Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday will make his first public remarks since the Hamas-Israel war erupted on October 7.
The widely anticipated speech comes as his powerful Iran-backed armed group has been engaged in daily exchanges of fire with the Israeli military on the Israel-Lebanon border, raising the specter of a regional war.
The skirmishes are the most significant escalation between Hezbollah and Israel since a 32-day war between the two countries in 2006. The hostilities began shortly after the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli bombardment of Gaza that followed.
The crossfire has so far been restricted to the border region. On Thursday, the skirmishes intensified, and the flare-up zone appeared to widen slightly, stoking fears of a broadening conflict.
Hezbollah is widely considered to be the regional wildcard that could tip the Hamas-Gaza war into a regional conflict. It is has a more sophisticated arsenal than Hamas, and its increased involvement in the war could rope in Iran’s paramilitary partners in Iraq and Yemen.
US aircraft carriers that were deployed to the eastern Mediterranean shortly after the onset of the war are believed to serve as a deterrent for the group, and much Western diplomatic effort has been expended to prevent an all-out war.
Nasrallah’s silence over the past three weeks has lent an unsettling ambiguity to the future of the region’s security. Many Western embassies, including those of the US and the UK, have called on their citizens to leave the country and have issued advisory warnings about travel to Lebanon.
Several airlines have also suspended flights to the country.
It is unclear what Nasrallah may announce in Friday’s speech, but Hezbollah-owned media have been effusive in their support for Hamas since October 7. Observers will watch the speech for signs of a new phase in the conflict, or modifications to the loosely defined rules of engagement that extend beyond the current tit-for-tat.
In anticipation of the address, White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Thursday, “Our message to him or to anybody else is that they're thinking about widening and escalating and deepening this conflict: You shouldn't do it.”
“Well, we'll wait to see what he says. I mean, I don't think he's calling in asking for our talking points. So we'll see what he has to say,” Kirby stated, adding: “We've got significant national security interests at play here. We've proven in the past we'll protect and defend them. We'll do it again in the future.”