Pretty much everyone seems to think the 2026 election is going to be quite good for Democrats. But what might hold them back?

Also, let’s drill down on the latest tea leaves from ad spending, polls and a pretty ugly inflation report that dropped on Wednesday. — Aaron

If 2026 isn’t a huge Democratic year, here’s why

There is no shortage of bullish signs for Democrats’ quest to win back control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. They’re virtually everywhere.

President Donald Trump is polling worse than any modern president heading into a midterm, and Democrats are competing in deep-red territory because of it.

But let’s play devil’s advocate for a bit. We’ve seen election results surprise us before, after all. (2016, anyone?) What are the reasons to think maybe the blue wave won’t be as tall as everyone thinks? What bits of hope are there for Republicans to grasp for?

I’ve isolated several.

A polling miss

This is the big one. The general idea is something called “nonresponse bias.” In this case, it could mean that the most passionate Republican voters just aren’t responding to pollsters as much as Democrats, and subsequently the polls aren’t accounting for the votes they’ll ultimately cast.

And it is plausible. Pollsters and analysts of all stripes have acknowledged as much and tried to figure out how much of a difference it could make – and which side it could hurt more.

There’s evidence the phenomenon played a role in polls underselling Trump in recent elections. But surveys have also undersold Democrats in recent elections, including 2025. And it’s feasible to think that Republicans aren’t responding to polls for the same reason they may not turn out to vote – because they are dejected.

The maps

Republicans have built-in advantages in both the House and the Senate.

In the Senate, Democrats need to win at least two states that Trump won by double-digits, because there are more red states than blue states.

In the House, the median congressional district – that is, the one that’s right in the middle of all 435 districts – is 3.5 points more Republican than the country as a whole. (That’s in part because of how the population is distributed, and in part because of gerrymandering.)

So, Democrats could have a pretty darn good election – winning the nationwide popular vote by the mid-to-high single digits – and still not gain that much.

The nuisance Senate races

Even as Democrats have pushed into pretty red states (more on that in a bit) in their quest for a Senate majority, some other states that they’d have hoped to have in the bag by now, well, aren’t.

▶️ Video: Senate candidates clash in three battleground debates

Those include Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Losing any of them would make the Democrats’ majority odds significantly longer.

Turnout problems with key demographics

The good news for Democrats is that groups like Latinos and young people have swung very hard against the GOP during Trump’s second term.

The bad news is that these are also demographics that tend to see bigger turnout dropoffs in midterms, versus presidential elections.

The GOP’s money

There is just no comparison between the two parties on this front of late. Of the money now being spent on this election by the top 20 outside groups, about two-thirds is benefiting Republicans, according to a Brennan Center analysis of federal campaign finance records.

And Elon Musk alone has spent $276 million toward their cause just since this summer.

The raw dollar figures are somewhat misleading; because the GOP is heavily relying on outside groups making late buys, it pays premium rates. So, in September, the GOP ads generated only about 40% more rating points in Senate battleground races, as CNN’s David Wright notes.

But that’s still a sizable advantage.

Outside money didn’t used to favor the GOP like that. And while money isn’t the be-all, end-all, it surely matters for something as it floods many of these races in the final stretch.

In other news…

Ad decisions crystallize the battle for Congress

Late every election cycle, decisions on ads tell us a lot about where things could be headed. And we’re starting to get more of those.

In the House, the top GOP super PAC canceled reservations in five districts in Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio and Texas, all of which supported Trump in 2024. Two of those seats are held by GOP incumbents the group was defending.

The GOP has somewhat unusual candidate problems in most of those districts. But still, the fact that the party would view such swing districts as so unwinnable as to not be worth spending any money suggests it’s girding for significant losses.

GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ district in Iowa favored Trump by 8.5 points, while Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar’s newly redrawn district in Texas favored Trump by 10 points.

The Senate GOP’s super PAC, meanwhile, upped its spending in the Nebraska Senate race by $8 million, bringing the total for the cycle to $15 million, according to the Wall Street Journal. (That race pits GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn.)

That’s a huge outlay for a quite-red state. If you’re keeping score at home, Republicans are now spending real money to defend states that last voted for Trump by 16 points (Kansas), 18 points (South Carolina) and 20 points (Nebraska).

James Talarico’s fascinating CNN town hall

We saw something really pretty unusual and interesting on CNN on Wednesday night: Democratic Texas Senate candidate state Rep. James Talarico participating in a town hall where he engaged at length with and even debated voters who disagreed with him. (The town hall was co-hosted by Jubilee Media.)

▶️ Video: Talarico refutes skeptics at CNN town hall

One exchange came when a Republican pressed him on his past comments that God was “nonbinary.” Talarico, who is usually a pretty smooth communicator, was put on his heels a bit when his interlocutor kept pressing, acknowledging that he “was being provocative” and “maybe in an annoying way.”

Talarico also displayed some humility when he was pressed by a rabbi about his positions critical of Israel. Talarico conceded that he’s “always trying to improve” how he talks about difficult issues like the war in Gaza.

He was even challenged from the left by a voter who didn’t like his support for banning transgender surgeries for children. The voter said it wasn’t an issue for legislatures. Talarico emphasized his belief that such procedures “could cause permanent damage.”

Keep an eye on this format. It’s one that we could certainly use more of.

Quick bites

The lesson of the new Texas polling

The good news for Republicans in the neck-and-neck new polling of the Texas Senate race is that some of the shine seems to have come off Talarico. A Marist College poll showed his image is underwater – 43% favorable to 49% unfavorable – among likely voters.

The bad news for Republicans is that Paxton is still an albatross. The same poll showed him 22 points underwater – 34%-56%. And just 64% of his supporters strongly supported him, versus 84% of Talarico’s backers.

Paxton’s image just hasn’t improved after his brutal runoff with Sen. John Cornyn in May, despite GOP hopes that it would. So, if he wins, it will pretty clearly be despite himself.

Talarico’s record haul

And in yet more Texas Senate news, we just got word that Talarico raised a stunning $64 million in the third quarter. That’s the most a Senate candidate has ever raised for the final full three-month period before an election. It’s also more than three times Paxton’s $18 million haul.

Talarico’s prolific fundraising – now north of $130 million overall – has helped him somewhat offset an influx of outside GOP spending against him.

The previous record-holder was 2020 South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Jaime Harrison, who raised about $58 million.

The GOP’s inflation problem, cemented

A brutal new inflation report on Wednesday might have dashed – once and for all – any GOP hopes that it would get some helpful news on prices ahead of the midterms.

The annual inflation rate spiked from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September, with prices rising 0.6% in September alone. Those simply aren’t good numbers. And the report comes as gas prices have stubbornly stayed above $4 per gallon.

Maybe people don’t know the specific inflation rate. But polls and consumer surveys have shown a remarkable level of pessimism.

Republicans would really have preferred that voters could at least see a little light at the end of the tunnel ahead of November 3. And that just isn’t happening.

Poll of the week

One of the big questions about the 2026 midterms has been whether Democrats’ brand problem would drag them down. Americans had a historically dim view of the blue team after the 2024 election.

Well, a new Gallup poll and other recent data suggest Democrats have mitigated this problem somewhat.

The poll shows 43% of Americans have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. That’s up from the mid-30s last year. It’s also eight points higher than the Republican Party’s 35% favorable rating.

Upcoming events

Today

Monday, Oct. 19

Wednesday, Oct. 21: Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns with Democratic Nevada gubernatorial candidate and state Attorney General Aaron Ford.

Watch this

▶️ Video: CNN talks to Trump supporters about gas prices

Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, everyone can agree on one thing: rising gas prices suck.

Today’s newsletter was edited by Katherine Dautrich and produced by Gina Park.