May 18, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said the next two months will be “decisive” when it comes to the future of the Black Sea grain deal, which allows the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports. 

“Taking into account the whole range of circumstances, and taking into account the appeals of our partners, we supported the initiative of President Erdogan when he proposed extending this deal for another two months, with a clear understanding that these two months will be decisive,” Lavrov said at a news conference with his Ugandan counterpart in Moscow. 

Moscow has agreed to a two-month extension of the Black Sea grain deal, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Thursday after talks on easing restrictions on Russian agricultural exports.

“We can confirm that the Russian side has also decided to continue this so-called Black Sea deal for a period of two months," Peskov told reporters.

He described it as a "relative result” for Russia, adding that the pact’s fate was, “in the hands of those with whom the UN must agree on its Russian part.”

Russia had previously threatened to pull out of the deal, complaining that a separate agreement with the UN to facilitate shipments of Russian grain and fertilizers, brokered as part of the negotiations on the deal last July, was not being adhered to.  

What is the Black Sea grain deal?: The deal was first established in July 2022 to ensure the safe exportation of Ukrainian grain amidst Russian blockades of Ukrainian ports. The deal – which the United Nations and Turkey helped broker – was set to expire on Wednesday before it was renewed.

According to the European Commission, Ukraine accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market and 13% of the barley market. It is also a key global player in the market of sunflower oil.

Should the deal not have been renewed, food security around the world would have been jeopardized. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) wrote on Tuesday that as much as 90% of imports into East African countries are shipments supported by the grain deal. If these imports were to stop, there would be a “spike in the number of undernourished people” to almost 19 million in 2023, the IRC said.

The new deal will now be in effect until July 18.

Moscow claimed on Thursday that it had struck “foreign-made weapons and equipment” depots in overnight strikes on Ukraine using “high-precision” missiles. 

The Russian defense ministry said in its daily briefing: “Today, during the night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out group strikes with long-range, sea- and air-based high-precision weapons against large warehouses of foreign-made weapons and equipment, as well as enemy reserves. The target has been reached. All assigned objects are hit.”

Some context: Ukraine earlier claimed it had intercepted 29 out of 30 Russian missiles that were fired overnight, including over the capital Kyiv. At least one person was killed in the southern port city of Odesa after debris from an intercepted missile fell on industrial buildings.

Russia has continued its bombardment of multiple sites in Ukraine, killing one civilian in Odesa and leaving Kyiv’s air sirens blaring. But on the front lines, Ukraine is continuing to make significant gains, raising speculation that its counteroffensive may well be underway.

Here are the latest developments:

Trains between Crimea's two largest cities have been halted after a freight train derailed Thursday, according to Russia-backed authorities.

In a Telegram post, Crimean Railways announced the suspension of services on the Simferopol to Sevastopol line after the train was derailed by the "intervention of unauthorized persons.”

There were no casualties, it added.

Sergey Aksenov, the Moscow-appointed head of the peninsula, said on Telegram that wagons carrying grain "fell off the rails" in Simferopol. He later added that authorities were investigating.

Ukraine has not commented on the incident.

Some context: The Ukrainian military has in recent months carried out attacks in Crimea to harass the Russian Black Sea fleet and disrupt vital Russian supply lines. Ukrainian leaders have previously stated that their goal is to recapture Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

Ukraine’s capital has seen nine attempted Russian missile strikes so far this month. Despite this, Kyiv claims to have escaped with barely a scratch, denying that any of Moscow’s missiles or drones hit their targets. NATO-provided air defense systems are the likely reason behind this, intercepting the weapons before they are able to inflict their intended damage. 

Most Kyiv residents have no way of knowing for sure that the sudden, terrifying loud bangs are the Ukrainian air defense systems taking down Russian missiles, rather than rockets hitting their city.

On Tuesday morning, Kyiv was hit by an “exceptional” dense attack, according to Serhiy Popko, head of the Kyiv city military administration.

Liudmyla Kravchenko spent most of the strikes sheltering in her corridor with her husband and their two children. 

She said her 1-year-old son Artem slept in her arms as they were waiting for the attack to end. Her 9-year-old daughter is now so used to air raids that she knows “to drop everything and take cover” when her parents tell her to.

Read our full report here.

For weeks, a question has hung over the war: When will Ukraine launch its long-anticipated counteroffensive?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has tried to pour cold water on the matter on a number of occasions, claiming that his forces needed “a bit more time” to wait for equipment to arrive. But his claims are increasingly hard to square with events on the ground.

Over five weeks reporting along the southern frontlines, it became hard to conceive that -- at least in its limited, preparatory stages — Ukraine’s counteroffensive had not got underway in late April.

The relentless pinpoint bombing of Russian military targets, the hints of small Ukrainian landings along the occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River and the blasts hitting fuel depots and infrastructure inside Russia’s own borders and in occupied cities – these could all be seen as indicators.

The signs have gathered in pace over the past month, and are the opening traces of the “shaping operations” that a senior US official told CNN began last week. Yet officially, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has yet to start.

Announcing the start is entirely in the gift of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Declare the operation underway, and the clock ticks immediately for the first results. Say it has yet to get underway, and any mounting losses Russia sustains are just in the cut and thrust of normal frontline attrition. 

But should we not read too much into Zelensky’s obfuscatory comments – and look instead for tangible results on the battlefield? 

Read the full analysis here.

The European Union is not planning on formally sanctioning Russia's state-run nuclear company Rosatom in its eleventh sanctions package, according to a senior EU official.

The official told journalists during a briefing Thursday that, although member states are reducing their dependencies on Russian energy, the bloc will not be formally targeting Rosatom in the upcoming package. 

The bloc believes that "sanctions alone" will not bring about independence from Russian energy supplies, the official said, stressing that there are "other ways to reach the same goal."

The end of the G7 Hiroshima summit statement is expected to outline the group's sustained commitment towards independence from Russian nuclear energy sources.

Some context: Before the war, Europe was the largest buyer of Russian gas. The EU imported nearly 100 billion euros ($110 billion) worth of Russian energy in 2021.

While the bloc has placed punishing economic sanctions on Russia, their stance on importing Russian energy has been rather soft. Kyiv has urged European countries to commit to a permanent boycott of Russian gas, but some have found it costly and painful to wean their economies off the cheap Russian supply.

The European Union is "confident" that a plan for sanctioning Russian diamonds will be put in place at the upcoming G7 meeting in Japan, according to a senior EU official.

At a briefing with journalists Thursday, the senior EU official stressed that the "main focus" of the G7's sanctions is "circumvention."

"What we have been pushing to (do), which we think would be important in the coming months, is diamonds, and you can expect this to be mentioned in the G7 communique," the official said. 

Brussels does not yet have a formal proposal for how these sanctions would take effect, the official said, stressing that the bloc needs to "engage with partners first" rather than do it alone. The official called the "traceability of diamonds" a "crucial" matter, reiterating the roles of different actors in the chain of producing diamonds.

"It's of huge value for the industry what comes from Russia, so we believe we need to limit exports from Russia in the sector and it will be important to be able to implement,” the official said.

A “diplomatic dance”: India, named as a "crucial actor" in the diamond industry, will need to be considered as a significant player in the G7’s prospective sanctions, according to the official.

The official spoke of a "diplomatic dance" with regard to how the G7 approaches the issue of sanctions with different countries. Those in the EU are more likely to be supportive of Ukraine, but the G7 will need to "to be careful" when discussing sanctions with other nations, the official said. 

The EU would like to engage carefully with countries such as India, where the diamond industry is "quite important", the official added, not just " in terms of numbers, but in terms of politics, symbolism.”

US tightening rules on Russian diamonds: One G7 nation, the United States, has already placed export restrictions on Russian diamonds. Last March, President Joe Biden issued an executive order which included a prohibition on non-industrial Russian diamonds. The ban directly targeted Alrosa, identified by the US government as the world's largest diamond mining company, responsible for 90% of Russia's diamond mining capacity and accounting for 28% of global diamond output.

“These sanctions will continue to apply pressure to key entities that enable and fund Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine,” said Brian Nelson, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence in a statement released in April.

Moscow has decided to freeze the bank accounts of Finland’s embassy and consulate in response to “unfriendly actions” by western nations, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday.  

The bank accounts of the Finnish Embassy in Moscow and General consulate in St. Petersburg were frozen by the Russian government at the end of April, Finland’s Foreign Ministry in Helsinki told CNN on Wednesday.

In a statement, the ministry added that it had “demanded Russia secure Finland´s diplomatic missions’ local money and payment transactions.”

Russia hits back: Finland is among the host of European countries to have imposed sanctions on Russia, since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine. The Baltic nation, which shares over 1,000 kilometers or 621 miles of land border with Russia, has also sought to shore up its own defenses against its neighbor by joining NATO in April.

Russia’s retort shows that it can use similar economic weapons as those used by the West. But it is unclear whether it plans to take similar actions against other nations – or if it has singled out Finland.