern American history.”

“I think people will end up rallying around Biden, but there is no question: It is very hard for young people, I think for most Americans, to be excited about what is going on right now,” Sanders said. “(The) president has got to change course.” 

“You cannot give billions of dollars to a country that ignores your wishes, violates international law,” he said.

But Sanders said the president has been “very clear” about his concerns for the people of Gaza, citing Biden’s comments about “indiscriminate bombing” and pressure the administration has put on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to adjust the IDF’s strategy in Gaza. 

“I would hope that the president follows through on his concerns,” Sanders continued, calling on Biden to tell Netanyahu, “You aren’t getting a nickel more from the United States unless you radically change course.”

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said Sunday she’s not worried about the enthusiasm gap between her supporters and those of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis found in a poll released two days before the Iowa caucuses.

“I’m not a political pollster. I’m not gonna worry about the numbers. What I am gonna say is the momentum and the energy on the ground is strong. We feel it. We know that this is moving in the right direction,” she said on Fox News Sunday.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll found only about 4 in 10 of Haley’s supporters said they’re enthusiastic about their candidate, while the majority of Trump and DeSantis supporters said the same.

Haley, who captured the support of 20% of caucusgoers in that poll compared with Trump’s 48% and DeSantis’s 16%, said, “The only numbers that matter are the ones that were going up, and everybody else went down.”

“I think Iowans will decide intensity tomorrow. We’re just excited that tomorrow’s the day. It’s go time and we’re gonna keep crisscrossing the state. We’ve done that for days, now we’re going to keep doing it and I think the intensity will show tomorrow,” she continued.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan endorsed Nikki Haley on CNN’s “State of the Union” the day before the Iowa caucuses.

Hogan said he thinks it’s “pretty clear” that Trump will win Iowa, and in the “fight for second place,” he said, “Nikki Haley has all of the momentum.”

“What this race is all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for November. I’m convinced the momentum is with Nikki Haley,” Hogan said, pointing to a path for Haley to get “a distant second” in Iowa, possibly win New Hampshire and then have momentum going into her home state of South Carolina.

“Yes, it is time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley,” he said. 

Pressed by CNN’s Jake Tapper on whether he was endorsing Haley, Hogan answered that since he decided last year not to run for president himself, “I really did not want to see a multi-car pile-up that would just enable Donald Trump.”

“I think we want to have the strongest possible nominee in November. Polls show that that is Nikki Haley.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday remained confident ahead of the Iowa caucuses, vowing that he is in the 2024 race for the “long haul,” despite lagging numbers in the final Iowa polling.

“We’ve got a huge number of people that have committed to caucus, and we expect that these are the people that turn out,” DeSantis told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.” “We’re in this for the long haul. … We understand that that there’s a long process here, but we’re going to do well, because we’ve done it right.”

A new Des Moines Register/NBC/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday night shows Trump winning by the largest margin of any non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate and leading within every demographic group. But DeSantis told Tapper that “a lot of voters haven’t made a final decision.”

“Some of these voters appreciate what [Trump] did, but they do understand that there’s some drawbacks here about nominating him in 2024,” DeSantis said. 

While some DeSantis events were “postponed” due to the weather this weekend, DeSantis has pushed on with several events, including a gaggle in the snow outside of his Urbandale HQ, as a blizzard warning swept through most of the state. 

“Obviously, we want people to be safe, but we will be there to help people, if they need. We’ve already arranged rides for a lot of folks — this is just something that’s important,” DeSantis said.

Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses found.

Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.

Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.

Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’ has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.

In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump and DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.

Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers — 68% — say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump’s backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates.

Iowa will have its coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 Fahrenheit.

Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.

Add winds to this bitter cold, and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.

The first test of the 2024 presidential election is set for tomorrow, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.

The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half-century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.

Here’s what you need to know about the Iowa caucuses:

What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, held throughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.

Caucuses are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.

How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.

Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans. Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of “uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.

Read more about the Iowa caucuses here.