Maui wildfires leave trail of death and destruction

The devastating and deadly wildfires in Maui are expected to have an "astronomical" economic on the island and cause a severe local recession, Moody's Analytics reported Monday.

The economic toll could run between $3 billion and $7.5 billion, according to initial estimates released Monday..

"The price tag is astronomical in the context of Maui's size, as annual output is about $10 billion," Adam Kamins and Katie Nied, Moody's Analytics economists, wrote in the research report.

While those estimates are smaller than the effects of past major hurricanes, they're higher than typical for wildfires, given the scale of the disaster and that it hit a fairly populated area with more "ferocity" than many events in California and other states, economists wrote.

The lion's share of the economic impact for Maui is driven by property damage, with about $1 billion being attributed to lost output. Initial estimates suggest that more than 2,000 buildings were either destroyed or damaged, Kamins and Nied noted.

"With the median single-family house price in Maui just above $1 million, the effect on the housing stock alone pulls the estimate into the billions," they wrote. "Combine this with the loss of a couple of hotels and numerous retail shops, most of which are more highly valued than the typical home on the island, and the number climbs considerably."

They noted vehicle losses and infrastructure damage accounted for most of the rest of the total. The economic impact could have gone much higher had the fire spread to areas outside of Lahaina, where most of the major resorts are located, they added.

In the medium-term, however, the damage from the fires is expected to drive up house prices in what is already the nation's second-least affordable metro area, according to the report.

In the near-term, the heavily relied-upon tourism income will be severely affected, they noted, adding that the approximately $20 million in daily visitors' spending will be at risk for at least the next few weeks -- if not longer. Job losses will be significant; local and state coffers will take hits from the lost revenue; and a "brief but severe local recession" is anticipated, they added.

The risks extend beyond the island of Maui.

"Many visitors to Hawaii are known to travel to more than one island, which means that the cancellation of entire itineraries will have ripple effects beyond Maui," they wrote. "Some would-be travelers could also paint all of the Hawaiian Islands with the same broad brush and shy away from visiting, especially after volcanic eruptions on the Big Island in recent years."

Carole Hartley, 60, originally from Grand Bay, Alabama, has been identified as one of the victims of the Lahaina fire, according to her sister Donna Gardner Hartley.

Hartley and her partner, Charles Paxton, were trying to evacuate when the smoke from the fire overwhelmed the couple and they got separated, Gardner Hartley told CNN.

Paxton was eventually found by his friends and organized a search party to look for Hartley after he was treated for his injuries, Hartley’s sister said. 

Over the weekend, the search group found Hartley’s remains on the couple’s property, Gardner Hartley told CNN.

Hartley was “smart and resourceful,” Gardner Hartley said.

The wildfires that tore through the island of Maui and killed 96 people so far, will be “heavily studied” by climate experts as well as US federal research agencies, scientists said.

“There will be lots of research that will come out of NOAA in understanding specifically what caused this and the events that we've seen,” Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in a call with reporters Monday.

Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said there are locally specific precursors and long-term effects that have contributed to the fires, including an ongoing dry spell and the proliferation of nonnative grasses — but climate change may very well have played a role.

“In this particular example, how much of a contribution [climate change had], that is going to be something that we're going to be looking at very carefully in the future,” Schmidt added.

The call, which was hosted jointly by NASA and NOAA officials, outlined the latest climate data, in which the planet marked its hottest July in 174 years. The average global temperature in July — the hottest month on record by far — was around 1.8 degrees Celsius warmer than the historical average, experts on the call said.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed there are no plans in place for President Joe Biden to visit Hawaii after wildfires over the weekend on Maui left at least 96 dead.

Pressed on if Biden will address the wildfires, Jean Pierre said, “Certainly you'll hear from him, you know, continuously this week," but she added that she does not have new comments from the president.

“But look, this is something that the president clearly is deeply concerned about, that is why you heard we had the (Criswell) Zoom in right, literally from where she is in Hawaii to talk directly to all of you, to take your questions…and look, you're going to continue to certainly to hear from us on this issue,” Jean Pierre said.

The Biden administration is committed to supporting Hawaii "every step of the way" following the deadly Maui wildfires, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administrator Deanne Criswell said Monday.

The FEMA administrator told reporters she’s been “in continuous communication with the president since these fires started,” adding she’s been giving Biden “and his team updates, letting him know what the federal family is doing to support everything that Gov. (Josh) Green has asked for.” 

Pressed if President Joe Biden plans to visit Maui to survey damage from the wildfires on the island, Criswell declined to say if there was a visit from the president scheduled. 

“Right now, our focus is on making sure that we are doing everything we can to account for everybody that has been unaccounted for — and the President has given me the space to make sure I'm bringing in all of the appropriate federal personnel and resources to do that ... We want to make sure that they have, you know, all of the resources and the space that they need and not disrupt operations right now," she said.

Later on in the briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed there are no plans in place for Biden to visit Hawaii after the wildfires.

Criswell, who arrived on the ground in Hawaii in the early hours of Saturday morning, highlighted the federal response, noting the FEMA activated its transitional sheltering assistance program while partnering with AirBnB and hotels to “make sure that everyone finds a temporary solution as they begin to develop their plans for rebuilding.” 

And she touted “a whole of government approach,” from “dozens of our partner agencies to make sure that we have all of the right resources to support the recovery needs for this area and to make sure that we are successful in providing relief to survivors.” 

As part of those efforts, she pointed to work with local partners “to ensure that our outreach and our messaging is also culturally responsive, and that we can get messages out to people so they know what is available to them.”

Franklin “Frankie” Trejos, 68, tried to help others and save his home from burning down before he died trying to escape the Lahaina fire, his niece, Kika Perez Grant, told CNN.

After the fire, Perez Grant said the family received a call from Trejos’ roommate letting them know that the island had been on fire and that he wasn’t sure if Trejos had made it out alive.

According to Trejo’s niece, her uncle and his roommate tried to save their property at first but then decided to evacuate when they realized it was impossible. 

“They both got in their own cars and tried to evacuate. For some reason, his roommate’s car didn’t start, so he crawled around until someone found him. He got badly burned,” Perez Grant said. 

Trejos' roommate then went back to search for Trejo's car and found the car a few blocks away from the house. Trejos' remains were found on top of his roommate's dog who also died, Perez Grant said.

Trejos, who was a native of Costa Rica but had moved to the United States at a young age, has lived in Lahaina for the last thirty years, according to his niece.

More members of the Hawaii National Guard have been activated to respond to the wildfires on Maui, the Pentagon said, and Indo-Pacific Command remains poised to respond should a request for more aid come in. 

The Hawaii National Guard has now activated a total of approximately 250 guard members, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said in a briefing Monday.

The National Guard are working with the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and helping local law enforcement.

CNN reported last week that two Army National Guard heavy-lift Chinook helicopters are helping with wildlife response operations and the search and recovery teams. To date, crews have dropped more than 189,000 gallons of water to support firefighting efforts.

The US Army Corps of Engineers has also sent debris removal experts and temporary power experts to Maui, Ryder said.

The Army Reserve is also helping the Red Cross by providing additional space at a center in Maui. 

Despite a substantial military presence in Hawaii, including the headquarters of Indo-Pacific Command, there has not yet been a request for a larger active-duty response, Ryder said.

“FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and the Hawaiian Emergency Management Agency, as they put together their response in terms of what’s needed, INDO-PACOM is on a hair trigger to be able to support as necessary, and so we’re going to do that,” Ryder said at the briefing.

Ryder said the Defense Department was coordinating with FEMA and other emergency response agencies to avoid a situation in which military assets flowed in unnecessarily and created logistics problems in a disaster situation.

“Obviously FEMA has a lot of experience in these types of situations,” Ryder said. “We’re going to work closely to make sure we’re getting folks what they need.”

Several firefighters trying to contain the flames quickly approaching the historic town of Lahaina last week have described weak water pressure and fire hydrants running dry, complicating an already perilous operation.

“There was just no water in the hydrants,” Keahi Ho, one of the firefighters working in Lahaina told the New York Times. 

Another firefighter, unnamed by the paper because he was not authorized to discuss the operation, said his truck connected to a hydrant but the water pressure was too weak to be of use and the flames grew and spread beyond their ability to contain them.

A third firefighter told the New York Times that when he arrived, he was told there was no water to fight the fires and crews pivoted to prioritize evacuations.

Ho, speaking to CNN, gave a statement, but wouldn’t elaborate on his comments to the paper.

Maui County Department of Water Supply Director John Stufflebean told the New York Times that backup generators were in use to maintain the water supply, but as the fire spread, “water was leaking out of the system." That water was flowing out of their melted pipes as the fire damaged properties.

CNN has reached out to the Maui County Department of Water Supply for more information and comment.

Hawaiian Electric’s stock tumbled to a 13-year low Monday morning, plummeting nearly 40% after a class-action lawsuit filed over the weekend alleged that Maui’s devastating wildfires were caused by the utility’s energized power lines that were knocked down by strong winds.

The utility says it provides power to 95% of the state’s residents.

The suit alleges that Hawaiian Electric Industries “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started,” despite knowing the risks of sparking a fire in those conditions.

The company and subsidiaries “also chose not to deenergize their power lines after they knew some poles and lines had fallen and were in contact with the vegetation or the ground,” the suit alleges.

It has not yet been determined what started the wildfire.

Read more about the Hawaiian Electric's stocks following the lawsuit.