Here's the latest
• War talks: Efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict are “in very progressive stages,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said, adding that drafts of a potential agreement are “being circulated” but that there are no direct talks between the two sides. President Donald Trump said yesterday he had no time constraints on negotiations.
• Strait of Hormuz: Meanwhile, Iran’s goal in its talks with Oman “is to set temporary arrangements” — lasting up to three months — where Tehran can control a route through the strait. A cargo vessel is reported to have lost power after being struck by an unknown projectile in the waterway early this morning local time.
• Energy crisis: A total of 2.6 billion barrels of crude have been lost from global supplies during the war, according to reported remarks from the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Aramco.
Oil prices fall below $80 per barrel
Oil prices fell Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC he thinks a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz could happen “today or tomorrow.”
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped more than 5% to $79.50 per barrel, falling below the $80-mark for the first time since July 13. Brent was most recently down 4%, at $80.50 per barrel, paring some losses.
WTI, the US oil benchmark, fell more than 5.5% to $75.77 per barrel, also its lowest level in three weeks. WTI was most recently down 4.3%, at $76.90 per barrel, paring some losses.
Traders leaned in to Bessent’s comments, although it remains to be seen how tensions between Washington and Tehran develop. Efforts to resolve the conflict are “in very progressive stages,” according to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry.
Traders have been closely watching shipping traffic out of the Strait of Hormuz to gauge whether oil flows are resuming. Shipping analysts are less optimistic than Bessent.
Oil prices have been on a rollercoaster across the past few months. Brent surged last month to settle at $100.69 per barrel on July 23 before retreating in recent weeks as tensions intensified and then softened.
Stocks soared Tuesday: The Dow was up 800 points, or 1.5%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 1.7%.
US-Iran draft deal circulates, but Hormuz tensions grow. Catch up here
Drafts for a possible deal between the US and Iran are being circulated, according to Qatari officials. But in the critical Strait of Hormuz, tensions are continuing to grow.
Here is a look at today’s top headlines:
- Drafts of a potential agreement between the US and Iran are “being circulated” and “in very progressive stages,” a spokesperson from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry told reporters. The ministry emphasized that this is for a short-term diplomatic solution, and that they “don’t have anything on the books when it comes to direct talks.”
- Iran “will not stand idly by” and allow the US to continue its naval blockade of Iranian exports and vessels, a senior military official warned. Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television that Tehran will not allow any shipments to traverse through the critical Strait of Hormuz, other than on its stipulated route. Rezaei added that US warships traveling through other routes will be targeted.
- Shipping analysts are less upbeat than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the volume of tanker traffic currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping analysts Kpler said only a handful of ships are transiting the strait daily, usually fewer than 10. This is less optimistic than Bessent, who told CNBC on Tuesday that “we saw quite a few ships coming out even now” and that a deal to restore traffic through the waterway could be reached “today or tomorrow.”
Rubio: "Progress made ... but not finality" on Strait of Hormuz agreement
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there has been “progress made … but not finality” on an agreement for free transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The top US diplomat on Tuesday expressed hope that such an agreement “will happen very shortly.”
He said the US was involved in the negotiations between Iran and Oman “on how more ships are able to go through there safely as we move towards these longer-term talks about denuclearization.”
Rubio claimed the Strait is “open” and said oil is moving through the critical waterway but said the effort to increase traffic through there is “the immediate deal and the one that we’re focused on.”
“The denuclearization of Iran is the ultimate deal,” Rubio said at a photo spray alongside Paraguay’s vice president.
Iran's former foreign minister urges leaders to grasp "window for diplomacy" with US
Leadership in Iran should capitalize on a “window for diplomacy” with the US, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said, suggesting that the current stage of the conflict may help Tehran negotiate itself into a better position on the world stage.
Zarif, who does not currently serve within the Iranian political system, made his comments amid a growing debate within Iran’s political establishment over the country’s post-war direction.
While pragmatists see diplomacy with Washington as an opportunity, hardliners have criticized renewed engagement, highlighting deep divisions over Iran’s future.
“Under current conditions, even Iran’s friends in the Global South are reluctant to openly support Iran against the United States and the West,” he claimed.
Going forward, Iran needs to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in negotiations, but not keep it closed in a way that turns the world against it, Zarif suggested.
The country should establish a coalition with countries including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and also rebuild its relations with Europe, he continued, adding that Iranian cooperation with Russia and China “should be based on the intrinsic value of these relationships, not on Iran’s need or weakness.”
Shipping analysts less optimistic than US treasury secretary on Strait of Hormuz
Shipping analysts are less upbeat than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the volume of tanker traffic currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
“Even though things are still a little dicey there over the past few days, we saw quite a few ships coming out even now,” Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday. He also said a deal between the US and Iran to restore the flow of ships in the strait could be reached “today or tomorrow.”
Shipping analysts say that only a handful of ships are transiting the strait daily, usually fewer than 10.
Seven crossings used the Iranian route, she said. Kpler data showed that only two of the nine transits were by tankers.
However, some vessels are transiting with transponders turned off, complicating analysis.
“Commercial movements through the Omani traffic lane are limited but continue, with estimated crude flows remaining at approximately 3–5 million barrels per day, indicating that the waterway has not yet transitioned into a fully enforced exclusion regime,” marine analysts Marisks said Monday.
Before the conflict, an average 20 million barrels a day left the Persian Gulf through Hormuz, accounting for about 20% of global supply.
He estimated global markets were losing more than 100 million barrels a week due to constricted traffic through the strait.
What Trump and Iran have said about talks since planned strikes were called off
Since last weekend, US President Donald Trump has made a range of statements regarding the status of negotiations with Iran, as officials in Tehran denied any current talks and said they are instead aiming to strike a deal with Oman to open a route through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Here is what both parties have said:
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The US president said
- Trump responded calling Iran’s leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” on social media on Tuesday. He later insisted that this is Iran’s “last chance” to sign a deal, but he also said he has no time constraints on negotiations because he’s not seeking re-election.
- Tehran said it is now focusing on talks with Oman over a temporary route through the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said this would be a single corridor, rather than the two routes – one close to the Iranian coast and one close to Oman’s – that had been discussed previously.
- On Tuesday, a member of the Iranian negotiating committee said the goal was an arrangement lasting one to three months “where Iran is dominant.” Saeed Ajorlu told Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, “The basis of the negotiations is to establish Iranian arrangements because security, demining, and maritime services are handled by Iran.”
CNN’s Tim Lister, Aida Karimi and August Phillips contributed to this report
Drafts of potential US-Iran agreement are "being circulated," Qatar says
Efforts to resolve the conflict between the US and Iran are “in very progressive stages,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told reporters on Tuesday, adding that drafts of a potential agreement are “being circulated.”
Asked about conflicting statements issued by US and Iranian officials about whether or not negotiations are underway, al-Ansari said: “We can confirm that the efforts are still ongoing with all the parties. We are looking towards a diplomatic resolution as we are speaking right now.”
There are “current efforts on the ground” to resolve the crisis that are in “very progressive stages,” al-Ansari said.
Countries across the region are “working together towards solving this issue,” the spokesperson said, adding that his country is coordinating “very closely” with Oman to “facilitate the talks between both sides and exchanging ideas and exchanging drafts between both sides.”
Mediators’ current focus is finding a “short-term resolution” that would bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table, al-Ansari said, noting that “right now, we don’t have anything on the books when it comes to direct talks.”
“We are hopeful that if we can get a resumption of the talks anytime soon, we’d be able to push forward towards a major deal that would help us walk back into a situation of peace in our region,” he told reporters.
A look at the previous times Trump has threatened and later called off strikes on Iran
President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he called off planned strikes on Iran.
His apparent reversal was not the first time during the conflict he’d threatened attacks before calling them off.
Here’s a look at some of the previous times this has happened:
- On March 21, Trump said the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. On March 23, shortly before Trump’s deadline was set to expire, the president said the US and Iran had held “productive conversations” and that he would hold off on striking energy sites for five days.
- On April 7, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not agree to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, a two-week ceasefire between the countries was announced.
- On April 21, the day before the ceasefire was set to expire, Trump said he expected “to be bombing” if negotiators couldn’t reach a deal. Later that day, he extended the ceasefire.
- On May 17, Trump warned that “for Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” The next day, he said that he would “hold off” on a plan to attack Iran, citing a request from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- On June 11, Trump said that the US military would be hitting Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” adding that it would also “be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points.” Hours later, Trump said he was canceling the strikes because “final points” of an agreement between the two sides had been approved.
- On August 1, Trump said the US was “locked and loaded and ready” to attack Iran “at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II.” Despite this, he said, “I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
CNN’s Izzy Lippolis, Alejandra Jaramillo, Kevin Liptak, Aileen Graef, Kit Maher, Betsy Klein, Alayna Treene and Kaitlan Collins contributed to this reporting.
What to know about the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran seeks to control a new route
A crucial bargaining chip throughout the US and Israel’s war with Iran has been that of the Strait of Hormuz — effectively closed by Tehran since the fighting began in late February.
As Tehran and Washington issue mixed messages, the status of the strait remains at the core of the conflict.
A member of Iran’s negotiating committee said earlier that Tehran is talking to Oman “to set temporary arrangements” lasting one to three months “where Iran is dominant” over the waterway.
The narrow waterway passing between Iran and Oman serves as the main route for shipping crude from oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait to the rest of the world.
Iran controls the strait’s northern side. About 20 million barrels of oil, or about one-fifth of daily global production, used to flow through the strait every day, according to the US Energy Information Administration, which calls the channel a “critical oil chokepoint.” According to the EIA, “very few alternative options exist to move oil out of the strait if it is closed.”
The strait also carries about one-fifth of global trade in liquefied natural gas.
Energy analysts have warned that oil and natural gas prices are likely to remain elevated until the strait is passable, even as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seek to expand other routes to get their crude to market.
Both Iran and Oman have claims to the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is in talks with Oman to establish a safe, “temporary” route for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian negotiator said the agreement, which could last from one to three months, would create a situation “where Iran is dominant.”
The vital waterway has been effectively closed by Iran since the US and Israel began the war back in February. It is the main route for shipping crude from oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the rest of the world.
Both Tehran and Muscat have Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in the strait.
According to the United Nations, a state has “sovereign rights” to explore, exploit, conserve and manage the natural resources of the waters in its EEZ.
However, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), “ships of all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea.”
A coastal state should not “hamper the innocent passage of foreign ships through the territorial sea,” it says, except in specific outlined scenarios. It may “take the necessary steps in its territorial sea to prevent passage which is not innocent,” UNCLOS outlines.
US attacks on civilian infrastructure will harm Iranians more during summer, expert says
Iranians will suffer greatly in the intense summer heat if US President Donald Trump decides to bomb civilian infrastructure, a regional expert has warned.
“If Trump… would strike at Iranian desalination plants, power grids, oil installations, much of this clearly being war crimes, then the suffering of the population is going to skyrocket,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an American think tank.
“In the absence of electricity and these very hot summer months, the suffering of the population will be immense,” he told CNN on Tuesday.
His comments come after Trump said he canceled his weekend strikes on Monday. Had the US gone through with those attacks, Trump said, “There’d be essentially very little left.”
Temperatures in southern Iran have recently soared above 50 degrees Celsius (120 Fahrenheit), and officials are calling for Iranians to limit their use of air conditioning, according to Iranian state media.
Desalination plants across the Persian Gulf were struck on numerous occasions during the Iran-US war. In July, US strikes damaged a desalination plant in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, leaving 20 villages without water, according to the deputy governor. That strike came after Kuwait said Iran attacked one of its water facilities.
Iran threatens to strike US navy if blockade continues
Iran’s armed forces “will not stand idly by” and allow the naval blockade of Iran to continue, according to Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
The US naval blockade was reimposed last month after the collapse of a ceasefire agreed as part of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran.
US Central Command said Monday that under the blockade it had redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two.
In an interview on Iranian state television, Rezaei also said Iran “will under no circumstances allow any route through the Strait of Hormuz other than Iran’s route to be opened.”
Rezaei accused Washington of violating the memorandum of understanding and launching attacks without first referring the issue to the dispute resolution committee.
The US resumed strikes on Iran early in July after Tehran attacked several ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz along a route it had not authorized.
Rezaei said the US should begin fulfilling conditions already agreed upon in the memorandum, which was signed in June.
“They should start by returning our funds, declaring they are not at war with Iran, and ceasing the creation of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. Allow us to assist global trade through our own arrangements, even better than before.”
When the US starts fulfilling its obligations “which they had briefly begun to implement for a few days as a preliminary step, we will view it as a change in behavior,” Rezaei added.
Vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz, as 2.6bn barrels of crude lost during war. Catch up
US President Donald Trump said yesterday that it is Iran’s “last chance” to “sign a good document,” calling Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” after Tehran contradicted his claim that negotiations would resume.
Meanwhile, a cargo vessel has reported being attacked about 23 miles (37 kilometers) northeast of Khasab, Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Here’s the latest:
- The cargo vessel reported being struck by an “unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO said, and suffered a complete blackout, according to a report from the Marisks maritime risk management group.
- Around 2.6 billion barrels of crude have been lost from global supplies during the war with Iran, the CEO of the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Aramco, has said, according to Reuters.
- A member of Iran’s negotiating committee has said that Iran’s goal in talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz “is to set temporary arrangements” lasting one to three months “where Iran is dominant.”
- Iran was ready to attack three sites in Ukraine over a claimed strike on one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea in late July, a top military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said yesterday, Iran’s state-linked Press TV reported.
CNN’s Kathleen Magramo, Brad Lendon, Eleni Giokos, Tim Lister, Aida Karimi, Kit Maher and Kevin Liptak contributed to this reporting.
One mistake Trump hasn't made on Iran
Unless Donald Trump finds a way out of his box on Iran, history may come to regard his choice to wage war as a presidency-defining error.
But he has so far avoided one potential dire mistake: massively escalating the conflict past his capacity to control it.
History shows that presidents who intensify wars in pursuit of a way out, or to protect their own prestige or America’s reputation, descend a slippery slope. In Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, they often did so reluctantly, in wars that could no longer be won.
Not for the first time, Trump finds himself at a three-way intersection in a war now being driven by Iran’s refusal to surrender or seriously negotiate.
- If diplomacy keeps failing, is he willing to perpetually extend the so-far inconclusive campaign of air strikes, fragile ceasefires, and US and Iranian maritime blockades that rumbles on but doesn’t end the war?
- Or does he step up the US offensive by lifting his own limits and going beyond mostly military targets to take out Iranian civilian and infrastructure assets — crossing the Rubicon into the use of ground troops in limited operations?
- The third option would be deeply painful: accepting that he, and the United States, would be best served by cutting losses and walking away from the conflict with his major goals unresolved.
Each question serves up unpalatable political and strategic answers, which explains why he’s still stuck in a war he can’t afford to win and can’t afford to lose.
Read the full analysis here.
Iran must control Hormuz route being negotiated with Oman, official says
Iran’s goal in talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz “is to set temporary arrangements” lasting one to three months “where Iran is dominant,” according to a member of Iran’s negotiating committee.
Tehran has reiterated that it is not negotiating with the United States over the status of the strait but seeking a bilateral deal with Oman, which lies along the southern side of the strait.
He added: “We assert that the legal regime for passage through the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war state,” when no state controlled shipping through the critical waterway.
Ajorlu said the US had violated Article 5 of the memorandum agreed in June by opening a southern corridor through the strait – close to the Omani coast.
The article states that “Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days, only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.”
“Article 5 must be settled first,” Ajorlu said. Other commitments in the memorandum regarding the end of the war, a ceasefire in Lebanon, sanctions waivers, frozen Iranian funds held abroad and the US blockade of Iranian ports “must be addressed before we move to the next steps. We are not in that position yet.”
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the route negotiated with Oman would be a single corridor, rather than two routes – one close to the Iranian coast and one close to Oman’s – that had been discussed previously.
This middle route is intended to be used temporarily until an agreement is reached on a fixed route, he added.
Cargo vessel loses power after being struck in Strait of Hormuz, report says
The cargo vessel struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz north of Oman suffered a complete blackout, according to a report from the Marisks maritime risk management group.
The MV Minoan Pioneer, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier, was struck around 2 a.m. Tuesday local time about 23 miles (37 kilometers) northeast of Khasab, Oman, in the strait, Marisks reported.
Earlier, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center (UKMTO) reported that a ship was struck in the same area, but did not identify the vessel.
“The reported impact resulted in a complete electrical blackout onboard, forcing the vessel to request immediate assistance,” Marisks said. The status of the crew was not known, it said.
Iran war sees 2.6 billion barrels of crude lost from global supply, Saudi Aramco CEO says
Amin Nasser, CEO of the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Aramco, said 2.6 billion barrels of crude have been lost from global supplies during the war with Iran, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Saudi Aramco reported a 44% increase in second-quarter net profit on Tuesday, over a period when the blocked export routes and fears about the wider conflict pushed crude prices higher.
Nasser said current trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at a tenth of pre-conflict levels, adding that the world will continue to lose more than 100 million barrels of crude for each week the passage is closed.
If the Strait of Hormuz were open today, it could take up to 18 months to replenish depleted inventories, Reuters reported Nasser as saying.
With global refining capacity already stretched, he warned that energy supply could face more severe pressure if refineries were to suffer any major unplanned or prolonged shutdowns.
Earlier last month, Aramco infrastructure was targeted by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and drone attacks from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
Nasser said the company will continue to capitalize on all export routes, including Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline in Egypt.
Iran was ready to strike three sites in Ukraine, top military adviser says
Iran was ready to attack three sites in Ukraine over a claimed strike on one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea in late July, a top military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Monday, Iran’s state-linked Press TV reported.
“We were ready to attack three areas in Ukraine,” Mohsen Rezaei said in an interview with Iranian state television. “But after they claimed it was a mistake, we halted our response to examine their claim,” Press TV reported him as saying.
Last week, Tehran accused Kyiv of striking an Iranian commercial vessel carrying a cargo of iron, killing a seafarer and injuring three others. Kyiv had said it conducted drone strikes on two Russian vessels carrying military cargo in the Caspian Sea.
Iranian officials had warned of retaliation, but the tension eased after a phone call between the two nations’ top diplomats, after which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his Ukrainian counterpart had assured him an attack on an Iranian ship was unintentional.
“Even if it was a mistake, it still requires compensation,” Rezaei added on Monday.
In the same interview, Rezaei said Iran is focused only on negotiations with Oman about the Strait of Hormuz, not with the United States.
“If the blockade continues, US forces will face casualties,” Rezaei said, adding that Washington “must change its behavior and honor its commitments.”
Another vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz, UK's maritime agency reports
Another vessel has reported being struck in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the organization that monitors marine traffic in the region.
A cargo vessel made a distress call on the VHF Channel 16 late early Tuesday local time, saying it was hit by “an unknown projectile,” said the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
The unnamed vessel was struck about 20 nautical miles (37 kilometers) northeast of Al Khasab, Oman, on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz, the UKMTO report said. It did not state who was responsible for the attack.
Some context: There has been a rise of attacks on vessels near Oman in recent days. On Friday, an unnamed tanker which was not under command was hit about 12 miles (20 kilometers) northeast of Oman’s Lima. The master of another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported seeing a splash and explosion nearby on Saturday.
Skirting the Red Sea comes with steep cost for tankers
With the Houthi threats against Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, some oil tankers are now forced to detour, a move that would increase the cost — and time — tremendously.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen last month said they would target Saudi shipping trying to transit the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti. Six Saudi-operated tankers have since diverted around Africa.
The cost? Higher fuel consumption at a time when energy prices remain inflated due to the war in Iran, fatter bills for crews, increased insurance premiums and fewer voyages each tanker can complete for the time being — all of which raise overall expenses.
The shipping tracker firm Kpler reported last week that since Houthis began targeting Saudi shipping on July 22, average Saudi crude flows through the Bab al-Mandeb had fallen 50%.
The disruption will also disproportionately affect Asian countries, as the chokepoint has become a key alternative route for Saudi crude exports to the region since disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler said.
Much like the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, hindering access to the Bab al-Mandeb underscores how even limited disruptions at one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints could have profound consequences for global shipping — and oil supply.
