Here's the latest
• Record-shattering Isaias has strengthened into a strong Category 2 hurricane and could become a Category 3 “major hurricane” soon. Concern is growing for a stronger landfall on the northern Gulf Coast this evening.
• Widespread power outages are expected, and up to 7 feet of storm surge and up to 15 inches of rain is possible at the coast, with tornadoes popping up with little notice.
• States of emergency have been issued in parts of Alabama, Florida and Georgia, and mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for several coastal counties.
• Some Florida airports are scheduled to close ahead of the storm. Amtrak services in parts of Louisiana and Alabama are also disrupted.
Hurricane Isaias is expected to strengthen significantly over Thursday and Friday. Even if it weakens slightly before landfall, the storm will remain dangerous along the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Isaias is due to make landfall late Friday night into Saturday as a strong Category two storm. A state of emergency has been declared across Florida and Alabama.
Meteorologist Ali Van Fleet explains how a weakening hurricane can still grow in size and threaten a broader region with rain, storm surge and even tornadoes.
All hurricanes are dangerous, but their impacts aren't always created equal. Meteorologist Chris Warren explains how storm size and storm strength influence the impacts communities experience before, during and after landfall.
To help people prepare for hurricanes, scientists studied 40 tropical cyclones and found storm surge hits in eight ways.
Concern is growing for a stronger Isaias at landfall
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is painting a more serious picture of Isaias’ landfall Friday night.
The storm could now come ashore as a high-end Category 2 hurricane, or near Category 3 strength. Earlier forecasts showed a landfall in the Category 1 to lower-end Category 2 range.
This would tick up the severity of impacts at landfall: If Isaias is stronger, it will pack more destructive winds and push more storm surge on land.
The next 12 hours are crucial because Isaias is still strengthening, but will be confronted by storm-disrupting winds in the atmosphere. If those winds kick in later than expected, Isaias’s strength will remain unchecked for longer, resulting in a stronger landfall.
Isaias is now a high-end Category 2 hurricane
Isaias is strengthening again and its sustained winds are now at 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 4 a.m. CT update.
Category 2 hurricanes have wind speeds between 96 and 110 mph, so Isaias is now on the brink of Category 3 major hurricane territory.
It’s forecast to hit that threshold sometime this morning, likely in the next few hours. Isaias will be the first major hurricane (Category 3-plus) in the Atlantic since last October’s Hurricane Melissa.
NWS Mobile warns of power outages and 'multiple hours' of life-threatening storm surge
Isaias could damage mobile homes, cause considerable roof damage and topple large trees, leaving roads impassable and triggering widespread power outages, the National Weather Service office in Mobile warns.
Along the western Florida Panhandle, life-threatening storm surge could cause structures and roads along the coast to become inundated for multiple hours.
Wind impacts are expected late this afternoon into tonight. The storm is moving quickly, so the good news is that conditions should improve by Saturday morning.
Don't sleep on Isaias' flood threat
Wind speeds get all of the headlines because they determine a hurricane’s category, but don’t discount the water threat. Flooding rain and storm surge combine to cause about two-thirds of deaths in the US from Atlantic tropical cyclones, according to NOAA.
Isaias could push water 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Indian Pass, Florida, if peak surge coincides with high tide.
Heavy rain will bring flood danger well inland as well. Four to 8 inches of rain are forecast from southern Alabama through southwestern Georgia, including the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, where rain 15 inches of rain could pile up in isolated spots.
Couple says weekend wedding will go ahead despite Isaias threat
As Hurricane Isaias threatens Florida’s Gulf Coast, one couple said they’re getting married in Pensacola this weekend, “no matter what.”
“We’re going to make it happen,” groom Jeff Ackerman told CNN’s Rafael Romo on Thursday, adding the ceremony could take place “in a backyard” or “a parking lot” if necessary.
Bride Cassy Cooper said they had planned a beach wedding in Pensacola, but the storm has already forced last-minute changes. “It still could be canceled and we don’t really have a backup plan for that,” she said.
Despite the uncertainty, the couple said family and friends have still made the trip to attend the wedding. “All that matters is that we’re getting married,” Cooper said.
Isaias is expected to weaken before landfall. That will expand its danger
Isaias is forecast to run into some storm-disrupting wind shear the closer it gets to the US coast. This shear — changes in wind speed or direction at different levels of the atmosphere — is going to push Isaias a little off-kilter, focusing the worst of its wind and rain on the north side of the storm.
This lopsidedness will weaken Isaias — but also expand the reach of its winds.
A stronger storm tends to stay compact, like an ice skater spinning. Try to knock that same skater off balance, they’ll put out their arms to steady themself.
That’s basically the same thing we’re expecting with Isaias’ winds — instead of staying confined closer to the center, they’ll stretch out farther. More places could be hit with Isaias’ strong winds as a result, even if the storm is a bit weaker overall.
Isaias could knock out power well inland
Isaias is guaranteed to knock out power and down trees where it makes landfall along the coast, but outages could extend further inland into parts of the Southeast.
Isaias will be moving fast and grow larger before it moves inland. Those are two of the factors that will fuel wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph that will spread northward into parts of central and northern Alabama, northern Georgia and northeast Mississippi on Saturday.
Those gusts are nowhere near as fierce as what the coast will see, but it could be enough to cause at least isolated to scattered power outages, particularly in Alabama.
Isaias could spawn tornadoes after dark Friday, heightening the danger
Tornadoes could develop late Friday into early Saturday across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and nearby southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. The threat could continue through Saturday night farther inland across eastern Alabama and Georgia, even as Isaias weakens.
Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as daytime tornadoes, a 2022 study found. Darkness makes them harder to spot, and sleeping residents can miss warnings.
Make sure you and your loved ones enable phone emergency alerts and have a weather radio or other ways to receive alerts that can wake you.
Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall this weekend. Here's what to know
The record-breaking Hurricane Isaias is getting stronger as it heads north to the Gulf Coast. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday as the season’s first Atlantic hurricane.
Here’s what you should know:
- What to expect: Isaias is forecast to briefly become a major hurricane — a Category 3 or stronger storm — and then weaken some before making landfall late Friday night.
- Evacuations and closures: Officials have asked those within the storm’s forecasted path to evacuate and residents boarded up their homes, filled sandbags and stocked up on supplies. Some energy companies including Chevron and Shell are shutting down production at some offshore facilities and evacuating workers. Schools in the region have also announced closures, some Florida airports have preemptively closed, and all trains along the Amtrak Mardi Gras Service line, which runs between New Orleans, Louisiana and Mobile, Alabama, are canceled through Sunday. Some areas are under states of emergency.
- Forecasted threats: Isaias is forecast to bring flooding, dangerous storm surge and even some tornadoes to the Gulf Coast. It’s expected to grow larger as it nears the coast, so wet and windy conditions are likely across a wide area of the Southeast through Saturday. Isaias could also knock out power and down trees where it makes landfall along the coast, but outages could extend further inland into parts of the Southeast.
CNN’s Briana Waxman, Maria Aguilar Prieto, Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce, Sara Smart, Rebekah Riess, Brandon Miller, Taylor Ward and Kate S. Petersen contributed reporting.
Emergency declared in several states
Several places have declared a state of emergency as they brace for Hurricane Isaias to make landfall.
Florida
On Tuesday, Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents of the state to make a plan and stock their emergency supply kits.
The state of emergency declaration, issued for 25 counties, “ensures communities have the time and resources necessary to prepare for potential severe weather impacts to the Panhandle and Big Bend region of Florida,” he said in a post on X.
Florida also has a State Assistance Information Line (SAIL) available for anyone needing assistance or information: 1-800-342-3557
Alabama
Gov. Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency for 40 counties. “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take preparations seriously,” she said.
Ivey also announced that state offices and buildings will close at noon Friday in several counties, according to a statement.
Georgia
Gov. Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency Thursday. The order, which applies to the entire state of Georgia, allows for storm preparations and the mobilization of up to 500 National Guard troops if necessary, Kemp said at a news conference Thursday.
“We don’t believe we’re going to need this, but we want to have that option should something change with the storm and its movement over the next 24 hours or so, and certainly, as the storm hits,” he said.
How Hurricane Isaias created this spectacular sunset in Atlanta
A remarkable sunset unfolded over Atlanta on Thursday. CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam explains how distant Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf created the spectacle.
Storms with "I" names are particularly damaging. Here's why
Isaias is in infamous company as an “I” named storm.
The list of names runs alphabetically, so “I” goes to the ninth named storm — which usually forms around the peak of Atlantic hurricane season in mid-September, when conditions are primed to fuel powerful storms. And since 1953, Atlantic storms with “I” names reach Category 3 strength or higher more frequently than any other letter.
Ivan in 2004, Irma in 2017, Ida in 2021 and most recently Ian in 2022 each reached at least Category 4 strength and went on to make landfall in the United States. Ian struck southwestern Florida with 150 mph winds, resulted in 150 deaths and caused over $112 billion in damage, becoming the costliest hurricane in the state’s history.
Storms that are especially deadly or damaging have their name retired from the official list. Thirteen names starting with I have been retired, more than any other letter.
Isaias formed on October 6, weeks later than usual for an “I” storm, thanks to this year’s super El Niño putting a damper on storms in the Atlantic. It’s currently forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast this weekend.
The latest
Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a Category 2 on Thursday afternoon, putting the northern Gulf Coast on alert for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall on Friday night.
The hurricane has 105 mph winds and could peak as a Category 3 “major hurricane” with 115 mph winds by Thursday night or early Friday. It will likely weaken as it draws closer to the coast but is expected to still be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings, which predict 74 mph or stronger winds and life-threatening coastal flooding within 36 hours, are in effect for coastal parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, which are expected to endure the storm’s worst conditions.
Impacts to expect
Rain and flooding
Isaias’ heaviest rain will lash southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, so the biggest flash flood threat is expected there. The hardest-hit areas could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 15 inches in spots.
The storm’s fast movement plus dry ground will prevent flash flooding from being too widespread across the rest of the Southeast, but significant impacts are still possible in limited areas. Most locations can expect 1 to 3 inches, but localized totals up to 5 inches are possible.
The downpours will start to ramp up along the coast as soon as Friday and then continue to soak the region while creeping farther inland through the weekend.
Friday:
Saturday:
Wind
Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or stronger, with higher gusts, could reach the Gulf Coast in the daytime on Friday as Isaias approaches the coastline.
Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more are likely Friday night into early Saturday morning where Isaias makes landfall. Numerous power outages and downed trees are possible from southeast Mississippi to southern Alabama and the western Panhandle.
Wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph could spread well inland across parts of central and northern Alabama, northern and western Georgia and northeast Mississippi on Saturday. That could be enough to cause at least isolated to scattered power outages and topple some trees, particularly in Alabama.
Storm surge
The biggest push of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will be near and just east of where the storm’s center makes landfall on Friday night.
Locations on the coast from eastern Mississippi to Alabama, including Mobile Bay and the western Florida Panhandle, could see 5 to 7 feet of inundation above normally dry ground if the peak surge happens at high tide. This could flood roads and damage structures near the coast.
Tornadoes
Isaias will produce at least a few tornadoes within its rainbands Friday night through Saturday. Areas to the east of the storm’s center will be most at risk for these tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes tend to be short-lived and sometimes pop up with little notice.
The greatest tornado threat is expected in the areas shaded darkest orange in the maps below.
Friday:
Saturday:
