See the five types of independents that have big implications for American politics

Picture an independent voter.

You might be imagining someone who takes their time considering the candidates and their positions on the issues, who generally has faith in the political system, who sometimes votes for Republicans and sometimes for Democrats.

But a new CNN poll taking a deeper look into who political independents are finds the notion of a classic swing voter is a thing of the past.

The poll results identify five distinct types of independents, with big implications for American politics. As party loyalty fades and the definition of that elusive swing voter shifts, elections are increasingly decided by who among these groups shows up to vote.

Among independents, there is a subset that rejects party labels but aligns closely with one of the two major parties on many issues, which we’re calling Democratic Lookalikes and Republican Lookalikes. The poll also identifies two groups that remix the definition of a traditional swing voter — the Disappointed Middle and the Upbeat Outsiders. A fifth group — The Checked Out — is largely uninterested in politics.

“I do think there’s more of a disconnect between what the people want and what the party wants,” said Lisa Munson, a Maryland mother of three who spoke to CNN after responding to the poll. She has voted for President Donald Trump three times but said she has no plans to register as a Republican. “I’ve never wanted to declare either Republican or Democrat.”

The poll took inspiration from a 2007 project from the Washington Post, KFF and the Harvard School of Public Health. That analysis found that 18% of political independents made up a category the researchers called “Deliberators,” described as “quintessential swing voters.” In 2025, that group is no more.

Now, swing voters generally aren’t people who start out with a determination to vote and an open mind to both parties. Instead, they’re more likely determined to participate in the political process, despite their disdain for the leaders within it. Or they are open to what political leaders have to say, but are too busy with their own lives to be a part of it.

Select a category below to learn more

The Upbeat Outsiders The Disappointed Middle The Democratic Lookalikes The Republican Lookalikes The Checked Out

The Upbeat Outsiders

This young, diverse, more-urban-than-most group has the hallmark openness of a classic swing voter, but its members are either busy or too uninterested to tune in to politics. Representing about 22% of all independents, they are more likely to be parents (42% have a child under 18) and 71% have household incomes of less than $50,000 a year. They are more likely than other independents to be unemployed and looking for work (19%) and a sizable share (37%) say they haven’t voted in major elections in the last decade.

Upbeat Outsiders are the most likely of our five groups to say a major reason they consider themselves independent is that they agree with Democrats on some issues and Republicans on others. More than half also say that distaste for the two parties is NOT part of why they call themselves independent. Most of them land as true independents who do not lean toward either party. Those who do lean are slightly more Republican than Democratic.

This group tilts toward GOP policies on the economy and immigration and broadly favors the GOP on crime and policing. But its members break for the Democrats by double digits on abortion and policies around DEI. The poll was fielded before Charlie Kirk was assassinated in mid-September. While positive feelings about politics were hard to come by in America even then, there were glimmers of positivity for this group. Nearly 40% say they are optimistic about politics, higher than all but the most GOP-aligned group of independents, and nearly half say the US political system needs only minor reforms or no change at all, the highest of any group of independents.

But this group is also among the least likely to prioritize participating in politics. Just 30% say it’s extremely important to vote in national elections, lower than all but the most checked-out independents, and 63% say they mostly hear about politics while doing something else, not by looking for news.

The Disappointed Middle

This group, which makes up 16% of all independents, is defined by a contrast. Its members are engaged and interested in politics and consider it deeply important to vote in national elections, but are broadly disappointed in what both parties have to offer. Seventy percent of this group holds an unfavorable opinion of both the Democratic and Republican parties, higher than any other segment of independents by 28 points.

Nearly half say both parties are too extreme, 17 points higher than any other group of independents. And 77% say that not liking either party is a major reason they consider themselves an independent. Their feelings about politics are decidedly negative: 93% say they are dissatisfied with the political influence people like them have, 94% say neither party has the right priorities, 82% are disappointed by American politics and 85% say the political system needs major reforms. When pressed, they tilt slightly Republican and more voted for Trump in 2024 than Kamala Harris.

They lean notably toward the GOP on issues that have been the centerpiece of recent Republican messaging: Crime and policing (more GOP than Democrats by 39 points), policies on gender identity and trans people (24 points), immigration (22 points) and policies on diversity, equity and inclusion (20 points).

Still, just 3% in this group say they consider themselves a part of the MAGA movement. And 52% say they at least lean toward a preference for having the Democrats in control of Congress after the 2026 midterms.

A third of this group says they attend religious services about once a week or more, higher than any other independent subset, 57% are married and 45% have annual household incomes of $100,000 or more.

The Democratic Lookalikes

Nearly a quarter of political independents have attitudes that largely line up with the Democratic Party but don’t consider themselves to be partisans. In this group, 83% say they lean toward Democrats. The same share voted for Harris in 2024 and 75% say they have mostly or have always voted Democratic in major elections in the last decade.

They are about as likely as self-identified Democrats to call themselves progressive (just over half in both groups describe themselves that way) but slightly less likely to consider themselves liberal (39% in the lookalikes say so vs. 48% of self-identified Democrats).

Just 51% have a favorable view of the party (that’s 27 points below the share of self-identified Democrats who feel that way), and they are more likely than Democrats to say that neither party has the right priorities, has strong leaders or cares about people like them. By contrast, self-identified Republicans and Republican Lookalikes are much more closely aligned in their perceptions of the GOP.

Like self-identified Democrats, Democratic Lookalikes are largely women, but they are slightly older (55% of Democratic Lookalikes are age 50 or older compared with 45% of Democrats) and more likely to be White (68% vs. 51%) than people who consider themselves Democrats outright. Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic Lookalikes have a college degree, the highest of any independent subset.

The Republican Lookalikes

About 12% of independents are people who do not call themselves Republicans but largely align with the party on issues and when they go to the ballot box. The vast majority of this group says it leans toward the GOP and 92% of them voted for Trump in 2024.

About 35% consider themselves members of the “Make America Great Again” movement, and two-thirds say they always or mostly vote Republican in major elections. They are more likely than self-identified Republicans to say they are frustrated with American politics (57% among the lookalikes, 49% among self-identified Republicans), but about as likely as self-identified Republicans to say they are satisfied with their influence on politics.

Why not call themselves Republicans? About 9 in 10 say a major reason is that they “vote on the issues, not a party line” and 83% say it’s because they “vote for candidates, not parties,” both higher than among any other subset of independents.

This group is mostly male, like self-identified Republicans, over age 50 (68%, more than among Republicans, 56%) and 79% White (about the same as the 78% among Republicans). Republican Lookalikes are also just as likely to live in a rural area as an urban one.

The Checked Out

About a quarter of independents land here, the group with the highest share of people who don’t lean toward either party and the least likely to engage with politics. Nearly all in this group (99%) didn’t vote in 2024, either because they weren’t registered in the first place or were registered but took a pass on that election. Only a quarter pay enough attention to politics to hear major developments.

About 8 in 10 cite not being interested in politics as a reason for being an independent, with a similar share saying they just haven’t voted in major elections in the past decade. Two-thirds say they have never considered themselves a part of either political party. Three-quarters say that it doesn’t matter to them who controls Congress when initially asked. And even for those in this group who do care about the issues, they are deeply disconnected from the two-party system: Two-thirds say they have never considered themselves a part of either political party.

Nearly half of Checked Out independents live in an urban area and they are much younger than other independents.