'This campaign season has been full of colorful characters, intense debates, and even a little skullduggery. Now, Election Day 2025 is just four short days away. Up for grabs: in Virginia and New Jersey, the governor's mansions and both general assemblies. Redistricting is on the ballot in California with Governor Gavin Newsom's Prop 50. And Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, is the front-runner to become mayor of America's largest city, New York. With all these storylines reaching their crescendo, it's time to call in two of our expert correspondents, Jeff Zeleny and Eva McKend have spent lots of time on the campaign trail, and they're here to open up their notebooks and tell us what they've learned. I'm David Chalian, CNN Political Director and Washington Bureau Chief, and this is the CNN Political Briefing. Stay with us.

Jeff, Eva, thank you so much for being here. How nice to see you in person in studio.

Thanks for having us.

I know you guys have spent a bunch of time in New York and New Jersey, but I have a larger question overall. How much are you finding in talking to campaigns and talking to voters that Donald Trump is playing into their minds as a factor in this election?

I could say it's definitely a factor in Virginia when you speak to Democratic voters and Democratic strongholds. It's the first thing that they bring up. They are looking for people in this moment who can fight back against this administration. And in Virginia, where the impacts of what's happening in Washington are being especially felt, they instinctively bring up Trump. So I could at least say in that state, it's pretty significant.

And do you see it on the Republican side in Virginia of, I know it's not a state he won obviously, but of trying to ride the wave of that Trump, MAGA, very impassioned support?

'Not as much. I don't hear Virginia Republicans talking about Trump. In fact, Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor who is the Republican gubernatorial candidate there, did not get the Trump endorsement. She typically steers the conversation away from Trump when he's asked. It doesn't seem to be as much of a factor on the Republican side.

Look, of all these races, we know one thing. President Trump is watching the New York City mayor's race closer than any of the others because...

His native land.

Of course. Even though he moved to Florida a few years ago, look, he is still a New Yorker through and through. That's where he built his brand, his business, his family. He is watching that race very carefully with astonishment on one hand that, as he said, he just cannot believe the city could be on the cusp of electing a Democratic Socialist who he calls a communist. But on the other hand, with glee almost in his voice, that President Trump, it seems, is eager for a new foil. He has been talking about Hillary Clinton for years, Joe Biden for years. And he still will probably, but Zohran Mamdani is someone who I think President Trump hopes to get a lot of mileage out of. But in the other states, it's so clear that both sides are betting on Trump for very different reasons, of course. I was in New Jersey recently and Mikie Sherrill was talking with very specific points about Trump policies that have affected the lives of New Jersey voters. The Gateway Tunnel Project, for example, the nation's largest infrastructure project scheduled or was scheduled to be a commuter rail project between New Jersey and New York, tens of thousands of jobs for New Jerseyans. And the president has, at least as of now, terminated it because of his feud with Chuck Schumer in New York. But never mind what does that do in New Jersey. So, Democrats are trying to use him as a way to energize voters. However, Jack Cittarelli in New Jersey is also trying to get every Trump voter out there who supported Trump when his name was on the ballot to support Cittarelli. So...

'Had a tele-rally with the president.

'He did, just in the closing week and a half of the campaign, he had him come in for a tele-rally. So that's Trump...

Not to share the stage in front of television cameras with, though.

For sure.

I mean, there's, like, a deliberate strategy in place.

There is, and the president's also busy. I mean, he was flying to Asia, sort of, hours after that. But look, if President Trump wanted to give up some time for a rally, he obviously would, but he hasn't had many rallies in his second term. It's something we have not seen from him. But I do think, look, Trump is not on the ballot, but he's a major factor in this race for all sides.

You mentioned Mamdani in New York. You know, we saw in the primary some overlap of areas where Donald Trump made gains or some demographics where Donald Trump made gains, where Zohran Mamdani, the complete different ideological kind of candidate, was having success. And there were places in New York where you could find an overlap of Mamdani/Trump voters.

Without question, and that kind of speaks to this real phenomenon that we've seen for the last several cycles. There is, if you look at the concentric circles of political figures and who sort of supports both, I've long been fascinated with the slice of people who may support both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. That populist sort of outsider kind of feeling. So I think similar to New York City right now, watching Bernie Sanders at that massive rally, really in the closing week and a half of the campaign for Mamdani was so fascinating. So perhaps there was some of that overlap right there. Now, I think there is very much less of it in New York City than there would be in like a Michigan, for example, where working class voters may like Bernie Sanders and they may have gravitated toward Donald Trump. I think the longer that Trump is in office, I think it's not as pronounced. But another definitely is some of that. There is no doubt about it. But I think that the Trump factor in this race, the White House is watching this as sort of one of the first indications of what the country, what some voters have to say about its policies. And Democrats, I'm struck by, at least in Virginia, Abigail Spanberger. And Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. They're not really talking about these sort of gauzy democracy arguments as much as actual Trump policy. Like, this is actually what he has done, what he plans to do. So it's different than I recall it being previously.

And Eva, you had mentioned in Virginia the impact of the government shutdown. Obviously, a lot of voters live in the Northern Virginia, DC suburbs, a a lot of connection to the federal government. How much has Spanberger leaned into specifically the shutdown as a part of her overall sort of affordability or economic argument?

'She's pinned it on Republicans, and it seems like, though, that has landed in a mixed way. I was at a food distribution site speaking to voters about this, and they shifted the blame to both parties. But she has tried to characterize herself as someone that could right the ship on the dysfunction coming out of Washington. So, she has an image, basically, of really being competent and level-headed. And it seems to have landed with some voters. For instance, I met a police officer managing the food distribution site, and he said that four years ago, he voted for Glenn Youngkin, but this time he would be voting for Abigail Spanberger. And he told me she comes across as a moderate. And so to the extent that she has led on the shutdown, it has been an effort to make herself seem like a reasonable person.

It's interesting to hear you say that, the sort of the moderate lane, but also in that voter that you're describing there, the change factor. And Jeff, in New Jersey, Jack Cittarelli's ads and a lot of his messaging is encapsulated in a bumper sticker of: "It's Time for a Change" after two successive democratic terms with Phil Murphy, the incumbent governor there. You know, how how much does that present an obstacle to Mikie Sherrill, even in a potentially favorable environment for Democrats right now?

Look, without a doubt, I think every election that we have covered recently and will cover from here to come, it's a change election. You know, the voters, the electorate is in the mood, has an appetite for change. It plays well in Virginia because there is a Republican governor. In New Jersey, it does not play well for Mikie Sherrill. Because Phil Murphy, the Democratic governor, has been in place for two terms. I didn't this until I was researching. Stories for this election was going up to New Jersey to talk with Mikie Sherrill, not since 1961. Think about that. That's longer than any of us, obviously, have been around. Even you and I, David, the oldest ones at the table here. Not since 1961 has the same party control the governorship three terms in a row. So that is what Mikie Sherill is kind of up against here. So she's not change for Phil Murphy. Because the Democrats have controlled Trenton. So I think the change factor is a challenge in New Jersey for Mikie Sherrill, and it probably abuts some of the Trump factor as well. So even though Trump's hanging over it, Phil Murphy may be her bigger challenge in New Jersey.

We're going to take a quick break. We will have a lot more with Eva McKend, Jeff Zeleny in just a moment.

We're back here with Jeff Zeleny and Eva McKend, my two colleagues who've been spending a ton of time on the 2025 campaign trail in these last many weeks as we approach the first big election for millions of voters to weigh in with their ballot choices in Trump's second term. Jeff, what are you hearing as top issues for voters? What is animating their thinking right now?

I think for Democrats in both Virginia and New Jersey, affordability is a central anthem of this campaign. Things are too expensive. A year ago, Donald Trump promised to bring prices down, has not delivered on that, promised to end inflation, has not delivered on that. So Democrats are seizing upon the affordability argument. But also, it's more than that. I think it is also a referendum on the Trump administration's policies. I mean, that is also something I heard again and again from Democrats who were voting, again, that's unfolding during a government shutdown. So particularly in Virginia, and not just in Northern Virginia, I was down in the Hampton Roads region, which is home to many military members, tens of thousands of government contractors, and the idea of what is happening in Washington, obviously, they're following very carefully. So I do think if you had to boil it down, it's affordability and some specific things the Trump administration has done, from the Democratic side. From Republicans, though, Republicans are eager to, in Virginia, to keep things going. I mean, they're eager to stay on track with the Youngkin agenda. Not talking about costs as much, they are worried about the cultural issues that they believe Democrats sort of represent. So Republican voters, I was talking to one in Hampton, Virginia, Sharon Cox. And I still remember what she said. She said, everything doesn't have to be about Trump. The Democrats want to make everything about Trump, she just wanted people to get along. And this was a Trump/Winsome Sears voter. So she thinks that everything is being blamed on Trump for all the ills and she thought that was unfair

'Eva, we heard Donald Trump say from the White House not too long ago that the 2026 midterms from his vantage point are going to be about crime and immigration. Do you see those as issues that Winston Earle-Sears is trying to put front and center, or is she trying to sort of swim in the affordability lane as well?

'She has, to a certain extent, on running on the Youngkin/Earle-Sears administration and the successes, in her view, that the administration has. But she's leaned heavily, especially on the air, in talking about the rules that govern trans children in public schools. She has done many news conferences outside of school board meetings to try to drive home at that issue.

An issue that Republicans had success with just a year ago in the '24 election.

Yes, but organically, when you speak to voters, it isn't something that they raise. And so I put that question to the campaign, why do you have you all focus so heavily on this issue when you talk to voters out in the wild when they are asking typically bring up for the affordability the ability to buy a home and other cost of living issues? But they say that they believe that it is important. But listen, I think that this election is a test of that. Because they have spent so much money and time focusing on this, have Republicans sort of run out of room to focus so narrowly on this trans right?

Have you found that Spanberger has learned any lessons from Kamala Harris's campaign in dealing with the attacks on trans issues?

So, it has been hard to pin her down on specifics on this issue as much as she has been asked. She has really stayed evasive when asked about the policies governing trans children. And I would say she has benefited from it not being the primary focus of so many voters. That is why she has able to get away with being imprecise. Because most voters in my assessment just don't rank that as their most urgent concern.

And unlike Kamala Harris, there is no videotape that exists of Abigail Spanberger supporting effectively a government health care or government services for trans people.

No ACLU questionnaire.

Exactly. And in fact, it sort of is her biography, both what Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are pushing. It's very much a national security moderate Democrat kind of world. I'm struck by the fact that they came of age politically, they won their first races back in 2018, which was Trump's first midterm election. It was a banner year for Democrats. Democrats would love to have a fraction of the success next year that they had in 2018. Because of maps and other things, that's probably not possible. But you cannot go very far without seeing a helicopter ad of Mikie Sherrill flying a helicopter. She, of course, was a Navy pilot, and Abigail Spanberger, of of course was in the CIA. And those are the things that the candidates want to focus on, not these cultural issues.

Well, that leads perfectly to this next part of the conversation I want to have with you guys, which is I think one of the big themes that will emerge Tuesday night, if the Democrats are successful across the board, yes, rebuke to Trump will be one aspect of that perhaps. But there will be a really, once again, newly energized intra party Democratic Party conversation about the model of the path forward. Because if Zohran Mamdani wins New York City, first Muslim mayor, 34 years old, Democratic Socialist. That's quite a different candidate profile, obviously for a very different geographic location, than these moderate national security women that you are talking about, Jeff, that could win the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. And I just think that will ignite a Democratic Party conversation about how to move forward from there. And I'm just wondering when you're talking to your Democratic sources. How you anticipate that conversation to unfold.

I think Democrats are getting to a place where they recognize that they can't perpetually be involved in this internal civil war, that they need both the Mamdani's and the Spanbergers in order to build a successful coalition, and that a lot of this is based on region. Mamdani in Virginia, I can't imagine championing the progressive policies that he does, would be successful statewide in Virginia, but right now, he very much fits the appetite for New York City. And you have Abigail Spanberger, who's in the centrist lane in Virginia. And if both of them are successful, I think it reinforces that Democrats have to get creative and get comfortable with having all sorts of people with varying ideologies under the same tent.

But that seems to have been a challenge for the party, Jeff, that there have been a lot of whether from interest groups inside the party or a lot litmus tests offered that there has not been necessarily a comfort with different kinds of Democrats.

'It's a discomfort. There's no doubt about it. I mean, we have watched this play out in every campaign of our careers that we've covered, but most significantly, more significantly, since the era of Bernie Sanders and the rise of Bernie Sanders. And those are the primary debates, first with Hillary Clinton, and then later on with Joe Biden and others that really have never been resolved. I mean, Bernie Sanders has remained one of the most popular figures in his party, not by winning, but by sustaining this message. But I think the bigger challenge when I talk to Democratic strategists and kind of big thinkers, a worry that they have is if either Sherrill or Spanberger falls short. That is going to create some I-told-you-so moments, perhaps, that this middle-of-the-road, this moderate lane may not be the way to go. And of course, every state is different. We have to load this up with caveats back to the change argument. Sherrill is not just running against - if she falls short, I think there's very little evidence that a progressive Democrat would have been able to be the change-argument either. But another thing in New York City, I mean, in the final days here of the race, we are all of wondering what is going to happen there. Is Andrew Cuomo going to have a bit of a rise? Is he not? These early voting numbers in a city where there's not a lot of history of early voting, but there's a lot interest this time around. What does it mean?

'Right before I walked in here, there was a brand new Quinnipiac poll that was released that showed, compared to Quinnipiac's October 9th poll, Andrew Cuomo, no movement in his overall top number. He was at 33% support in early October, he's at 33% support heading into the final weekend. Mamdani has come down a little bit, just by three points, and within the margin of error. So I don't want to overstate that. It seems to be a pretty stable race, but where Andrew Cuomo has made progress is among Republicans. And he is more competitive inside the Republican space against Curtis Sliwa with that message of don't waste your vote on Curtis Sliwa. That seems to be having some effect and clearly some of the negatives they're throwing at Mamdani seems to have some impact. His favorable/unfavorable is still positive, but not as positive. But the structure of the race still, you know, Mamdani is still a double-digit advantage.

As the New York Post cover on Wednesday morning says, "One Week to Save New York." And there's a picture of Mamdani and Cuomo. So yes, there are Republicans coming over. But I do think the margin of the race in New York City will be fascinating to look at. If Mamdani wins, but does not get near 50%, let's say in the lower 40s, there'll be many more moderate Democrats who say, see? See, look at this. So as every election, people's views will gravitate toward the metric that best suits their view. But one thing we know for sure, this will not resolve the ideological debate inside the Democratic Party.

I think that's moving the goalposts a bit, though, because a Mamdani victory would still be quite remarkable given where he started. And I'll just end with this, I think how you get a Mamdani and a Trump voter is really style over substance. In that, the way that they land and communicate with voters, it comes across to voters as authentic to them. And so that, I think, is an important takeaway: people might not agree with all of Bernie Sanders' policy positions but they receive that Bernie Sanders believes what Bernie Sanders is saying to his core.

To Jeff's point, not enough when he was running for president inside the Democratic Party for a primary to actually emerge victorious, but yes, they may believe that. It just was not the winning style or substance inside those primaries.

That is true, that is true. But I still think that that's really important, that voters have to believe you, even if they don't always agree with everything that you are putting out.

Without a doubt. And I'll just say, to bring us back to the Trump factor that we started with, when I was listening you say, Jeff, that, you know, if Sherrill or Spanberger come up short and that that could spark a different kind of Democratic conversation, true. I also think, and I know this may be, like, an unfair, sort of, expectation setting for the Democratic Party, but I do think if the Democrats don't have a full, 100%, clean sweep across all of those major contests, I think that's going to give Trump a very powerful talking point, that he is not nearly as disliked or vulnerable as the Democrats would like him to be for their political purposes. And that, to your other point about maps and stuff, 2026 may not look like 2018. That the second Trump term, sort of political response from the opposition, I think if they don't have a clean sweep, I they have a much harder argument to make that is as galvanized as it was in Trump 1.0.

For sure. And that's one of the reasons the White House is focused on one thing overall we didn't talk about, that's redistricting. So we have an eye on the California part of that. But of course, this is not 2018 in terms of the midterms. That's why they're trying to sort of adjust the map. But you're right about New Jersey. If the Republicans win there, the Trump operation will seize upon that. It's a place where he narrowed his defeat by 10 percentage points from 2020 to 2024. That is significant.

One of the largest growths of his support across the country.

Of a blue state, absolutely.

And so that will be a calling card for him to say, look, these Trump policies work. But look, we shall see. Whenever Trump's name is not on the ballot, it is far different than when it is.

Jeff, Eva, thanks so much for your time. Appreciate it.

Thank you.

My pleasure, David. Thank you.

That's it for this week's edition of the CNN Political Briefing. We'll be back with a new episode next Friday. Thanks so much for listening.