February 19, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

As Russia’s war in Ukraine approaches its one-year mark, residents in neighboring Moldova feel anxious over even more than the errant missiles that have entered their territory from the nearby battlefield.

Alarm bells are ringing in the capital of Chișinău and across the West that Russian President Vladimir Putin could seek to destabilize the Moldovan government.

Last month, the head of Moldova's security service warned there is a “very high” risk that Russia will launch a new offensive in the eastern part of the country in 2023.

On Monday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu warned of an alleged Russian plot to destabilize her government. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced "deep concern" Friday about the prospect of Moscow meddling with the tiny country.

And on Sunday, Poland's prime minister became the latest prominent leader to stress the need to protect Moldovans, saying Russia's "fingerprints" can be found all over the small nation, and that NATO allies "all need to help them" for the sake of stability in Europe.

Russia’s foreign ministry has rejected the accusations as "unfounded and unsubstantiated."

Why Moldova is important: Moldova sits to the south of Ukraine, relatively close to Russia’s front lines along the Black Sea coast. Importantly, it separates southern Ukraine from NATO and European Union member Romania to the west.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a handful of “frozen conflict” zones in eastern Europe emerged, including a sliver of land along Moldova’s border with Ukraine known as Transnistria.

The territory declared itself a Soviet republic in 1990, opposing any attempt by Moldova to become an independent state or to merge with Romania. When Moldova became independent the following year, Russia quickly inserted a so-called “peacekeeping force” in Transnistria, sending troops to back pro-Moscow separatists there.

This supposed “peacekeeping” presence has mirrored Moscow’s pretext for invasions in Georgia and Ukraine.

And concerns have only grown since the Kremlin began to claim the rights of ethnic Russians are being violated in Transnistria ��� another argument used by Putin to justify his February 2022 invasion of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine, which contained two breakaway Russian-backed statelets.

CNN's Elise Hammond, Uliana Pavlova and Michael Conte contributed to this report.

Three civilians were killed and five others, including three children, were wounded by Russian shelling Sunday in southern Ukraine, local officials said.

The shelling hit the village of Burhunka in the Kherson region, the region's military administration said in a Telegram post.

The three people killed were a mother, father and uncle from a family whose house was struck by the shelling, it said.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said he expects US President Joe Biden's visit this week to signal "strong confirmation" of the countries' shared goal of Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Biden “will reassure all Europe that the United States is with us in this fight for freedom and peace," Morawiecki said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation" program Sunday.

"I expect that there will be very strong confirmation of our resilience and our joint efforts to defeat Russia in Ukraine," Morawiecki said.   

Biden is set to arrive in Warsaw on Tuesday for the two-day trip, timed around the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The president will meet his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda on Tuesday to discuss Polish aid to Ukraine alongside the "important" logistical role Poland has played in getting aid to Ukraine, the White House said Friday.

The European Union's top diplomat warned Sunday that Ukraine's available ammunition is critically low, and Europe needs to solve the shortage quickly.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that allies have been taking up too much time with decisions on battle tanks for Ukraine, while the ammunition situation grew dire.

"Don’t confuse the short-term objectives with the medium terms purposes. Short-term, very short-term, more ammunitions to Ukraine," Borrell said, during a speech at the Munich Security Conference.

Borrell said the ammunition issue needed to be addressed in "a matter of weeks.”   

"The Ukrainians have a lot of applause and not enough ammunitions. That’s the paradox. They need to get less applause and better supplied with arms," Borrell said, of Kyiv's global reception.

He said EU has been slow in providing military aid to Ukraine and that future deliveries cannot be done by joint procurements, which he argued are too time-consuming: "We have to use what we have, what the member states have."

Some background: CNN reported last week that Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce it.

The US and its allies have already sent nearly $50 billion in aid and equipment to Ukraine’s military over the past year.

Yet NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that the “current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production,” which is putting “our defense industries under strain.”

Much of that strain is being shouldered by American defense contractors. Even as the US embarks on an historic effort to re-arm, there are questions about whether it’ll be enough. As Ukraine prepares for a much-anticipated spring offensive in the coming weeks, the US is still years away from reaching its expected level of increased weapons production.

CNN's Haley Britzky and Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham called on the Biden administration to begin training Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16 fighter jets “today,” in order to provide Ukraine with the planes as soon as possible.

The South Carolina senator said in an interview with ABC on Sunday that US lawmakers attending the Munich Security Conference were in “virtually unanimous belief” that the US should provide F-16 training, and that he believes President Joe Biden’s decision on the issue is “imminent.”

Graham urged the Biden administration to not be cautious or fearful of aggravating Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying “don’t worry about provoking Putin, worry about beating him.” 

Graham also called on the administration to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism following Vice President Kamala Harris’ remarks in Munich declaring Russia has committed crimes against humanity.

“You have to have actions consistent with that statement,” Graham said. 

The senator said Harris’ comments in Germany were particularly poignant given the historical context. 

On China's support for Russia: Graham said he was concerned with the US intelligence assessment that China is considering providing deadly weapons to Russia for its war effort.

He said “that would change everything, forever." 

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Sunday that he is “seriously” planning to create his own private military company (PMC), inspired by the Russian mercenary Wagner Group.

Kadyrov already has a private army often referred to as Kadyrovtsy, who are fighting for Russia in Ukraine. 

Kadyrov and Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin have been publicly critical of Russian commanders for military failures in Ukraine.

Some background: While the Wagner Group has played a key role in Putin's invasion of Ukraine, it has come at a steep cost to human life. The US government estimates Wagner has suffered more than 30,000 casualties, including roughly 9,000 fighters killed, during the conflict.

The group has relied heavily on convicts to fill out its ranks. "That doesn't show any signs of abating," a US National Security Council spokesperson said Friday, though Prigozhin claimed last week that he will no longer recruit from prisons.

"They're treating their recruits, largely convicts, as basically cannon fodder, throwing them into a literal meat grinder here, inhuman ways without a second thought," said John Kirby, the NSC official.

CNN's Sam Fossum contributed to this report.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby pushed back Sunday against some members of Congress who have criticized the level of US funding for Ukraine. 

Allegations against Russia: Kirby also weighed in on the crimes against humanity declaration against the Kremlin announced by Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday.

"We hope (it) will galvanize the rest of the world to likewise continue to want to hold — and to support investigative efforts to hold — Russia accountable for the war crimes and the atrocities that they are conducting inside Ukraine," Kirby said on MSNBC. 

"That designation, crimes against humanity, demonstrates that we believe that this is a systematic effort by the Kremlin," he added.

Read more about the crimes against humanity designation and war crimes prosecution here. 

SSecretary of State Antony Blinken said the US has concerns over China’s support of Russia’s military, specifically that Beijing is considering supplying Moscow with deadly weapons.

CNN’s Natasha Bertrand reported on these concerns Saturday, citing US officials.

“The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they're considering providing lethal support, and we've made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship,” Blinken said.

Blinken clarified that "lethal support" refers to weapons, among other items.

“There's a whole gamut of things that — that fit in that category, everything from ammunition to the weapons themselves,” he told CBS.

CNN reported Saturday there are signs that Beijing wants to “creep up to the line” of providing lethal military aid to Russia without getting caught, according to US officials, who would not describe in detail the intelligence guiding the US in that assessment.

In an interview with NBC Sunday, Blinken also declined to provide what evidence the US has, but said he believed it would be “out there soon.”

Officials shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days.

Aid for Ukraine: On weapons and equipment the US plans to provide to Ukraine, Blinken would not say whether he expects a policy change to greenlight US fighter jets. Blinken said it was challenging to train Ukrainian fighters on unfamiliar equipment, but reiterated that the US continues to engage with Kyiv about what they need.

He said it would be critical to to prepare Ukraine for what Blinken predicts will be its own counteroffensive against Russia.

The US government declared Saturday that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in its invasion of Ukraine.

The declaration marks the strongest accusation yet from the US as it seeks to punish Moscow for its war of aggression.

The US government declared last March that members of the Russian armed forces had committed war crimes in Ukraine. President Joe Biden has gone as far as saying that atrocities at the hands of Moscow’s troops qualify as “genocide.”

While the latest crimes against humanity determination is significant, it remains largely symbolic for now. It does not immediately trigger any specific consequences, nor does it give the US the ability to prosecute Russians involved with perpetrating crimes.

However, it could provide international bodies, such as the International Criminal Court, with evidence to effectively try to prosecute those crimes.

Here's what you need to know about a few key facets of this story:

Still looking for answers? Read a full analysis on war crimes prosecutions here.