Here's the latest
- Record-shattering Isaias has rapidly strengthened into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane en route to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast by the weekend. The storm could spawn tornadoes on its eastern side.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 25 counties, urging residents to prepare. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in two counties in the Florida panhandle. In neighboring Alabama, Gov. Kay Ivey announced a state of emergency for 40 counties.
- Isaias could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by early Friday. It will weaken before making landfall as a dangerous hurricane by early Saturday morning.
Isaias continues to strengthen
Hurricane Isaias’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph, according to the 5 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Isaias forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 over the Gulf later today, then peak overnight at near Category 3, or major hurricane, intensity. How strong it gets will depend on how much Isaias can fend off increasing winds in the atmosphere that can rip storms apart.
Isaias is still expected to weaken some before landfall on Friday night, but that won’t reduce its danger. A life-threatening storm surge is expected at the coast and strong winds could down trees and knock out power well inland across parts of the South.
How residents are preparing for the hurricane
A state of emergency has been declared across Florida and Alabama.
Hurricane Isaias is due to make landfall late Friday night into Saturday as a strong Category two storm. A state of emergency has been declared across Florida and Alabama.
Hurricane breaks a record
Isaias is now the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season and has shattered the record for the latest first hurricane formation in the basin.
The previous record holders were 2002’s Hurricane Gustav and 2013’s Hurricane Humberto, both of which formed on September 11.
It’s also the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin in nearly a year: Hurricane Melissa was 2025’s final hurricane and it formed on October 25.
Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, helping to fuel the storm, but hostile atmospheric conditions near the coast are forecast to weaken Isaias a bit before it makes landfall Friday night or early Saturday morning. It’s still expected to come ashore as a high-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.
Flashes of lightning punctuate Isaias’ swirling clouds
Flurries of lightning flashed through Isaias as it strengthened into the first hurricane of the season overnight, satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere showed.
Isaias will grow larger as it near the coast
Isaias will grow larger as it nears the coast, which means windy conditions could be felt across a wide area of the South, especially Friday night through Saturday.
Tropical storm-force winds — 39 mph or greater — could arrive on the coast by midday Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected near and just inland from where the center makes landfall by late Friday.
The wind could down trees and knock out power both at the coast and over 100 miles inland in parts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi.
Beach homes along Alabama Gulf Coast urged to evacuate
Popular vacation spots along Alabama’s southern shores are battening down ahead of the expected impacts of Isaias, which is forecast to make landfall on the US Gulf Coast later this week.
Dauphin Island has issued a voluntary evacuation order starting Thursday evening for approximately 350 to 400 homes, city Public Safety Supervisor Troy Gorlott told CNN. The recommended evacuations include primarily low beach areas in the west end of the island that are made up of vacation homes and rentals, Gorlott said.
People in coastal and low-lying areas in neighboring Baldwin County are also “encouraged to begin preparing and relocate if needed,” the county’s emergency management agency said.
Both Baldwin and Dauphin Island’s Mobile County are among the 40 Alabama counties under a state of emergency Gov. Kay Ivey declared Wednesday.
Isaias expected to bring dangerous storm surge
Powerful winds from Isaias will build up Gulf water and propel it toward the coast, pushing it onshore in what’s called storm surge.
Coastal flooding could start as soon as Friday morning, but the biggest push of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will be near and just east of where the storm’s center makes landfall on Friday night.
Locations on the coast from eastern Mississippi to Alabama, including Mobile Bay and the western Florida Panhandle, could see 5 to 7 feet of inundation above normally dry ground if the peak surge happens at high tide. This could flood roads and damage structures near the coast.
Flooding rain threat
Three to 7 inches of rain is expected during the storm, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Up to 5 inches of rain could fall in other parts of the Southeast as far north and east as the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley through Saturday.
The storm will move quickly, which will help keep flooding from being too widespread, but significant impacts are possible in limited areas. Isaias’ heaviest rain will lash southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, upping the flash flood threat there.
Isaias rapidly intensifies into season’s first Atlantic hurricane
Isaias has rapidly intensified into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, putting the northern Gulf Coast on alert for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
Rapid intensification is when a storm’s sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
It could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by Thursday night or early Friday. It will likely weaken a bit after that, but still be a formidable hurricane when it makes landfall Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings, which predict 74 mph or stronger winds and life-threatening coastal flooding within 36 hours, were issued late Wednesday for parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
Oil companies halt Gulf production and evacuate workers ahead of Isaias
Chevron and Shell are shutting down production at some offshore facilities and evacuating workers as Isaias approaches.
Chevron said Wednesday it has begun shutting down production at four Gulf facilities and is evacuating all associated personnel. Production at its five other Gulf facilities remains at normal levels, though some additional workers are being brought ashore.
Shell is evacuating all workers and halting production at its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox platforms, Reuters reported Wednesday.
The moves expand precautions announced Tuesday, when Shell said it was evacuating nonessential personnel from six offshore platforms. BP also said Tuesday it was removing nonessential workers and securing its offshore facilities.
Isaias could spawn tornadoes after dark Friday, heightening the danger
Tornadoes could develop late Friday into early Saturday across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and nearby southern Alabama, though cooler, more stable air could limit the threat.
Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as daytime tornadoes, a 2022 study found. Darkness makes them harder to spot, and sleeping residents can miss warnings.
Make sure you and your loved ones enable phone emergency alerts and have a weather radio or other way to receive alerts that can wake you.
Gulf Shores urges visitors to leave as storm threatens crowded festival destination
Gulf Shores has asked all non-residents to leave ahead of the storm, a particularly important concern because the city was hosting the annual National Shrimp Festival, which was canceled due to the storm.
Grant Brown, a public information officer for the City of Gulf Shores, tells CNN the city normally has about 18,000 residents, but the festival has pushed the population to more than 50,000. Officials are concerned that if residents need to evacuate at the same time visitors are trying to leave, traffic could quickly overwhelm the bridges and transportation system.
The city is monitoring the W.C. Holmes Memorial Bridge along State Highway 59 and says it will remain open unless conditions become too dangerous. Brown says the bridge will close in both directions if sustained winds reach 45 miles per hour.
Crews will begin pulling lifeguard stands off the beach on Thursday, using heavy equipment to move them out of harm’s way. The city expects to fly double-red flags and increase beach patrols to keep people out of the water as conditions deteriorate. Public facilities will begin shutting down Thursday at noon.
Brown says their biggest concern is rising water, with the ground already saturated from heavy rain. Officials are expecting five to seven feet of storm surge around high tide.
And the surf could become especially dangerous. Brown says waves could reach 20 feet Friday, creating what he described as an aggressive beach environment that could destroy sand dunes and damage infrastructure.
The latest
Isaias has rapidly intensified into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, putting the northern Gulf Coast on alert for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid intensification is when a storm’s sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
It could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by Thursday night or early Friday. It will likely weaken a bit after that, but still be a formidable hurricane when it makes landfall Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings, which predict 74 mph or stronger winds and life-threatening coastal flooding within 36 hours, were issued late Wednesday for parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
The forecast
Check the “Local Impacts” tab for information on rain, wind, storm surge and tornado threats.
Our confidence in Isaias’ track and strength forecast is increasing. Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, which will fuel the storm, but its strength at landfall will likely be limited by hostile conditions in the atmosphere.
Track
We have high confidence that the system will track north, impacting coastal areas from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.
Landfall
Where exactly Isaias makes landfall will hinge on how quickly the system tracks toward the coast, limiting our confidence a bit. We have high confidence it will be somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Landfall is most likely sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Strength
We have medium confidence in the strength forecast because it’s still uncertain how much the hostile conditions in the atmosphere will affect Isaias.
Isaias is forecast to become a potent hurricane while over the open Gulf, but conditions near the US coast — like storm-killing winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere — are expected to damage it before the storm makes landfall. If those hostile conditions pack less of a punch, Isaias could be stronger at landfall.
Either way, an impactful hurricane landfall is looking likely.
Impacts to expect
Rain and flooding
Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Louisiana and Mississippi are most at risk of heavy rain from this system. The downpours could start to ramp up along the coast as soon as Friday and then continue to soak the region while creeping farther inland through the weekend.
The hardest hit areas could see 3 to 7 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches in localized spots.
Some of the heaviest rain could impact areas from southern Mississippi through the Florida Panhandle. A Level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rain (the purple area in the graphic below) is in effect there Friday. The risk of flash flooding will expand farther inland over the Southeast Saturday.
Friday:
Saturday:
Wind
Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more, with higher gusts, could reach the Gulf Coast by Friday evening as Isaias heads for the coastline. Wind this strong can take down some trees and cause power outages.
Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more are likely near and just inland of where Isaias makes landfall, but it’s still too early to pinpoint exactly where that will happen. The strongest winds will likely hit coastal areas from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, depending on the hurricane’s track.
Isaias will grow larger as it nears the coast, which means windy conditions will spread across a large portion of the Southeast later Friday and Saturday.
Storm surge
Storm surge is possible Friday night but its severity hinges on exactly how strong Isaias gets and when it makes landfall. Surge levels will be higher if Isaias comes ashore near high tide.
Tornadoes
Isaias could produce tornadoes within its rainbands later Friday night through Saturday. Areas to the east of the storm’s center will be most at risk for these tornadoes, which should largely be short-lived and on the lower end of the EF Scale.
