January 14 - 2024 campaign updates

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said Sunday she's not worried about the enthusiasm gap between her supporters and those of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis found in a poll released two days before the Iowa caucuses.

"I'm not a political pollster. I'm not gonna worry about the numbers. What I am gonna say is the momentum and the energy on the ground is strong. We feel it. We know that this is moving in the right direction," she said on Fox News Sunday.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll found only about 4 in 10 of Haley's supporters said they're enthusiastic about their candidate, while the majority of Trump and DeSantis supporters said the same.

Haley, who captured the support of 20% of caucusgoers in that poll compared with Trump's 48% and DeSantis's 16%, said, "The only numbers that matter are the ones that were going up, and everybody else went down."

"I think Iowans will decide intensity tomorrow. We're just excited that tomorrow's the day. It's go time and we're gonna keep crisscrossing the state. We've done that for days, now we're going to keep doing it and I think the intensity will show tomorrow," she continued.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan endorsed Nikki Haley on CNN's "State of the Union" the day before the Iowa caucuses.

Hogan said he thinks it's "pretty clear" that Trump will win Iowa, and in the "fight for second place," he said, "Nikki Haley has all of the momentum."

"What this race is all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for November. I'm convinced the momentum is with Nikki Haley," Hogan said, pointing to a path for Haley to get "a distant second" in Iowa, possibly win New Hampshire and then have momentum going into her home state of South Carolina.

"Yes, it is time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley,” he said. 

Pressed by CNN's Jake Tapper on whether he was endorsing Haley, Hogan answered that since he decided last year not to run for president himself, "I really did not want to see a multi-car pile-up that would just enable Donald Trump."

"I think we want to have the strongest possible nominee in November. Polls show that that is Nikki Haley."

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday remained confident ahead of the Iowa caucuses, vowing that he is in the 2024 race for the “long haul,” despite lagging numbers in the final Iowa polling.

“We've got a huge number of people that have committed to caucus, and we expect that these are the people that turn out,” DeSantis told CNN’s Jake Tapper on "State of the Union." “We're in this for the long haul. ... We understand that that there's a long process here, but we're going to do well, because we've done it right.”

A new Des Moines Register/NBC/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday night shows Trump winning by the largest margin of any non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate and leading within every demographic group. But DeSantis told Tapper that “a lot of voters haven’t made a final decision.”

“Some of these voters appreciate what [Trump] did, but they do understand that there's some drawbacks here about nominating him in 2024,” DeSantis said. 

While some DeSantis events were "postponed” due to the weather this weekend, DeSantis has pushed on with several events, including a gaggle in the snow outside of his Urbandale HQ, as a blizzard warning swept through most of the state. 

“Obviously, we want people to be safe, but we will be there to help people, if they need. We've already arranged rides for a lot of folks — this is just something that's important,” DeSantis said.

Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses found.

Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.

Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.

Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’ has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.

In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump and DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.

Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers — 68% — say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump’s backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates.

Iowa will have its coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 Fahrenheit.

Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.

Add winds to this bitter cold, and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.

The first test of the 2024 presidential election is set for tomorrow, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.

The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half-century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.

Here's what you need to know about the Iowa caucuses:

What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, held throughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.

Caucuses are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.

How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.

Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans. Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of “uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.

Read more about the Iowa caucuses here.