Joe Biden and Donald Trump won their respective primaries in Michigan on Tuesday, but a glance under the hood of the results reveals serious concerns for both campaigns as they pivot to a likely November rematch that is looking more volatile by the day.
Here are some of the takeaways from the 2024 Michigan presidential primary:
- November warning signs: Biden’s victory came with a warning from progressives, young voters and Arab American Democrats in the form of an “uncommitted” protest vote: Change course on Israel’s war in Gaza or risk losing a significant chunk of support in what could be a decisive general election state. For Trump, the roughly 30% of Republicans who voted either for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or on the GOP’s “uncommitted” line might be more difficult to parse. Though his third presidential nomination in three tries could be clinched in a few weeks, a sizable group of Republicans are either firmly opposed to him or still to be won over.
- "Uncommitted" campaign claims success: Supporters of the movement urging Michigan Democratic voters to check “uncommitted” said their campaign had been a success because it had attracted enough votes to get Biden’s attention. The biggest question is whether the effort will spawn copycats — and if so, whether those campaigns will draw much of the vote in their own states’ primaries.
- Time running out for Haley: She again failed to deliver the momentum-changing win that she needed — and her margins are shrinking, rather than growing, as time runs out. The Republican race is accelerating, with over one-third of the party’s delegates at stake in next week’s Super Tuesday contests. An underdog presidential contender’s odds only grow longer as the race shifts out of the early voting states, where retail politics make a difference, and onto the national stage, where money and momentum matter most.
- Disappearing Dean Phillips: His bid to challenge Biden continued to fall flat, as those dissatisfied with the president over his support for Israel in its war with Hamas chose to cast protest votes for “uncommitted” rather than supporting the only alternative Democratic candidate in the race. Even more embarrassing for Phillips: He was neck-and-neck with Marianne Williamson — the author and public speaker who ended her long-shot campaign weeks ago.