Landfall locations are always difficult to pinpoint. So much goes into forecasting where landfall will be. It’s always hard to know precisely where — especially several days away.
Steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico, large-scale weather features around Hurricane Delta and the storm’s size and organization will all play a role in the direction. Any tiny wobbles a storm will make on its journey to the coast could change its trajectory.
Forecast computer models don’t precisely agree right now.
The most well-known computer models — the European and American models — have differences in where landfall will be.
The American model:
The American model has the storm making a turn to the north a little sooner, which brings the landfall location farther east, into West and Central Louisiana. It also shows the storm being much bigger and stronger than the European model.
“The GFS (American Model) and UKMET (UK Met Office computer model), on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the coast,” the National Hurricane Center.
The European model:
The European model has the storm veering more west, making landfall closer to the Texas border. It also shows the storm to be a little more ragged and smaller.
The European model is also later on landfall time. It shows a landfall around 8 p.m. ET on Friday — and the American model shows a landfall 6 hours sooner.
Once the storm is fully back in the Gulf of Mexico, more certainty will emerge — however, it’s not uncommon to have small changes in landfall location a day or two before landfall.
You can compare the different models as they update here.