For weeks, Lebanon was preparing for war. People spoke about their backup plans in hushed tones. The government said it was putting together contingency supplies for the public’s basic necessities.
It all hinged on Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s thinking about the Hamas-Israel war, which he kept close to his chest before breaking his nearly month-long silence about October 7 on Friday.
In a fiery speech from an undisclosed location, the reclusive head of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group heaped praise on Hamas and hailed the war as a “turning point” in the Arab-Israeli conflict. He extolled the virtues of the weekslong cross-fire with Israel on Lebanon’s southern border, which he described as an “unprecedented battle.”
He also said Hezbollah would be "prepared for all scenarios,” and that any escalation by the Israeli army at the border would be a "historic folly" that would prompt a major response.
Yet for all the tough talk, Nasrallah was not banging war drums. He said Hezbollah’s “primary goal” was to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, and said it was incumbent on the US — which he held directly responsible for the bloodshed in the Palestinian enclave — to implement the cessation of hostilities.
What this tells us is that Nasrallah’s immediate plans do not include a broader conflict.
This may come as a disappointment to many in the Arab street. When the pro-Palestinian demonstrations washed over much of the region in recent weeks, many of the chants called on Nasrallah to go to war.
But it will be a relief to Israel’s Western allies, who fear a wider regional conflict and have repeatedly warned Nasrallah not to enter the fray. Two US aircraft carriers — including the nuclear-power USS Gerald Ford — were dispatched to the Mediterranean in an apparent bid to deter Hezbollah.
That relief will be shared by many in Lebanon. The tiny eastern Mediterranean country has barely recovered from the devastating economic crisis of 2019, and much of the population — while horrified by the soaring death toll and widespread destruction wrought by Israel’s offensive in Gaza — has been worn down by decades of war and crises.
Nasrallah may have been restrained by that popular sentiment, or he may have concluded, after weeks of deliberation, that his powerful paramilitary has too much to lose in a war with Israel.
