February 27-28, 2024 -- Smokehouse Creek Fire in Texas

The extreme conditions driving the explosive growth of the Texas fires have calmed after a cold front moved through Tuesday evening, but they won't last.

Temperatures were in the 70s with 40 to 45 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 65 mph at the time of the most extreme fire growth Tuesday.

Here's how the weather will play out in the Texas Panhandle fire zone in the coming days:

Wednesday: High temperatures will be in the 50s with light winds. The winds will begin to pick up again this evening, creating new challenges.

Thursday: A very light rain and snow mix is possible. Any snow accumulation would remain below 0.5 inches. The high temperature will remain in the 50s, but winds will be stronger, 15 to 20 mph with wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Friday through the weekend: Dangerous fire weather conditions return as temperatures rise into the upper 70s, drier air arrives and winds increase to 20 to 30 mph, with even stronger gusts.

Human-caused climate change has exacerbated the hot and dry conditions that have allowed wildfires to ignite, grow and increase in severity in recent years.

Researchers say that as the planet warms, the United States could see an overall increase in the conditions that make wildfire possible, and could also experience a prolonged wildfire season -- even during the winter months.

A recent study that Yu authored found wildfire risk will increase by an average of 10 days across the continental US in the coming years, largely due to warmer temperatures.

Certain regions, like the southern Great Plains, including Texas, are projected to face more than 40 additional days per year of extreme wildfire danger as temperatures warm, according to the study.

Wildfires like those scorching parts of Texas now burn longer and are becoming hotter in places where they have always occurred. Globally, the number of extreme wildfire events is expected to increase up to 14% by 2030, according to a UN analysis. By 2050, the increase will climb to 30%.

The Smokehouse Fire has torn across hundreds of thousands of acres of Texas land since igniting Monday afternoon. Its explosive spread is tied directly to the dry, warm and windy conditions that dominated the Texas Panhandle Monday and Tuesday.

Since the fire started, it has spread at an average rate of 150 football fields every minute.

Fire spread depends on the availability of dry fuels -- like dried out grass and dying plants -- and wind behavior.

Abundant dry fuels allow a fire to continue to consume what's in its path unabated, but fires are not able to ignite or spread as quickly when fuels are damp or wet. The fire’s heat energy must be first used to evaporate water before it can burn through: It’s like trying to light a damp match — nearly impossible.  

Wind direction and wind speed affect where and how fast fire spreads. Wind gusts on Monday and Tuesday maxed out at 40 to 60 mph over the Texas Panhandle, allowing to fire to spread dangerously-fast.

Even dry areas located away from a fire are still at risk if winds are strong enough. Burning embers are easily lofted into the air and spread to unburned areas by gusty winds.

While the most extreme conditions fueling the flames have eased in the wake of a cold front, breezy weather Wednesday may continue to challenge the firefighters trying to get these blazes under control.

The Smokehouse Creek Fire has burned 500,000 acres since igniting Monday afternoon, making it the second-largest wildfire on record in Texas, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service.

It remains completely uncontained and is likely to grow further.

The largest wildfire was the East Amarillo Complex fire in 2006, which consumed more than 900,000 acres, according to Texas A&M.

The Smokehouse Creek Fire grew from a 40,000-acre fire Tuesday morning to a 500,000-acre monster as of Wednesday morning.

Since the fire started on Monday afternoon, it has spread at an average rate of 150 football fields every minute.

The fire has now charred an area of Texas land more than half the size of Rhode Island and 11 times the size of Washington, DC.

Multiple wildfires ignited Monday afternoon and exploded in size Tuesday, tearing across the Texas Panhandle amid unseasonably warm, dry and windy conditions.

The largest of these fires -- the Smokehouse Creek Fire -- burned 500,000 acres in less than 48 hours and prompted evacuations in multiple counties. Wildfires continue to grow Wednesday as firefighters struggle to contain them.

Many homes on the perimeter of Canadian, Texas, have been burned by the rapidly growing Smokehouse Creek Fire, Hemphill County Judge Lisa Johnson told The Canadian Record, an independent weekly newspaper in the Texas Panhandle.

The city of Fritch, Texas, is asking for outside help to bring their water system back online after a massive wildfire knocked out power.

City officials said in a Facebook post Wednesday morning that they need a 75,000-volt industrial generator “to help get our water back up.”

The town was previously urged to conserve water amid the firefight.

Fritch is near two active wildfires, one of which is the enormous Smokehouse Creek Fire, which has burned 500,000 acres as of Wednesday morning with 0% containment.

Parts of the town were urged to evacuate Tuesday.

The fast-moving fires in the Texas Panhandle have left some farmers and ranchers scrambling to protect their property.

"These fires not only threaten lives and property but also have a significant impact on our agriculture industry. We stand in solidarity with our farmers and ranchers facing loss and destruction. Our thoughts are with them during this challenging time, and we're committed to supporting their recovery efforts every step of the way," the statement continued.

At the Turkey Track Ranch near Stinnett, Texas, workers were forced to cut fences on Tuesday as they worked to move cattle away from the flames of the Smokehouse Creek Fire.

"We’ve lost cattle. Not sure what is alive and isn’t," said Katlyn Butler, whose husband works at the ranch.

"The effects of wildfire on the animal agriculture community can be devastating. Please keep those affected and those responding to fires in the panhandle of Texas in your thoughts," the Texas Animal Health Commission said in a statement Tuesday night.