With two presidential candidates fighting over a mere 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible. It’s actually kind of surprising there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
That tie was the result of a failure of coordination by Democratic-Republicans, but it led to the nation’s first “contingent election,” decided in the House of Representatives.
Could a tie actually happen this year?
Yes. While a tie is not a likely outcome, it is something to be ready for. Here is one plausible scenario for the 2024 election:
If Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which President Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there’s a tie, 269-269.
The website 270 to Win also has more tied-election scenarios.
What happens if there’s a tie?
If there’s a 269-269 tie, or if a third party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and keeps a candidate from reaching an Electoral College majority of 270, the next step is the same. It’s called a “contingent election.”
According to the 12th Amendment, enacted in the wake of that divisive 1800 election, if no candidate gets a majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
Have a look at what a tie could look like in maps, and what that could mean here.
