The latest on the Ukraine-Russia crisis

A White House official says Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will discuss a possible summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin when they meet later this week.

But the official added a word of caution about those discussions. 

“Blinken and Lavrov will discuss further if the invasion hasn’t started by then — in which case it’s all off,” the official said.

Another senior official added that no plans currently exist for a summit when it comes to timing or format. 

French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a second time in fewer than 24 hours, the Elysée Palace said in a statement late Sunday. 

The talk comes as Macron proposed a summit between US President Joe Biden and Putin, the Elysée Palace said.

Of the second Putin call late Sunday Paris time, the Elysée said: “The phone call between the French President and President Putin started at 11 p.m. Paris time (1 a.m. Moscow time).” That is 5 p.m. ET on Sunday.

The Elysée said the call lasted an hour. 

This is the second time Macron has spoken to Putin in fewer than 24 hours, according to the French presidency. The first call lasted one hour and 45 minutes.

Macron’s second call with Putin follows his conversation with Biden earlier on Sunday. The White House said Biden and Macron spoke for 15 minutes.

Context: President Joe Biden has agreed “in principle” to a meeting with President Putin as long as Russia does not further invade Ukraine, according to a statement from White House press secretary Jen Psaki. CNN has asked the Kremlin if it has also agreed in principle, but has not received an immediate response. 

French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a summit between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Elysée Palace said in a statement.

The statement said the potential summit can only be held “if Russia does not invade Ukraine.”

Macron and Biden spoke by phone for around 15 minutes to discuss the situation in Ukraine on Sunday.

The French presidency also said Macron had two calls with Putin on Sunday. 

The Elysée said Macron proposed a summit on security and strategic stability in Europe with Biden and Putin, and then with all other stakeholders. The statement did not name those stakeholders, but said Macron would work with them to prepare the content of these discussions. 

The Elysée claimed both Biden and Putin agreed to the summit “on principle.”

Biden has agreed “in principle” to a meeting with Putin as long as Russia does not further invade Ukraine, according to a statement from White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

CNN has reached out to the Kremlin to ask about the agreement in principle for a summit, but did not receive an immediate response.

The Elysée said the content of the summit will be prepared by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during their planned meeting on Feb. 24. CNN is yet to confirm this assertion from the French presidency. 

President Joe Biden has agreed “in principle” to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin as long as Russia does not further invade Ukraine, according to a statement from White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

This potential summit, according to an Elysee Palace statement, was proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron.  

The meeting, according to Psaki, would happen after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meet on Feb. 24. 

 “President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin following that engagement, again, if an invasion hasn’t happened,” Psaki said in a written statement on Sunday night. 
“We are always ready for diplomacy. We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon.”

New satellite imagery shows intensified activity among Russian units close to Ukraine’s northeastern border, with units that were in garrisons appearing to take up field positions.

The satellite images were collected by Maxar on Sunday.

Maxar assesses that “multiple new field deployments of armored equipment and troops have been observed northwest of Belgorod and near Soloti and Valuyki, Russia.”

These towns are within 35 kilometers (around 21 miles) of the Russian border with Ukraine.

Maxar observes, “This new activity represents a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments of battle groups (tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and support equipment). Until recently, most of the deployments had been seen primarily positioned at or near existing military garrisons and training areas.”

“Today (Sunday) most of the combat units and support equipment at Soloti have departed and extensive vehicle tracks and some convoys of armored equipment are seen throughout the area.”

The images show that encampments or staging grounds that contained substantial forces last Sunday, February 13, are now relatively empty.

“Some equipment has also been deployed east of nearby Valuyki, Russia in a field approximately 15 kilometers north of the Ukraine border,” Maxar noted.

Separately, CNN has geolocated several videos from the region over the weekend that show long columns including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers moving through rural areas in the Belgorod oblast (district).

“A number of new field deployments are also seen northwest of Belgorod (deployments are approximately 30 kilometers from the border with Ukraine) with much of the equipment and troops positioned in or near forested areas,” Maxar observed.

The images show extensive tracks where armor has moved across the countryside.

“Other company-sized units are deployed within farm and/or industrial areas.”

CNN has observed that some tanks and other vehicles in the area appears to have been marked with a large “Z” – suggesting they are being formed into a fighting unit.

Watch:

Video Ad Feedback

9eb5d6f6-9edc-4376-bbd7-7097de9c68e3.mp4

02:27 - Source: cnn

The Ukrainian Joint Forces Command has alleged that Russian-backed separatists launched “‘heavy armament fire’ against their own territory in an effort to ‘falsely accuse’ the armed forces of Ukraine and further escalate the situation.”

It said the barrage began at 9 p.m. local time Sunday and involved firing from Lobacheve toward the city of Luhansk. Both places are within the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) in eastern Ukraine.

“With Ukrainian defenders refraining from any aggressive acts that could possibly trigger a violent response, the occupation forces continue to destroy civilian infrastructure on the temporarily occupied territories and sporadically shell civilian settlements,” the command said.

“By doing so, the occupation forces once again demonstrated their cowardice and complete disregard for the lives and health of the local civilian population.”

For its part, the LPR alleged that Ukrainian forces were “firing artillery into the territory of the LPR along the entire line of contact, presumably they are preparing to attack.”

Ivan Filiponenko, an LPR official, said, “All along the line of contact, the enemy undertook preparations for an intended offensive.” 

The separatists have accused Ukraine of preparing for an offensive against the two self-declared republics, an accusation that has been denied by Ukraine.

On Saturday, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said it deplored “the spreading of disinformation about an imminent military action by the Ukrainian government forces.”

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke about the situation in Ukraine on Sunday, according to readouts from the United Kingdom and France.

In a readout of the call, the Élysée Palace said the two leaders updated one another on their diplomatic efforts involving Ukraine, including Macron’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where France said the leaders agreed to hold trilateral talks to reach a ceasefire.

“The Prime Minister noted that President Putin’s commitments to President Macron were a welcome sign that he might still be willing to engage in finding a diplomatic solution. The Prime Minister stressed that Ukraine’s voice must be central in any discussions,” a Downing Street spokesperson said in a statement.

“The leaders agreed on the need for both Russia and Ukraine to meet their commitments under the Minsk Agreements in full. They also underscored the need for President Putin to step back from his current threats and withdraw troops from Ukraine’s border,” the Downing Street statement said.

Johnson and Macron agreed to stay in close contact over the next week.

The US has intelligence indicating orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine, according to two US officials and another source familiar with the US intelligence. 

The intelligence regarding the order to tactical commanders and intelligence operatives is one of several indicators the US is watching to assess if Russian preparations have entered their final stages for a potential invasion. 

Other indicators, such as electronic jamming and widespread cyber-attacks, have not yet been observed, according to some of the sources. The sources cautioned that orders can always be withdrawn or that it could be misinformation meant to confuse and mislead the US and allies.

But the news of the intelligence comes after President Biden said on Friday that he believes Putin has made a decision to invade — a comment echoed by Vice President Kamala Harris and by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday. Blinken said the Russian playbook is “moving forward.”

“We believe President Putin has made the decision,” Blinken said Sunday in an interview on CNN. “But until the tanks are actually rolling and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward.”

The Washington Post first reported on the orders being given.

CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis contributed to this report

President Joe Biden is expected to speak Sunday with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron following Macron’s back-to-back phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, a source familiar said.

The exact timing of the conversation wasn’t clear. 

Macron is working to find a diplomatic path to avoid conflict, as reflected in the Élysée readouts of his calls today. 

Biden’s Sunday National Security meeting regarding Ukraine has ended, per a White House official. The meeting began at 11:30 a.m., a White House official told CNN.

Some more context: French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin agreed on Sunday on “working intensively to enable a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group to be held in the next few hours,” the Élysée Palace said in a readout of the call on Sunday.

The Élysée readout said the aim of the meeting would be to “obtain a commitment from all parties to a ceasefire on the line of contact.” 

The Trilateral Contact Group includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Per the statement, the two leaders agreed on the need to “give priority to a diplomatic solution to the current crisis and to do everything possible to achieve it.”

Evacuees from separatist-controlled parts of eastern Ukraine continued to cross into Russia through a border checkpoint Sunday, entering the southern Rostov region by car, bus and by foot, a CNN reporter on the ground observed.  

At the Avila-Uspenka border checkpoint in the Rostov region, residents leaving Donbas were greeted by representatives of Russia’s Emergency Services Ministry and members of a pro-Putin youth group in a makeshift camp.  

The traffic coming out of Donetsk was moderate with families driving in cars with Donetsk People’s Republic license plates and occasional groups of evacuees trickling in small groups of two to four people, mostly families with young children.

One evacuee from the city of Donetsk told CNN that her family evacuated on short notice after hearing shellfire early Sunday morning. 

“Everything happened spontaneously, we heard sounds of shelling around 1:00 a.m., I grabbed my baby and ran,” Irina, 35, told CNN near the checkpoint border crossing, after getting driven to the checkpoint and then crossing by foot with her 5-year old son, Danil. Irina declined to give her last name to CNN out of safety concerns. 

The local Russian emergency services set up makeshift cafeterias, toilets and showers, along with two rows of inflatable makeshift tents inside which some evacuees slept on bunk beds while waiting to be taken to other accommodation.  

Meanwhile, rows of empty buses waited to take the evacuees camps and sanatoriums in the nearby port city of Taganrog. 

“We left voluntarily, no one is making us leave and some people choose to stay,” said Viktor Ivanovich, 63, who gave only his first name and patronymic. He crossed the border with his wife in their car.  

When asked whether they were given instructions on when they might be able to come back, the couple said no.   

Local officials in the Rostov region have declared a state of emergency after separatist leaders on Friday ordered the evacuation of civilians from the region.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Russia’s Vladimir Putin agreed on Sunday on “working intensively to enable a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group to be held in the next few hours,” the Élysée Palace said in a readout of the call on Sunday.

The Élysée readout said the aim of the meeting would be to “obtain a commitment from all parties to a ceasefire on the line of contact.” 

The Trilateral Contact Group includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Per the statement, the two leaders agreed on the need to “give priority to a diplomatic solution to the current crisis and to do everything possible to achieve it.”

The French presidency said that “intense diplomatic work” would be carried out “in the coming days and weeks,” with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to meet soon.

The two leaders “noted differences in interpretation of the reasons for the deadlock” in the negotiations over the Ukraine crisis, an Elysee source said.

“Mr. Putin blames the impasse in negotiations on Ukraine, whereas the president of the Republic reminded him that Ukraine would not negotiate with separatists directly,” the source added.

The Élysée Palace said that diplomatic work “should make it possible to progress on the basis of the latest exchanges by associating all stakeholders,” in order to reach “a meeting at the highest level with a view to defining a new peace and security order in Europe.”

It added that Macron and Putin had made “firm commitments to take all useful actions to avoid escalation, reduce risks and preserve peace” to carry out this work “under serious conditions.”

Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby doubled down on the Biden administration’s strategy of using the threat of sanctions as a deterrent and rejected increased calls for imposing pre-invasion sanctions, saying, “[Russian President Vladimir Putin] has not conducted another invasion in Ukraine yet, and we still think there’s time to prevent that.”

“It’s supposed to be a deterrent. If you punish somebody for something they haven’t done yet, then they might as well just go ahead and do it,” Kirby added. “And we’re hoping that that could affect the calculous of Mr. Putin.”

Kirby said on Fox News Sunday that Putin still has many options on the table if he chooses to take a diplomatic off-ramp to the tensions, saying, “We have made serious proposals and talked about changing, for instance, the scope and scale of some of our exercises in Europe, being willing to talk about offensive missile capabilities in Europe. We have certainly put forward other proposals to try to convince Mr. Putin that we’re serious.”

Kirby made clear the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, however, is “an issue for Ukraine and for NATO. That is not something that Mr. Putin can simply institute a veto over or decide for himself, that kind of thing is again between the alliance and Ukraine.”

Some context: Kirby would not address individual claims made by Putin, but he characterized them as “outrageous claims” and said, on the whole, “these are just not credible.”

He said that Putin is “playing the victim,” which he said is exactly out of the “Russian playbook.”

“It is absolutely right out of the Russian playbook. He may be moving Xs and Os around the field right now militarily, but it seems like he’s using the same old playbook,” Kirby said, adding, “And I don’t want to make light of this analogy. This isn’t a football game. This is potentially war and lives are at stake here.” 

According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN. 

The concentration of forces within striking distance of Ukraine is highly unusual and part of the reason the US believes Russia is ready to attack, the official said.

This includes some 120 of Russia’s total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military.

US officials have reported that Russian troops combined with separatist forces could be as high as 190,000 deployed around Ukraine.

Some 35 of 50 known air defense battalions are deployed against Ukraine. In addition, the US estimates some 500 fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft are within range of Ukraine, as well as 50 medium to heavy bombers.

Together, the Russian forces now vastly outnumber Ukrainian military forces, according to the assessment. 

To note: CNN cannot independently verify the intelligence.

On Thursday, the British Ministry of Defense tweeted an assessment that said, “Russia has over half of its ground combat power near the Ukrainian border.”

President Sauli Niinistö of Finland told CNN Sunday that the world is “almost in a colder situation” than the actual Cold War era as tensions between the US and Moscow have reached a boiling point amid fears Russia will invade Ukraine.

“Then, we had at least some agreements between the United States and Soviet Union, limiting arms and so on,” he told CNN.” “Now we do not have actually anything, no agreements anymore. So, this makes the situation, in my opinion, much more vulnerable.”

President Biden has said he is convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, with his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, telling CNN on Sunday that the “playbook” for invasion is moving forward.

Recent shelling in eastern Ukraine and a vehicle blast in separatist-held Donbas has raised fears that Putin could be inciting violence to justify an invasion.

When asked if he thought an invasion would happen, Niinistö told CNN there were three possibilities.

“First one is that somehow they could settle the issue of eastern Ukraine, Minsk agreement and all that. I think it’s far away. Then second option is that we will see a full-scale war,” he said. “And the third one, which is as bad, is that we see this kind of, like I described, two steps forward, one back, that is increasing tensions all the time. And the third one might at the moment, I would say, that might be the nearest one at least.”

President Sauli Niinistö of Finland said Sunday that he is not afraid his country could be next as Russian President Vladimir Putin increases military buildup around Ukraine.

“We are not afraid not at all,” Niinistö told CNN regarding his country which borders Russia to its north. “Actually, the situation in Finnish borderline and in whole Baltic Sea area is now quite peaceful. We are not afraid of Russian tanks, tanks suddenly crossing Finnish border.”

Acting US Ambassador to Ukraine Kristina Kvien expressed hope on Sunday that Vladimir Putin could ultimately decide not to invade Ukraine, despite President Biden’s assessment the Russian leader has made up his mind to do so.

“Despite President Putin’s continued buildup of troops on the border, aggressive rhetoric, and now false flag operations and flooding of disinformation globally, we still hope and wish that President Putin would make the decision to take the diplomatic path,” she said in an interview on ABC.

Kvien said it would be an “easy decision” for Putin to choose to take a path laid out by the US in communications with the Kremlin, and “we’re hoping and urging him to do it.”

The US diplomat said she agrees with Biden and other top administration officials’ determination that Putin has made up his mind and is “likely” to move in on Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean his decision is final.

“It doesn’t mean President Putin can’t change his mind. But I do think that right now, he’s moving towards a large-scale invasion,” she said.

Kvien noted the refugee crisis that could occur in Europe after an invasion of Ukraine, saying it would be “destabilizing.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on CNN that he’s planning to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week “provided Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine in the interim.”

“If [Russia] doesn’t invade, I will be there. I hope he’ll be there, too. I will do everything I can to see if we can advance a diplomatic resolution to this crisis created by Russia and its aggression against Ukraine,” Blinken said.

He noted that the US “put on the table a number of ideas that we can pursue that would strengthen security” for Russia, the United States, and the rest of Europe.

“That’s the conversation I welcome having with Foreign Minister Lavrov. It depends entirely on if Russia invades or not,” Blinken said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN that the US is prepared to do everything it can to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine

Blinken reiterated President Biden’s concerns that Russia has already set invasion plans in motion.

“As we described it, everything leading up to the actual invasion appears to be taking place,” Blinken said. “All these false flag operations, all of these provocations to create justifications. You heard President Biden say this the other night. We believe President Putin has made the decision, but until the tanks are actually rolling and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was concerned about reports that troops from Russia and Belarus will continue joint military exercises past their planned end date as the thread of a Russian invasion looms large.

“It tells us that the playbook we laid out, I laid out at the UN Security Council last week about Russia trying to create a series of provocations as justifications for aggression against Ukraine is going forward,” Blinken told CNN.

Blinken continued: “We’ve seen that over the last few days. Now they’re justifying the continuation of exercises, exercises in quotation marks that they said would end now. The continuation indefinitely of those, quote, unquote, exercises, on the situation in eastern Ukraine, a situation that they created by continuing to ramp up tensions.”

Blinken noted that Russia has been “escalating the forces they have across Ukraine’s borders over the last months, from 50,000 forces to 100,000 to now more than 150,000.” 

“So all of this along with the false flag operations we’ve seen unfold over the weekend tells us the playbook we laid out is moving forward,” he said.

As Ukrainian authorities reported further ceasefire violations in the east of the country and top Western officials, including the US Vice President Kamala Harris and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, warned about an impending conflict, people in Kyiv weren’t giving up on leisure.

Across the Ukrainian capital, families flocked to the parks and playgrounds on Sunday, enjoying the winter sunshine and blue skies. 

This is not a city that looks like it’s on the brink of a conflict. Under the Motherland Monument, a 102-meter tall statue of a woman with a shield and a sword that towers over the country’s war museum, children were having great fun climbing up and down the tanks on display there. 

Across the river, in Dniprovsʹkyy Park, scores of people were spending their Sunday morning running, cycling and in-line skating. Nearby, on the sandy bank of the Dnieper river, children were happily digging in the sand, watching the ducks swim by. But the sense of pride and resolve, heightened in recent months amid the growing tension, remains ever-present. 

On the world-famous Maidan square, the site of the 2014 bloody protests, huge flags are still on display following Wednesday’s Day of Unity, a national holiday spontaneously declared by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

On a hill above the square, photographs of those who died during the protests are on permanent display.

The events of 2014 are known here as the “Revolution of Dignity” and those who died during them are referred to as the “Heavenly Hundred.” On Sunday, dozens of people gathered by the memorial wall, lighting candles, laying flowers and decorating the monument with fresh blue and yellow ribbons which are on display everywhere in the city.

French President Emmanuel Macron called both his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts on Sunday morning in a “last-ditch effort to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the Élysée Palace said in a statement.

Macron spoke with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for 30 minutes, right after a long phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the French presidency.

“The phone conversation with President Putin lasted 1 hour 45 minutes,” the Élysée Palace said.

The calls come a day after the French President previously spoke with Zelensky.

An Élysée Palace source had previously told CNN that Paris hoped to “construct a useful roadmap for the coming days.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has every reason” to see Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as unwilling to implements the Minsk agreements, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in comments Sunday on Russian state television. 

“If we consider all Zelensky’s statements in aggregate, it follows from them that he a) cannot, b) does not want to, and c) is not going to do this,” Peskov told Russian Pavel Zarubin, host of the TV program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.”

Peskov also suggested the Kremlin was prepared to disclose confidential discussions of high-level talks with other world leaders to counter what he described as deliberate and misleading leaks by foreign officials. 

“I hope that we will not live in a world where we have to read out the transcripts of the closed part of the presidents’ talks,” Peskov said. “But when it is necessary to prove the correctness of our president, we can and will do anything.”

Some history: In early 2014, mass protests in the capital Kyiv known as Euromaidan forced out a Russia-friendly president after he refused to sign an EU association agreement.

Russia responded by annexing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and fomenting a separatist rebellion in Ukraine’s east, which seized control of part of the Donbas region. 

A rare meeting between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French leaders in February 2015 sought to bring peace to areas of Ukraine that had been taken over by pro-Russian separatists the year before.

Those areas, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, became known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserted the two regions were in effect Russian-occupied.

The talks also aimed to work towards a political settlement for the region.

The result, Minsk II, was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the separatist leaders and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It was subsequently endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution.

After Minsk II was signed, the worst of the fighting stopped, and OSCE monitors moved in. To this day, the OSCE patrols the frontlines and reports ceasefire violations along the border. However, there is much less fighting and fewer casualties than in 2014-15. From that perspective, the agreement was, at least, partly fulfilled.

Even so, nearly 14,000 people have died in the conflict, and there are 1.5 million people internally displaced in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian government.

CNN’s Eliza Mackintosh and Tim Lister contributed reporting to this post.

Fiona Hill doesn’t know whether President Joe Biden can lead Western allies to ward off Russia’s threat to Ukraine. But unlike his predecessor, he’s trying.

“You couldn’t get a sharper contrast,” Hill observed in an interview. For the moment, at least, she sees Biden’s approach paying some dividends.

Hill has a special vantage point on this slow-rolling crisis that US officials say could bring war in Europe at any moment. As a White House national security aide, she advised then-President Donald Trump on Russia and Ukraine – and became a star witness in impeachment proceedings that resulted from his conduct.

Now, outside the government as a Brookings Institution senior fellow, she’s among the Russia specialists Biden has consulted as he revives foreign policy priorities shared by every president since World War II except Trump.

“Ultimately Putin wants some kind of deal,” Hill said. “They think Biden is the kind of president who could actually make a deal. Trump never could.”

Read the full story:

Fiona Hill, the former top Russia expert on the National Security Council, arrives to testify during the House Intelligence Committee hearing as part of the impeachment inquiry into US President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill in Washington,DC on November 21, 2019.

Related article Analysis: Former top Trump Russia adviser details the sharp contrast between the former President and Biden

The Ukrainian defense ministry has reported further ceasefire violations in the east, after a day of heavy weapons fire Saturday. 

The ministry said that in the first 11 hours of Sunday, “20 incidents of ceasefire violation by the Russian occupation forces were observed, including 18 incidents when the Russian occupation forces utilized weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements.” 

The Minsk II agreement led to a shaky ceasefire between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatist forces, and bans heavy weapons near the line of contact between the two sides. 

Ukraine said it recorded a total of 136 ceasefire violations on Saturday. 

The Ukrainian Border Guards said that because of the shelling one crossing point for international humanitarian organizations, Shchastia, at the Line of Contact had been closed since 8:00 a.m. local time Sunday. A UNHCR convoy that used the crossing point Friday said it had been caught in crossfire. 

Some residents of Donetsk – which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists – reported heavy shelling early Sunday. One woman contacted by CNN said she and her children wanted to move closer to the city center because of shelling in her district, Abakumova.

It’s unclear where the shelling originated. The authorities in the breakaway republics persistently claim shelling by Ukrainian forces, who in turn regularly deny firing artillery across the front lines.

The woman also told CNN that on Saturday her neighbors had left for Russia and had been accommodated somewhere near Rostov-on-Don in a tent encampment. 

The Russian authorities say that more than 40,000 people have arrived in Russia after being evacuated from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, according to the acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Alexander Chupriyan. 

“They are located mainly in the Rostov region,” Chupriyan said. 

CNN is unable to verify independently the numbers crossing into Russia.

The governor of the Rostov region, Vasily Gobulev, Saturday announced a state of emergency in the region to accommodate the influx.

The evacuation of civilians was ordered by the leaders of the breakaway republics on Friday, when they alleged that Ukrainian armed forces were planning an offensive against the regions. Ukraine has consistently denied any plans to attack the regions, which comprise some 7% of Ukrainian territory. 

Russia’s Investigative Committee says it is beginning an investigation into media reports of fatalities due to shelling in Luhansk region. In a statement, the committee said: “The media reported that this morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to attack the positions of the People’s Militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, while, according to preliminary data, there are casualties among the civilian population.” 

The Indian government has advised its citizens “whose stay is not deemed essential” to leave Ukraine as tensions with Russia mount.

“In view of the continued high levels of tensions and uncertainties with respect to the situation in Ukraine, all Indian nationals whose stay is not deemed essential and all Indian students, are advised to leave Ukraine temporarily,” read a statement from the Indian Embassy in Kyiv on Sunday.

The statement added that commercial and charter flights were available for departure and that updates would be posted on the Embassy’s social media accounts.

The latest announcement comes on the back of an advisory issued on February 15, asking citizens to “consider leaving” Ukraine.

Days later the Ministry of Civil Aviation removed all restrictions on the number of flights and seats between India and Ukraine that had been earlier established as Covid-19 countermeasures.

India joins a host of other countries – including the US, the UK, Greece and Pakistan – that have advised their citizens not to travel to or from Ukraine, as tensions flare up with Russia.

On Saturday, the German and Austrian governments urged citizens not to travel to Ukraine, and immediately leave if they are in the country, while the French foreign ministry advised citizens in eastern Ukraine to exit immediately.

CNN’s Xiaofei Xu, Inke Kappeler and Nadine Schmidt contributed reporting to this post.

US Vice President Kamala Harris told reporters Sunday that her trip to Munich was “a productive trip in terms of the extensive bilateral meetings that we had, that were in furtherance of the ongoing collaboration and partnership with our allies.”

“It was important, in that, as you all know, this is a moment that is very dynamic – if not every hour, certainly every day, there seem to be new moments of interest, and also of intelligence, and so we have affirmed, however, all of that being said, through these last couple of days, that this alliance is strong, probably stronger than it was before, and that this alliance has purpose and meaning founded on shared principles that are very much at play right now.” 

The Vice President, who will return to the US later Sunday, told reporters she will be participating in the National Security Council meeting on Ukraine later in the day with President Joe Biden.

Harris also offered some details on her meeting Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, pointing to $650 million in defensive lethal assistance already transferred to Ukraine and an additional funding in loan guarantees, adding the situation is a “dynamic” one, “and depending on what happens in the coming days, we will reevaluate the need that Ukraine has and our ability to support, and we have been doing that through the course of these many months.”

In addition, Harris touted a slew of sanctions against Russia, which she called “some of the greatest sanctions, if not the strongest that we’ve ever issued.”

“It is directed at institutions and particular financial institutions and individuals, and it will exact absolute harm for the rest of the economy,” she added

“The sanctions, are a product not only of our perspective as the United States, but a shared perspective among our allies, and the allied relationship is such that we have agreed that the deterrence effect of these sanctions is still a meaningful one… we still sincerely hope that there is a diplomatic path out of this moment, and within the context of the fact that that window was still open, although it is absolutely narrowing, but within the context of a diplomatic path still being open, the deterrence effect, we believe, still has merit.”

At her speech at the conference on Saturday, Harris promised “significant and unprecedented” economic costs for Russia if they invaded Ukraine.

However, Zelensky urged global leaders to make sanctions against Russia public before a possible invasion of Ukraine occurs.

As global leaders express concern around a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Michael Bociurkiw, said Russian President Vladimir Putin was weighing up “a lot of factors.”

Reflecting on recent clashes along the Ukrainian-Russian border with reported increased shelling by Russian-backed separatists, Bociurkiw said he had a “really, really horrible feeling” about whether the clashes could spark a potential conflict, informed by his own experiences for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The idea that Russia might create a narrative of an impending attack by Ukraine and use it as a pretext is now widespread, with US intelligence alleging that the so-called “false flag” operation could involve a “graphic” propaganda video.

“The West right now, the only real powerful thing they have in their arsenal right now is the sanctions,” Bociurkiw told CNN’s Michael Holmes from the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.

Bociurkiw said he agreed with remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who told CNN’s Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday that possible sanctions against Russia should be made public.

“I don’t think the Russians are taking it very seriously,” he said. “Hence, I’m leaning in with Zelensky saying maybe some of those sanctions should be unleashed right now, especially for example lifting those golden visas that so many rich Russians got in the United Kingdom, things like that. That type of thing would get back to Putin right away.”

Speaking at the security conference on Saturday, US Vice President Kamala Harris warned Russia of “significant and unprecedented” costs if they invaded Ukraine, vowing there would be a “swift, severe and united” response.

The Belarusian defense minister said Sunday that Russian and Belarusian troops would continue readiness checks following the conclusion of joint exercises, implying that Russian forces may extend their stay in Belarus.

In a statement released by the Belarusian military on Telegram, Belarusian Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin said, “The preliminary results of the completed joint operational exercise ‘Allied Resolve-2022,’ conducted as part of a comprehensive check of the response forces of the Union State, have concluded.

“In connection with the increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State [Russia and Belarus] and the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation decided to continue checking the response forces of the Union State,” his statement continued.

“In its course, the stages of the defense of the Union State that were not covered with such a degree of detail by the training questions of the previous verification period, will be carefully worked out. In general, its focus will remain unchanged – it is designed to ensure an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparations by those who wish us ill near our common borders.” 

Khrenin did not give specifics on the location of those readiness checks, but “Allied Resolve” drills began in Belarusian territory on February 10. 

French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak by phone on Sunday, as diplomatic efforts to avert further Russian invasion of Ukraine continue.

“Macron has become Putin’s most frequent person to have conversation with in recent days (in recent times). The leaders of Russia and France will talk by phone over the weekend,” Russia’s state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported in a Twitter post Saturday.

The call between Macron and Putin is due to take place a day after the French President spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had an “urgent” conversation Macron Saturday, where he discussed the “need and possible ways of immediate de-escalation,” as the US and allies insist Russia is moving to conduct an attack on Ukraine.

“Had an urgent conversation with President @EmmanuelMacron. Informed about the aggravation on the frontline, our losses, the shelling of [Ukraine’s] politicians & international journalists. Discussed the need and possible ways of immediate de-escalation & political-diplomatic settlement,” Zelensky tweeted.

Zelensky also told the French president that Kyiv won’t respond to provocations from separatists in the Donbas region, an Élysée Palace source said following the hour-long phone conversation.

The two leaders agreed on the need to find a diplomatic solution to the current crisis, according to the source. 

“The President [Macron] will take all the useful initiatives to ensure peace and security in Europe,” the source said.

For Paris, the important task now is to open talks that can guarantee the sovereignty and safety of Ukraine, and Kyiv will be included in these discussions, the source said.

“Nothing regarding Ukraine will be decided without the Ukranians,” the Élysée Palace source said.

Referring to the upcoming call between Macron and Putin, the source added Paris hopes to “construct a useful roadmap for the coming days.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with French President Emmanuel Macron during a video conference on June 26, 2020 at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow.

Related article Opinion: Is Macron the West's new Putin-whisperer?

Russia is planning “the biggest war in Europe since 1945,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC during an interview that aired on Sunday.

“I’m afraid to say, that the plan that we’re seeing, is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945,” he said.

He added that “people need to understand that the sheer cost in human life that that could entail not just for Ukrainians, but also for, for Russians and for young Russians.”

On the issue of sanctions, Johnson said the aim was to impact not just “the associates of Vladimir Putin but also all companies, organizations of strategic importance to Russia.”

“We’re going to stop Russian companies raising money on UK markets and we’re, even with our American friends, going to stop them trading in pounds and dollars that will very hard,” he said.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Saturday, Johnson said that in preparing to invade Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is “gravely miscalculating,” adding that Moscow would have “absolutely nothing to gain from this catastrophic venture and everything to lose.”

Johnson urged Moscow to de-escalate tensions before it’s too late.

Johnson said, “We don’t fully know what President Putin intends,” adding that “the omens are grim and that is why we must stand strong together.”

Johnson’s remarks come a day after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia was “moving into the right positions to conduct an attack.”

“They’re uncoiling and now poised to strike,” Austin said, speaking from Vilnius, Lithuania on Saturday. 

“If you look at the stance he is in today, it’s apparent [Putin] has made a decision and they are moving into the right positions to conduct an attack.” 

Echoing US President Joe Biden’s assertion that Putin had made up his mind on invading, Austin added that the US would pursue a diplomatic solution “until the very last minute, until it’s not possible.”

However, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has countered Western leaders’ heightened claims that a Russian invasion is imminent.

When asked about the aggressive use of US intelligence to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine, Zelensky said he was “grateful for the work that both of our intelligence has been doing. But the intelligence I trust is my intelligence.

“I trust Ukrainian intelligence who … understand what’s going on along our borders, who have different intelligence sources and understand different risk based on intercepted data… this information should be used,” Zelensky told CNN’s Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour in a one-on-one interview at the security conference on Saturday.

He continued: “We are not really living in delusion. We understand what can happen tomorrow … just putting ourselves in coffins and waiting for foreign soldiers to come in is not something we are prepared to do.”

Zelensky then called for international partners to support Ukraine by investing in the country. “Strengthen our arms… our economy. Invest in our country. Bring your business in.

“We are not panicking, we want to live our lives,” he added.

CNN’s Ross Levitt, Karen Smith, Maegan Vazquez, Kevin Liptak, Betsy Klein, Sam Fossum, Emmet Lyons and Lauren Said-Moorhouse contributed reporting to this post.

This post has been updated.

Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison issued a warning to Russia on Sunday, saying the world will be moving together to counteract any violence it may inflict on Ukraine.

“The world will be moving together to seek to counteract what would be a terrible act of violence, unprovoked, unjustified, unwarranted, unacceptable,” Morrison said. 

Morrison said there have never been any plans to deploy Australian troops to Eastern Europe, but the Australian government is working closely with international allies to support Ukraine in cyberspace and other issues.

Russian president Vladimir Putin holds a joint press conference after meeting with his French counterpart in Moscow, Russia early on February 8, 2022. International efforts to defuse the standoff over Ukraine intensified with French President holding talks in Moscow and German Chancellor in Washington to coordinate policies as fears of a Russian invasion mount. Photo by Dominique Jacovides/Pool/ABACAPRESS.COM

Related article Vladimir Putin has succeeded in uniting his opponents | CNN

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says all parties in the Ukraine crisis should work towards de-escalation instead of hyping up war. 

During his virtual address to the 58th Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Wang said territorial integrity and independence of all countries should be respected and safeguarded. 

In a virtual address to delegates at the Munich Security Conference in Germany Saturday, Wang said territorial integrity and independence of all countries should be respected and safeguarded. 

“This is a basic norm of international relations that embodies the purposes of the UN Charter. It is also the consistent, principled position of China. And that applies equally to Ukraine,” he said. “If anyone questions China’s attitude on this matter, it is an ill-intended sensationalism, and a distortion of China’s position.”

Wang added it is an imperative to return to the Minsk II agreement as quickly as possible, and that to his knowledge, Russia, the EU, and the US all expressed their support to the agreement.

As for the security of Europe, Wang said all parties are free to raise their own concerns, and Russia’s “reasonable security concerns” should be respected and taken seriously. 

“China hopes all parties will pursue dialogue and consultation to find a solution that is truly conducive to safeguarding the security of Europe,” he said.

China – which has its own tensions with the West – has repeatedly expressed diplomatic support for its ally, Russia as tensions over Ukraine have intensified. In a joint statement issued at the start of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping said both sides opposed “further enlargement of NATO.” Russia fears Ukraine may join the alliance.

A CNN team and other journalists accompanying Ukraine’s interior minister on a tour of the front lines in eastern Ukraine came under mortar fire Saturday.

No one was injured.

Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskiy sought cover as several mortar rounds landed nearby. Shortly after the shelling, he gave interviews to international media in Novoluhanske. 

About a dozen mortar rounds landed within a few hundred meters of the group.

Speaking to CNN prior to leaving the area, Monastyrskiy said, “We spoke with soldiers on the ground. The spirit is incredibly brave and all guys are ready for any scenario.”

He said that it had been his first time under fire. He told reporters that he was in the car en route and they had to stop every time they heard shelling and lay on the ground.

At a news conference later in Kramatorsk, Monastyrskiy was asked by CNN what role Ukraine believed that Russian military advisers were playing in the fighting in the eastern part of the country. 

“We have information about the advance of the Russian army along our territory,” he said. “There is also information that certain units of the Wagner PMC have entered our territory. The purpose of the stay is to organize sabotage in our territory.”

Some background: Wagner is a private Russian paramilitary force that has long been associated with the separatists in eastern Ukraine and has also deployed to Libya, Syria and the Central African Republic, among other countries.

The Russian government denies any connection with Wagner or other private military contractors.

Over the past few days, the Ukrainian armed forces have reported a surge in heavy weapons fire against Ukrainian positions along what is known as the line of contact.  

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said that through 17:00 local time (10 a.m. ET) Saturday, “70 violations of the ceasefire regime were recorded by the Russian occupation forces, 60 of which by using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.”

The ministry also said that two Ukrainian serviceman were killed and four wounded on Saturday.

The Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov repeated in a Facebook post Saturday that Ukraine had no plans to launch an offensive against the breakaway regions, as claimed by the leaders of the self-declared Luhansk and Donetsk republics. 

“We do not plan any offensives, but we will not allow the firing on the positions of our troops and human settlements with impunity,” Reznikov said.

The European Union has urged Russia to de-escalate by substantially withdrawing military forces from near its border with Ukraine and highlighted the “increase in ceasefire violations” along the Line of Contact in eastern Ukraine in recent days.

“The EU condemns the use of heavy weaponry and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, which constitute a clear violation of the Minsk agreements and international humanitarian law,” read the statement from the EU’s high representative on Saturday.

The EU statement went on to commend Ukraine’s “posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilization.” And it expressed concern at “staged events” that it said could be used as a “pretext for a possible military escalation.”

The statement from the bloc comes after Ukrainian officials raised concerns about expected “provocations” in breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, saying they expect Russia to be involved in so-called false-flag operations there.

On Friday, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had alleged Ukrainian forces would launch an offensive against them – which Danilov called “completely untrue.” Danilov was speaking soon after an explosion in Donetsk wrecked a vehicle close to the DPR headquarters. The cause of the blast was unclear.

“There is a great danger that the representatives of the Russian Federation who are there will provoke certain things. They can do things that have nothing to do with our military,” he said, and without providing evidence, added, “We can’t say what exactly they are going to do – whether to blow up buses with people who are planned to be evacuated to the Rostov region, or to blow up houses – we don’t know.”

Also on Friday, the German and French Foreign Ministers said they did not see “any grounds” for the claim from separatist leaders against Ukrainian forces, warning that “staged incidents could be misused as a pretext for possible military escalation.”

The EU also said it was witnessing intensified “information manipulation efforts” and expressed support for the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission, calling for the mission to be allowed to carry out its mandate without any restrictions. 

“The EU sees no grounds for allegations coming from the non-governmental controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack. The EU urges Russia to engage in meaningful dialogue, diplomacy, show restraint and de-escalate.”

The separatist-controlled areas in Ukraine’s Donbas region, are known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserts the two regions are in effect Russian-occupied. The self-declared republics are not recognized by any government, including Russia. The Ukrainian government refuses to talk directly with either separatist republic.  

The Ukraine crisis had a split-screen moment on Saturday, as the Kremlin put on a display of hard power and the Ukrainian president staged a charm offensive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin led headlines first, as he oversaw a major test of the readiness of Russia’s nuclear triad: The land-, sea- and air-based components of his strategic deterrent.

In other words, the Kremlin leader got to brandish his nukes. The drills were a classic key-turning exercise: The Russians rehearsed the scenarios for ordering the launch of a nuclear strike, with crews launching intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers dropping cruise missiles and a submarine firing a ballistic missile.

It’s meant to impress. Nuclear deterrence involves an element of theater, and Putin played the role to the hilt, watching the big screen inside the Kremlin situation room alongside his ally and close partner, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Russia’s nuclear drills, in some respects, were the icing on the cake of massive military drills that have taken place over the past nine days. The Kremlin has presented those exercises – in Belarus, on the Black Sea and in other parts of the Russian Federation – as a major test for Russia’s conventional armed forces.

But the Biden administration and its NATO allies believe, with high confidence, that those exercises are a smokescreen for positioning troops to invade Ukraine.

The United States estimates Russia now has 169,000-190,000 personnel in and around Ukraine, including Russian-led separatist forces inside the Donbas region of Ukraine. But despite a warning from President Joe Biden that Putin has made up his mind to invade Russia’s neighbor, Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky left his country to attend the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.

Read the full story here:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin

Related article A split-screen moment for the Ukraine crisis, with hard and soft power on display

Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of Ukraine-Russia crisis.

Several world leaders met at the Munich Security conference in Germany Saturday. The conference is taking place as the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine threatens to boil over and diplomatic efforts stall.

Here are some of the latest headlines overnight to bring you up to speed: