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CNN’s live debate draw

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These 20 Democrats made the cut for CNN's debate
1:45 • Source: CNN
cnn democratic presidential debate
1:45

What we covered here

  • The second 2020 debate: The two-night event is set for July 30 and 31 in Detroit, Michigan.
  • Who’s participating: Ten candidates will take the stage each night. (See the lineup here.)
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Here's what you need to know about the debate lineup

The lineup for the two-night Democratic primary debate in Detroit, Michigan, was announced tonight.

We’re wrapping up our live coverage for the night. In case you missed it, here’s what you need to know about the debates:

  • The CNN debates: The Democratic debates will be held over two nights on July 30 and 31. The CNN debate brings the Democratic candidates to the battleground state of Michigan, which Trump won in 2016.
  • The candidates who qualified: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Vice President Joe Biden, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, author Marianne Williamson and businessman Andrew Yang.
  • The lineup: Williamson, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Ryan, Bullock, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Buttigieg, Warren and Sanders are taking the stage on the first night. Inslee, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Bennet, de Blasio, Booker, Yang, Castro, Harris and Biden will face off on the second night.

Here’s a look the podium positions for each night:

Sanders and Harris' campaigns react to CNN's debate draw

Two Democratic presidential hopefuls reacted to tonight’s CNN debate draw.

Sen. Bernie Sanders’s campaign manager Faiz Shakir took his first jab at some of the candidates ahead of the debates. (Sanders will be part of the first night of CNN’s Democratic debates on July 30.)

Sen. Kamala Harris’ campaign said the debates will allow her to share her ideas and “reach more Americans to join our movement to prosecute the case against four more years of Donald Trump and this administration.”

Harris will appear on the second night of the debates on July 31.

All eyes will be on Buttigieg and O'Rourke's interactions during the debates

One key dynamic on debate night will be how South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke interact with one another.

Both younger Democrats are considered rising stars in the party, but their presidential campaigns are going in distinctly different directions: After announcing a presidential exploratory committee with little fanfare, Buttigieg raised nearly $25 million the second quarter of 2019, compared to O’Rourke, who raised $9.4 million in the first 18 days of his campaign but only raised $3.6 million in the second quarter.

Many Democratic operatives believe Buttigieg offered a fresh new face during the presidential campaign, stepping on O’Rourke’s momentum after a failed, but closely watched, Senate campaign in Texas.

Warren reacts to the debates: "I'm fired up for big, structural change—let’s do this!"

Sen. Elizabeth Warren just tweeted about tonight’s CNN debate draw, saying she was “grateful for another chance to talk” about her grassroots movement.

I’m fired up for big, structural change—let’s do this!” she said.

Read her tweet:

Will Warren and Sanders' friendship be tested at the debates?

Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will go head-to-head on July 30.

There are no two top, or even middle-tier candidates, with so much in common.

Yes, they are drawing support in the polls from different demographic pools, but that doesn’t mean those voters aren’t drawn to them for similar reasons.

The candidates seem to be taking a similar view: both have done their best to avoid any kind of confrontation, real or perceived, perhaps believing that the an attack on one could depress their own support.

For that reason, it will be incredibly interesting to see them share a debate stage. There’s every chance what’s effectively been a nonaggression pact will survive a debate night — with the pair using the platform to advocate for their mostly similar platforms.

Or…

Things could go a different way. If Sanders is worried that Warren is claiming the progressive mantle from him, he could question Warren on health care, and force her to talk more about Medicare for All.

If Warren — who said “I’m with Bernie” on health care the first time around — seeks to differentiate herself, she could argue that she’s a better choice, plans and all, to make their shared proposals a reality.

Warren and Sanders will share a stage. But they don't share a base.

The big night one matchup will be between Sanders and Warren. Despite both pulling most of their voters from the left, I’d bet that this pairing won’t produce the most memorable moment in night one. Why? 

Well for one thing, the two senators have shown a reluctance to go after each other on the campaign trail. They seem to genuinely like each other. 

But it’s more than that. I’m not sure either has much to gain. Sanders base is much more working class than Warren’s. That is, she does significantly better among whites with a college degree, while Sanders does significantly better among whites without a college degree. 

If night one produces a moment, it might be a lower tier candidate try and make an electability or ideologically contrast case against Sanders or Warren. 

Why these debates could be an opportunity for Michael Bennet

Sen. Michael Bennet, step on up.

The Colorado moderate will stand out on the second debate night, which is otherwise stocked with progressive hopefuls.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard are among the furthest left in the field. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is running on a massive climate plan. And Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Cory Booker are both cosponsors of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” bill.

On the flip side, former Rep. John Delaney and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper won’t have much to argue about on the first night. They’ll be hoping to take on Sanders.

Here are the podium positions for CNN's Democratic debates

Here are the podium positions for each night of CNN’s Democratic debates.

The podium positions are based on public polling numbers.

Here's the final lineup for CNN's Democratic debates

The final draw for the second Democratic primary debate was just pulled.

Once the draw is completed, CNN will announce the podium positions — based upon public polling — for each debate night.

Here’s a look at the final lineup:

July 30

  • Marianne Williamson
  • John Delaney
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Tim Ryan
  • Steve Bullock
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Beto O’Rourke
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Bernie Sanders

July 31

  • Jay Inslee
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Michael Bennet
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Cory Booker
  • Andrew Yang
  • Julián Castro
  • Kamala Harris
  • Joe Biden

Castro v. O'Rourke round 2 will have to wait

Break ‘em up! There will be no second round of intra-Texas brawling.

Julián Castro and Beto O’Rourke have been drawn into separate debate nights.

In their last time out, when they shared a stage in Miami, Castro attacked his fellow Texan in a tense exchange over immigration.

That back-and-forth ended with Castro, who had a strong performance across the board, telling O’Rourke to “do your homework.”

But O’Rourke isn’t out of the woods. He’ll be alongside Pete Buttigieg this time around. The South Bend mayor would seem like a natural competitor, given the early comparisons between the two.

Debates can really move the needle

If you want to know what’s at stake in tonight’s drawing, remember what happened in the first debates. There was, of course, no guarantee that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would end up on the same stage. They did, and Harris’ confrontation of Biden in that debate proved to be, at least momentarily, a game changer. 

Harris ended up picking up an average 9 points in the national polls post-debate. She went from a tie for fourth place at 7% to second place at 16%. 

Biden, meanwhile, ended up dropping from 30% to 25%. He still leads in the national polling, but what was once a 13-point advantage dropped to 9 points over his nearest competitor. 

Perhaps more than the numbers moving, Biden’s lackluster debate performance made folks wonder whether Biden was truly up to the task of running for president.  

Will the CNN debates feature a moment that similarly moves the polls? We’ll have to see. 

Here's where things stand after the second draw

CNN anchor Victor Blackwell just pulled the second draw for CNN’s Democratic debate in Michigan.

How the draw works: During each draw, cards with a candidate’s name will be placed into a dedicated box, while a second box will hold cards printed with the date of each night. For each draw, the anchor will retrieve a name card from the first box and then match it with a date card from the second box.

Here’s what the debate stages look like so far:

July 30

  • Marianne Williamson
  • John Delaney
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Tim Ryan
  • Steve Bullock
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Beto O’Rourke
  • Pete Buttigieg

July 31

  • Jay Inslee
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Michael Bennet
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Cory Booker
  • Andrew Yang
  • Julián Castro

Here's where things stand after the first draw

CNN anchor Brianna Keilar just pulled the first draw for CNN’s Democratic debate in Michigan.

Here’s what it looks like:

July 30

  • Marianne Williamson
  • John Delaney
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Tim Ryan
  • Steve Bullock

July 31

  • Jay Inslee
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Michael Bennet
  • Bill de Blasio

Why this is the last chance for low-polling candidates 

While a lot of attention will be on the top candidates, some of the not top-tier candidates will be looking to break out in our debates. They better hope they do, if they want any realistic chance of winning the nomination.

Yes, it’s early days, but if the lower-tier candidates don’t move up soon, they’re in danger of missing future debates.

By my count, only six candidates (Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Kamal Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren) have qualified for the ABC News/Univision debates. Those debates require candidates to hit 2% in four qualifying polls from June 28 to August 28, as well as hit 130,000 donors nationwide and 400 donors across 20 states.

A few other candidates like Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker will probably make it given their polling and donor status. 

But at least 50% of the candidates in our debates may not make the next ones if things continue going the way they are. And if you don’t make debates as a candidate, the fundraising is likely to dry up as well as any media attention to help propel a candidacy.  

CNN's Democratic debate draw starts now

The nightly lineups for CNN’s two-night Democratic primary debate will be selected soon.

Here a breakdown of the draws:

The first draw will include 10 candidates:

  • Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
  • New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
  • Best-selling author and activist Marianne Williamson
  • Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet
  • Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
  • New York Mayor Bill de Blasio
  • Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
  • Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan

The second draw will include six candidates:

  • New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
  • South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
  • Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
  • Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke
  • Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang
  • Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro

The final draw will include four candidates:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris

Here's what you need to know about CNN's Democratic debates

The highly anticipated Democratic presidential primary debates are airing later this month on CNN.

Here’s what you need to know about the debates:

  • Who’s moderating: Dana Bash, Don Lemon and Jake Tapper will moderate the Democratic National Committee-sanctioned debates in Michigan.
  • When are the debates: The debates will be held over two nights on July 30 and 31. Both nights will air live exclusively on CNN and CNN en Español. The debates will also be simulcast on CNN International.
  • It’s happening in Detroit: The CNN debate brings the Democratic candidates to the battleground state of Michigan, which Trump won in 2016.
  • The two-night event is one of 12 debates: A total of 12 presidential primary debates are planned during the 2020 election cycle. Six debates will be held in 2019, and the other six will be held in 2020.

What it takes to qualify for a presidential debate

There are two ways to qualify for the first presidential debate.

Candidates must either meet polling or fundraising criteria. The Democratic National Committee said a maximum of 20 candidates could qualify.

In announcing new debate rules, the DNC set two potential qualification requirements for the field:

  1. Achieve at least 1% support in three polls from an approved list of pollsters
  2. Receive campaign contributions from 65,000 unique donors, including 200 donors each from 20 different states

These candidates did not make the debate stage

Four Democratic presidential candidates did not qualify for the second round of debates. They are…

  • Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton
  • Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam
  • Billionaire investor Tom Steyer
  • Former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak

Candidates had until 11 a.m. ET Wednesday to certify with the DNC that they have either achieved at least 1% support in three polls from an approved list of pollsters or received campaign contributions from 65,000 unique donors, including 200 donors each from 20 different states.

But based on public information, it had been clear for days that Moulton, Messam, Steyer and Sestak were the four candidates likely to miss the debate stage.

What the tiered picking system does

If you watched the MSNBC/NBC/Telemundo debates back in June, you may recall that the two debates had an uneven breakdown in terms of top tier candidates. Only one high polling candidate (Elizabeth Warren) appeared on night one, while four (Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders) appeared on night two. 

That will not happen this time around. It’s a guarantee that nights one and two will each have two top-tier candidates. 

If we had done a completely random draw, there would have been a good chance of a lopsided debate. That is, one night having most of the top tier candidates. 

In a completely random draw, there was only a 41.8% chance the top four candidates would have been split evenly between the two nights. The best chance would have been for a 3:1 split (49.5%). There was even a chance that one night would have had all the top four candidates (8.7%). 

Here's how the debate draw works

CNN will conduct a live draw to determine which night each candidate will appear in the Democratic primary debates.

There will be three draws, which will be pulled in the 8 p.m. hour, with CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer introducing and recapping each draw.

Here’s what to expect:

  • CNN anchors Brianna Keilar will do the first draw, Victor Blackwell will take the second draw and Ana Cabrera will pull the final draw.
  • During each draw, cards with a candidate’s name will be placed into a dedicated box, while a second box will hold cards printed with the date of each night. For each draw, the anchor will retrieve a name card from the first box and then match it with a date card from the second box.
  • Once the draw is completed, CNN will announce the podium positions — based upon public polling — for each debate night.

Watch this explainer on the draw:

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